Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Some interesting points, if I was Newmont I would want to get offers that would ensure that both investment were sold regardless as to whether GGP right of last refusal was actioned.
To achieve this the options would be(I think something like)
Telfer on own (maybe with an option for the owners of Havieron to still process ore as per the JVA)
Havieron on own (so the value can be decided)
A combined price, which I would think would be more than the sum of the parts.
But as many people have pointed out why would anyone go through the expensive process of making offers if you think that GGP's BOD's are going to win Havieron on its own.
I would think that a separate owner of Telfer cannot guarantee the the owner of Havieron will send their ore to Telfer, they may at any time decide to build and process the ore at Havieron.
I have read a lot and I am convinced that Newmont have no option but to accept GGP's price, providing it is sensible, against the only other option is to hold on to the properties, which I cannot see them doing.
This is only my opinion and information could arrive tomorrow that will change my thoughts.
Bamps: I think to buy at that price would be fantastic, I think some of the figures quoted as $US 1 bill to $us 1.5 bill are pie in the sky.
While you, I and most GGP'ers believe in Havieron, it is still a risky project and no guarantee of success, the value of the 70% has to recognise this, with the 70% goes 70% of the cost to develop the operational mine. (As Hydrogen has stated most of the expenditure is in the past)
I think our BOD's know more about mining in Western Australia and the financial markets worldwide than most listed companies worldwide, their real rewards only come by making GGP into a minimum of a mid-tier miner, but I an sure they share the stated ambition of Shaun to turn GGP into a multi-billion company.
I am personally convinced hat this is underway with Newmont's divestment, which our board will obtain on the best terms possible.
The process is this, pre-process, find someone to steer the company through the rough seas that were to come (2000)
Enter Shaun Day. and at that time the question was 'Who'
Stage 1, was make the company financially sound.
Stage 2, Construct a board of directors that are equal to any task that will confront them.
we are now at Stage 3, I am not sure how this stage will play out but if the Telfer deal does not come off I am convinced that GGP will grow to a sizable company.
I look forward to Stages 4,5,6 etc
This aligns with what Bamps stated yesterday on the 'Owning Telfer + Havieron, following on from yesterday' thread.
Nice to see this alignment, come on GGP, lets hope we can proceed this was to a mid-tier miner.
TP said they are busy with the 10, and other project get starved as the top 10 demand capex.
Hence
Their decision to sell, they know their internal capabilities , strengths and weaknesses.
Speedy: Good posts
by the time gold get to $5000 I think even with greater efficiency inflation will lift the AISC
ASA
the tolling charge is not 10% of AISC, but it should be included in the AISC, or is is not AISC
if not included it is the mill cost of processing plus 10%
Panama: good post
BTW: Freddie is in the green bin don't feed him.
Bamps: that all makes very good sense, as Newmont said better to pass on to miners that can give the assets there time and attention.
One thing I have not seen is that the that the report done as part of the Newcrest/Newmont take over was done about a year ago.
In the year I would suspect Telfer has lost value as more depleted.
Havieron may not having increased as similar risk still exist as the decline is at a stop and it is not complete i.e. at the top of the ore body.
On balance I think both are negative to the previous value, if the decline is complete then Telfer negative and Havieron positive, bring the value all other things being equal similar to the values in the report.
Deserttrader:
'To be fair GH ensuring that we have last right of refusal has certainly assisted our hand.'
You credit GH but, I think it was designed that when GGP needed to sell Newcrest could activate the clause. Luckily Shaun fixed the Black hole and GGP did not need to sell to survive.
Droverman: Great post
Correct is water cannot be solved then Havieron is worth ZERO for Newmont, and Telfer is very negative even with its limited gold production.
They will solve it is just a matter of tunnelling that is all the decline is a tunnel and tunnellers and underground miners do this process all of the time.
From what I have read a very positive meeting, looking forward to seeing videos today.
I want to set up midlands meets, you can see I started some time ago on
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=241
but events have prevented me organising to date, as you will see my mail for these is (will be) ggpmidsmeets@gmail.com
Bandit,
Shaun may have been surprised but not when WE found out that Telfer was for sale. All the property's that they are going to divest have been on the market since the statement about their intention to concentrate on Tier 1 assets, in the middle of last.
That is why only 2 days after the announcement one property was sold to the JV partner (I think).
IMO, All properties have interested parties in negotiation for months and the results will soon be revealed, surprised if no RNS before Town Hall meeting, but we may not be the preferred bidder, and we may now be trying to get 'the eye watering amount' for our 30%.
Time will tell and my crystal ball is very cloudy today.
Sunday Roast, confirms SD Shaun Day was in London on Friday, as they said that is when they were putting together the Podcast, Confirms the fiction, but his smile on the trailer may indicate fiction can come true
He stayed trying to pick up bit of the conversation and they were say in that tomorrow they would worth on the xxx and it need to be in London for 6 am, then some thing about news at 7 and regulations, then they all left together the other women was referred to as Liz and he did not known which but one man was Jimmy, having had the food they left and my mate left as well.
(This story is fiction and any resemblance to reality is purely incidental, in the boxes we now realise were the dots for the i's and crosses for the t's)
On Thursday I spoke to my mate he lives at the end of the metro to the North of Perth.
I asked him to got to Hungry Jacks and stake out and report on the movements at no' 500 and 502 across the road.
The problem is he went to the wrong Hungry Jacks and he reported that they was no no 500 etc across the road. The problem is he just does not listen, so unbeknown to me he decided Saturday to stake out from the correct Hungry Jacks.
And I now surprised have a report back, the lights we on on level 5 of 500 and level 3 of 502 when he got there, not much activity are most of the day. Early afternoon there were deliveries to both building by the same company delivered to both and parked on HJ's car park.
He could not understand what was delivered but the boxes were not very big and he could see circles on one and lines on the other.
About lunch time a group from one of the offices cam over and collected a takeaway, he over heard the gofer, chatting to his mate that he hopes the deal is done as he has a date tomorrow, and then he was telling his mate about the girl, he said something it seemed in relation to the girl about WA being a great land, and my mate took this as about girls in general.
About5 the lights at no 500 went out, 502 still seemed to be working not long after words about 5 very senior looking men , 2 other men and 2 women came out of no 502. The picked a table three tables away from my man, they all sat down and the two younger men took the details and then when and order the meal, the man that seemed to lead who he though was named Barny, passed over a card to pay for the order, my mate said he looked like he could handle himself.
While awaiting the food coming it was clear they had had a busy few days, it was also clear from the chat that something had been going back and forward to try and succeed in doing some deal or other, and they though they had it over the line. One of the women they called 'Why' he heard her clear say some thing like 'I've gone over it with a fine tooth comb' and a man they called 'SD' was saying how hard every body had worked they would have to return on Sunday to just finish it off and then it sounded like it would be 'NEW'. They seemed to be saying someone had a lot of xxx, he things they said gold, he could not understand, but at the distance and with the general noise he could not be sure . He did notice that they all seemed very well off even though they were in casual clothes the cut of them set them apart from the normal for Hungry Jacks, and some had watches that stood out as valuable.
TBC