Member Info for rossannan

Has anyone worked out whether there is an arbitrage opportunity at LOAC’s (and DDDD’s) current SP (taking all risks as read)?

ADT1

“this is going to have a massive 2021”

Because of the gold price or for company specific reasons?

Interesting, but equivalent to c.30p surely rather than 35p.

TRP-BPC

No, I mean the cash BPC has left to develop these assets after paying Stena etc. Should be a reasonable amount, particularly if they take the next tranche of death spiral funding.

TRP-BPC

“If P-1 is a duster would be good entry for CERP assets”

That depends very much on the share price and BPC’s cash balances.

Hopingmore

Not sure this one is worth trading - looks more like a hold to me. Has to be a good chance of it revisiting this year’s highs in Q1 2021.

ShareScare

“Ain't going no where until the hedge fund is done dumping.
10-15 trading days provided they do not get another $10 million worth in a few days. If they do you can write January off.”

Spot on. This is exactly what I have been trying to point out to Petrodollar.

Petrodollar

You have somewhat changed your tune since yesterday when you were talking about a “hard move upwards from market open tomorrow”. You continue to ignore the significance of the limiter that your own BoD put in place (see the 16/12 RNS) to kill any move such as the one you were expecting today. And if BPC end up tapping that source again, the chances of any substantial rise ahead of the drill result will further recede, making a binary gamble on the drill result the only game in town. Good luck with that.

https://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/azeez-mustapha/57984/bahamas-petroleum-company-price-bpc-remains-weak-and-will-grow-weaker

Is a possible limiter on the rise not the length of time it will take to bank all the proceeds and doubts over how well the money will be spent?

“dividend rate continuation”

That would be enough for me.

Arbitrage opportunity?

Yes, fingers crossed that it all starts coming together in Q1 2021.

countdemonet

Is it a wonder that companies like LGO/CERP and BPC attract sceptical commentary? How much is £1000 invested in LGO 10 years ago worth today? How much is £1000 invested in BPC 10 years ago worth today? It appears that money has only made by their BoDs and those who have successfully traded the ups and downs of their respective “stories”. Looking back at the CERP/BPC merger from today’s perspective, it begins to look very much like birds of a feather flocking together.

hecta09

Thank you for that - it seems that BPC have realised that their original news release was not their finest hour.

V8ntage

Where do you get your figure of 10% from? There are some pretty comprehensive studies out there that I have looked at which discuss what a given percentage chance of geological success typically translates into in terms of commercial success. As I recall, the typical commercial success percentage is significantly lower but not as low as one-third of the geological success percentage.

Pro

“Unfortunately BPC has already made false public statements about this matter indicating that the issue has been decided and the application is refused.”

No-one on either side of the argument seems inclined to present the information objectively. It is a bit of a stretch for BPC’s opponents to say that BPC have made “false public statements”. As I pointed out in my post yesterday:

“You don’t have to be a lawyer to spot the way in which the most recent BPC news release refers to ‘leave in relation to an application for an extension of time’ and is silent on the elements of the environmentalists’ case that are not time barred.”

It is more accurate to say that BPC have been selective in the way that they have presented the information. You can certainly argue that that was potentially misleading (and there seem to be many on here eager to be mislead over what has actually been decided at this stage).

Basically the one-two of the litigation and the unexpected death spiral funding has knocked the stuffing out of the pre-drill excitement trade, which is a shame.

bhargav

Although the how long will OMI be part of the picture question is a valid one - for every OMI holder holding tightly there are probably ten who would take the money and run if made an attractive enough offer. Even me.

PageofCups

“By virtue the later claims are related to the timed out claims, the later claims are null and void”

How does that work?

bhargav

“should pick up and mature in its own time”

Wise words.