Member Info for rpoodle

Hmmm. Those number from Edison look a bit optimistic to me. I do understand though that they speak to the company when producing these reports but the annual report is clear as day—it actually explicitly says that the payables are all due over the next 12 months (see note 22)
https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2019-RKH-Report-20APRIL_SCREEN-FINAL.pdf

I don’t hold anymore here, FYI, but I’m still keeping an eye on Rockhopper. With that in mind, I was looking over the annual report and it’s bloody worrying.
In the press release announcing the annual report rockhopper mentioned that they owed some $10m in costs accrued in 2019 but would be paid out this year. Such costs show up as payables on the balance sheet. Receivables are the reverse—money owed to rockhopper, expected in 2020 or so and not yet received. But, looking at the annual report, the company has some $3.5m in receivables but almost $18m in payables. So arguably their true cash position is in fact more like $14m+ below what is being reported—so, given cash of some $21.9m, in reality free cash for admin, salaries etc is probably less than $8m. Jesus. If OM does not come in, then the end is definitely nigh....

Premier need this court case completed, as the extension of their debt maturity beyond the due date of 2021 depends on the execution of the acquisition deal (or at least completing one element of it). ARCM know this and are fighting dirty. The plus point for the near term is that no dilution is now imminent but the debt story is the bigger issue, in my opinion.

I’m pretty new here, but regarding funding, as I had read it, BPC has cash in hand and a financing line worth a combined total of some $45m, and well costs estimated at $25m. So aren’t they fully funded (albeit the credit line will require some further dilution)?

I bought in today. I confess that a large chunk of the uncrossing trade was mine. BPC are highly unusual that they are fully funded, have strong retail investor interest, and enormous potential in a previously drilled basin. Reminiscent of rockhopper exploration in the good old times....
Anyhow, of course there’s risk: coronavirus could continue to delay the drill, the Bahamas government may take a turn on oil drilling, but on the whole the hope is that Perseverance goes ahead in October and we all get a chance to derisk ahead of the well itself (if you want). And with well costs falling markedly, there’s some upside potential, and then there’s the well itself...

Hells bells. Premier has absolutely bled rockhopper dry. No wonder they had to panic sell the Egypt assets. The key figures are in the financial section: Rockhopper had $21.9m at April 1st, BUT they owe some $10m in Sea Lion-related costs built up in 2019. So in reality their cash position is $11.9m (excluding any value that those UOG shares have). Where is all this Falklands spending going??
Notwithstanding the case against Italy, without that deal with Navitas, Rockhopper would have been bust, all ends up, by the end or this year. Surely, surely, surely time to sack the management.

This will be viewed by the market as a duster. Very tough luck for everyone holding here (I have Premier but not 88e). I’d expected a better result to be honest.

Mixed bag, but probably a write-off. Premier are pulling out. Conserve cash!

Ouch. Gas condensate will have borderline commerciality. Premier have said they are withdrawing.

I was told today by Premier that the judge has up to 14 days to give her judgment

I didn’t get clarification on that, but I’m assuming—and I’m pretty sure about this—it’s $150m alone (so not including the $465m). So relatively reassuring, in my view.

Hi Jay.
They didn’t say much, but Premier indicated that they would “take stock” after the vote on March 17th as to the best way forward.

Regarding Premier and bankruptcy:

Premier has cash and undrawn facilities of $465m. If the oil price is $35/bbl for the remainder of the year, Premier expect a cash outflow of c. $150m. And they are pondering reining in some of their capital spending. Assuming this information (which came to me from Premier) is correct, Premier should be able to ride out the storm for a while.

Hope that helps.

Crazy times: I just managed to pick up 4,000 shares at 14p in the auction.
I heard from Premier’s shareholder relations people today and it was all very reassuring. I can provide more feedback if people want, but I’m not sure if others have also heard back from them too and posted on here. But, needless to say, they’re not about to go bust!

Might be a time to be greedy when others are fearful? Premier are in a mess about their ongoing N Sea acquisition, but as has already been pointed out it feels like the bad news is already priced in. Personally, I feel at times like this a lot depends on the skill of the management. IMO TD’s record during and after the last oil price collapse was first rate, and I’ve thus bought a few more at 27.5. Now watch the price tank.....

I listened to the PMO results presentation. It seemed clear to me that they were not referring to Zama; they were actually referring to the purchase of BP’s North Sea assets and the cash flows that would result. It was described as being meaningful for their credit rating, and as such they’d been asked to resubmit their application once the process is complete.
That’s on one hand encouraging; on the other not encouraging at all.
On the positive side, Premier are committed to the deal and there’s a court case later this month to finalize the deal (though there is a chance I guess the court will reject it, though I’m not the right person to speculate).
On the less positive side, Premier are raising the money for the acquisition via an equity raise. And their share price is absolutely plummeting at the moment. It’s not 100% clear to me that they’d be able to actually raise relief money (bar a major bit of luck, such as the Alaska well being a mega hit).
Anyhow, like I said, I don’t think Zama is the key; it’s the North Sea assets purchase.
Either way, though, it’s even more delay and we’re left waiting/praying for the Ombrina Mare court case....

Balls. I just checked my emails, the estimated figure was 6-8% (not 5-7%). Apologies to everyone. Rockhopper’s CFO gave me that figure, but it’s important to note that he was very clear that the range is merely an estimate at this stage.

Hi LTT. Some excellent posts but I just wanted to give you a heads up on something. Notably your comment:

“ AND we have gone from PMO offering a 15% interest rate to now having an interest free develop,ment to first oil.”

Rockhopper have been exceptionally disingenuous on this. The interest free portion only covers that part of the development not covered by the senior debt. Rockhopper will actually be paying interest on its share of the senior debt (which I’ve been told will have a rate of some 5-7%). The RNS only mentioned this implicitly, and the presentation was outright misleading.

You may have been aware of this already, though, so apologies if so.

Apologies; page 125

Chatham south was covered in the Gaffney, Cline and Associates CPR for Rockhopper:

“Rockhopper’s interpretation and mapping of the Chatham South Prospect (Figures 7.33, 7.34 and 7.35) have been reviewed by GCA and used as the basis for an independent estimation of prospective resources and GCoS. Rockhopper interprets this Prospect as the fan portion of the Chatham channel-fan system. Seismic amplitude mapping shows a fan shaped geometry with a considerably reduced percentage of high amplitudes compared to the channel portions. Rockhopper’s 14/5-4a well intersected 5 m of gross sand containing about 2 m of net pay, and reservoir improvement is believed to exist in the NW direction of the channels.”

See page 131
https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2012-CPR.pdf