Member Info for rossannan

(My email to her read:
“Hi Tara
Can you confirm that the up to 35% chance of success for Perseverance 1 that BPC has been quoting is the chance of geological success (as opposed to the chance of commercial success)?
All the best
Ross”)

Noviceinv

Reply to my email:

“Dear Mr Annan,

I have confirmed with our Geologist - CPR volumes are technical chance of success (CoS) or (Pg) for the occurrence of any movable hydrocarbons irrespective of commerciality metrics.

I hope this answers your question.

Kind regards,




Tara Ramsey?
Executive Assistant”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Turns-Bullish-On-Oil-Sees-65-Brent-In-2021.html

https://caribreport.com/2020/12/17/bahamas-no-support-for-oil-drilling-in-bahamian-waters-says-two-cabinet-ministers/

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trafigura-Sees-Oil-At-60-Thanks-To-Vaccines.html

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/17/calls-minnis-cancel-oil-exploration-licences/

123Gold

“taking candy from shareholders”

and giving it to 1798 Volantis Fund Ltd...

offerman

“This share as many others has been manipulated.”

No, in classic AIM fashion everything has turned out to be less than straightforward, particularly the funding and arguably the BoD.

Noviceinv

Email sent.

CarsCoffee

As far as you are aware, but in the 2011 CPR it appears to be geological and the 2017 Technical Audit did not appear to change that. Is it possible that retail investors have been busy convincing themselves that the commercial CoS is 35% when it is in fact significantly less?

CoMan - do you have any thoughts about this?

Noviceinv

Noviceinv

Is 35% a commercial or geological CoS? The answer really matters.

Noviceinv

If you look at the CoS percentages quoted by BPC in e.g. presentations, they are ranges. I am taking the maximum CoS percentage quoted, for simplicity. So is it a commercial or geological CoS?

Is this the maximum chance of commercial success (finding oil worth extracting) or is this just the maximum chance of geological success (finding oil)? If it is just the maximum chance of geological success, how much lower is the maximum chance of commercial success?

ShareScare

You have to wonder whether these new arrangements offer determined shorters a moneymaking opportunity. Risky though.

Zurichsee

“The term 'cannot be unreasonably withheld' relates to the condition that BPC have met their licence obligations”

If what you are saying was correct, you would not need the word “unreasonably” in there.

That certainly sounds like dynamic positioning.

And if an anti-drilling Government decides that it can be “reasonably withheld”?

armatrading

“Besides which, the Company has a 30-year production licence.”

No, it doesn’t.

CarsCoffee

It is a strange one. Either they are getting less and less ambitious over time or having to be more realistic with investors about what they can achieve. The politics is not helping. The opposition have a different view but are also more connected to BPC (https://thenassauguardian.com/heres-how-a-davis-administration-would-handle-the-oil-drilling-issue/). I was never interested in this as a drill results play but the pre-drill excitement trade was enticing for a while. This new finance arrangement has taken any remaining shine off that one though.

ShareScare

“unreasonably withheld”

I am not talking about spudding P1, I’m talking about what happens afterwards (assuming that BPC beats the odds). The two words I have quoted above suggest that nothing is done and dusted.