RE: New Cory-Moruga ITR5 Mar 2026 14:24
Scorpion Geoscience for Snowcap-3 — worth reading the full document rather than just the RNS headline. Credit to Keith for his earlier summary which prompted me to dig further into the detail. A few key takeaways:
Resource base: 8.73 MMbbls 2U (P50) Unrisked Prospective Resources across H#1, H#2, H#3 and H#7 sands from a total PIIP of 37.1 MMbbls. As Keith rightly points out, these are restated from the Nov 2023 ITR — not new numbers — but geological confidence has been materially strengthened by access to a better quality legacy 3D PSTM seismic dataset. The combined unrisked total across the full Snowcap structure remains 14.31 MMbbls recoverable (2U + 2C). The earlier ITR was completed before PRD had acquired the T-Rex operatorship and increased its interest to 83.8%, with Touchstone retaining 16.2% non-operating, hence the minor upward revisions in this version.
The H#1 sand is the primary target and the numbers here are compelling. MW-112, just 1km south of the proposed SC-3 location, has 28m of net H#1 sand and recovered 342,492 bbls with an IP of 327 bopd. The ITR expects up to 30m of H#1 at SC-3. For context, SC-1 never reached H#1 at all — it was faulted out — and still managed initial rates of 1,100-1,450 bopd from just 2m of the shallower H#8 sand above. The new seismic shows significant thickening of the H#1-H#3 interval in the hangingwall at SC-3 — potentially up to 250m (820ft) gross Herrera interval versus the 180m (600ft) base case.
Keith makes an important point about the conservative assumptions in the ITR. The target sand thickness estimates are projected from old RD wells where logging was rudimentary and incomplete — in particular, resistivity data is missing, which could mean missed pay from additional intervals. The base case therefore likely understates what SC-3 will actually encounter. Similarly, quite harsh risking has been applied to other parameters. This is what you'd expect from a responsible independent evaluator working with incomplete historical data, but it does mean there's meaningful upside baked into the numbers if SC-3 delivers thicknesses closer to what MW-112 shows next door.
Flow rate expectations: base case 500 bopd, equipment being specified for up to 1,000 bopd, with the ITR noting potential for up to 2,000 bopd using modern completions. Higher reservoir pressures at Snowcap's deeper structural position versus Moruga West support the upper end. Full field plateau target of 3,500 bopd referenced based on Moruga West analogues.
Economics: at $60 WTI the single well model gives 44% IRR, 2.9-year payback, NPV10 of $7.024MM from H#1 and H#2 only. Still commercially attractive at $40 WTI with 19% IRR. As Keith notes, the financials were completed before the latest Gulf conflict — at $75 WTI keeping other parameters the same, that's roughly an additional $1M Year 1 profit from SC-3 alone. Current prices are well above the base case. PRD also retain up to $100MM of tax losses from recent mergers.