The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
How could NCM now make an offer for GGP having refused the 5%? They would look absurd. It looks as though SD gets his wish and we go mining. If we get an good alternative offer for GGP then NCM look nuts.
SD knows that GGP will soon be in play which is why he has been on a PR campaign for a week or so. Shaun was really saying I got you a good price for the 5% and you can trust me and my advisors to take on NCM and get you a good result for the 25%. NCM have a huge incentive to get this done because at any moment the POG could really take off (the euro starts to come unglued or the credit markets collapse affecting the big banks for instance) or we could bring out a stonking RNS covering one of our 100% tenements. The IIs seem to be catching the scent so it wouldn't take much to unleash a feeding frenzy and spoil NCM's plans.
Come on NCM give us £1 a share soon so we invest the proceeds into other goldies and make double bubble.
No doubt da boyz will pick a quiet moment to dump gold again but at some point like in 2020 we'll be unstoppable. How can we have negative interest rates of over 6% and gold and silver are marking time?
When the NCM offer comes through for GGP, which seems inevitable before the price of gold lifts off, then NCM will have a lot of very clever merchant bankers advising them on tactics. Eventually a final offer will be made which NCM can only increase after waiting for a year. 90% of holders need to accept the final offer for it to become unconditional. If enough of us refuse the offer it lapses and then the SP will drop as the offer premium disappears. NCM will then presumably hold on to the shares they have bought in the market to support the bid and could start a new bid after the year is up. Are there enough diehards Ukrainians to push NCM up to an acceptable price or will the Russians who just want to get their money back give in?
Remember MTL is one of the best leveraged investments on the POG. If inflation carries on and the gold price heads towards $2500 the debt is paid off by magic and the SP takes off.
The NCM SP will take off in this market before ours so they be tempted to make an all share offer for GGP to save cash. The constant increase in the Hav gold discoveries will more than make up for the dilution of the NCM shareholders.
When gold starts a bull run it's bullion that takes off, then the big producers, then the nearly producers, then the explorers. Finally, companies not connected to gold in any way put "gold" in their name to get a fund raise away. Our turn will come.
I've been in shares over the years where a large institution has wanted out and dripped shares into the market on any up days suppressing the rise and dispiriting the troops. For suppression you don't need that many shares, you just have to let the mms know you're in charge, buying back on the down days. We need something to swamp the seller and get momentum going in the opposite direction. A GDX buy in, a 3% announcement from an institution, director buying, another tenement hitting, something left field. More gold at Hav doesn't cut it any more. We must be due something good soon, it's been a long time.
The gold pundit that I follow reckons that gold will break out when we get over 1900 on a sustained basis. Then it's on to the all time high around 2100 and beyond. Gold stocks are hugely leveraged to the POG as any increase goes straight to the bottom line ie your net profit of $1200 per ounce suddenly jumps to $1400 etc. If gold breaks out the present NCM suppression falls apart and they will have to bid for us. They won't want to share the gold price bounty with us.
If NCM do come in with a bid for GGP there will likely be over £2bn to be returned to GGP shareholders. As soon as any announcement is made tiddlers like UFO, Panther and XTR are likely to get a bid and some shareholders may cash in their chips rather than stay and fight for fear of missing the boat.
Of course not but large companies can exercise huge power without explicit mandates being in existence. All they require is reasonable deniability. It works much better than shorters or manipulators, What's in it for them at 16/17 mini movements.
NCM or their proxies can hold sufficient shares to sell hard each morning to depress sentiment then buy back in the afternoon. Rinse and repeat. It's not costless but it is cheap if you want to purchase Hav or GGP on the cheap.
I said at the time that the only viable justification for the terms of the deal was that GH and CB were not convinced of the geology so perhaps that is working out. Good job we kept Scally. On another subject why are NCM wasting drills on Red Chris when they could be put to better use you know where?