Member Info for romaron

Is for shareholders, NOT analysts. In fact if you think about it with their [analysts] prognostications they are unlikely to be holders anyway (like some of the regular posters on here) and wouldn't be allowed entry. There are only really two times a year that the analysts get to grill the Company (March & September). For governance reasons there will be an RNS first thing and this means that those attending the AGM can ask around what is in the RNS but anything that hints of advance information will not be answered in full. This isn't the company avoiding the question but they have to be transparent when fielding information that can affect the share price. The AGM isn't and to some extent a private meeting.
It does mean that in some ways an AGM is a waste of time but also means that you may ask a question that causes avoidance or a lot of huffing and puffing. Most here are aware of obfuscation and it is far more apparent in person. At an AGM a few years ago I questioned the high declines in reserves (high teens)and was told that they were 'normal'. I later did more digging and this was true for end of life fields but it also hid the other reason that because the company was living hand to mouth they couldn't afford to work on these wells and mitigate the declines. I wasn't lied to but my inexperience didn't give me a follow up question. This year there will be the regular request for dividends and there will be a respectful answer saying basically, NO. This is a growth company and that is the right answer imo. Do not expect enlightenment from the AGM. The earlier RNS is the important event for us shareholders. The AGM is a chance to meet the Directors and other shareholders and there is nothing wrong in that. This is a well run company and I listened to the March audio again. I think there was openness and good explanations for all matters raised and would recommend listening to it again.

*The latest Director BUY was for me very significant. AB is a serious & religious guy. The Charity is important to him.

Hi E121 - definitely the CNE RNS had an influence and with us being the operator of Kraken I'd imagine they left it to EnQuest to provide the detail. I think this tweet from the Donald also had a bearing "If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!"

1:25 PM - 19 May 2019

I think it's an empty threat because I cannot see the Iranians surrendering immediately and the effect on the world economy and the law of unexpected consequences are unknown but highly dangerous.

I'm under no illusion about Iran gkb47 and it's difficult to know where to start. As for recent assassinations in foreign countries well, how about Russia, Israel, North Korea and Rwanda and that's without trying. One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. It isn't one sided here and the US bears a lot of the responsibility for interference in other countries. For instance, I have a personal interest in the invasion of Grenada where a friend was involved. The US were doing a knee-jerk reaction to a bombing in Lebanon and basically did a Trump to get good news headlines whatever the damage. Operation 'Urgent Fury' resulted in around 80 deaths (20 US) and after a successful invasion the US awarded their troops 8,337 medals. In fact the medals outnumbered the troops used.

When the IRA was bombing the UK I cannot remember us invading the suppliers of Semtex and other weaponry although stiff letters may have been sent. I'm not a fan of Iran but certainly not a supporter of the largest military the world has ever known bullying other sovereign countries into submission to protect their own interests.

.......and this https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/warns-carriers-flying-arabian-gulf-misidentification-190518065807097.html

The hypocrisy and cynicism is unbounded here. The IRGC have only done what countless other countries have done and continue to do by supplying weapons and "advisors". Yemeni civilians are dying from British and US weaponry in the region too. I'm against an escalation but with religion involved there is little to stop a potential martyr with the promise of 72 virgins in paradise making his/her mark. Yes, Iran loses in a conventional war. That's why they'll be sneaky and effective in their actions.

*Love the name of the IRGC representative 'mohammad Jokar'.

No, not Jonathan the other one John, the Deputy First Minister of Scotland. He was on Question Time last night and a question from the floor was about the Oil & Gas industry in Scotland and the conflict with the aim of zero emissions by 2045. His reply was measured and full of jargon "need an economic development plan" a "planned transition" etc. but in no way indicated that they were anti the O&G industry. They might be anti nuclear up there but they are pro O&G.

The O&G will be in good hands imo if the Jocks ever get independence and TBH I would rather they controlled it already. I think its importance would be appreciated and nurtured better by them. We are already the leaders in reductions of greenhouse gasses in the G20 and have nothing to be ashamed of. At the same time we shouldn't give economic advantage away to competitors by being the only rule follower (India, China don't).

*the question is about 50 minutes in if you watch BBC catchup.

Hi Pelle - I'm not sure I agree. The sales you mention must logically have once been purchases but you don't get the date of the sales. Are they single trades or cumulative because the majority have 100% as change from prior portfolio?
The Baillie Gifford Life Ltd (100%) seems to be a different entity to the larger holding in UK of c.90m shares. For all we know these sales might go back to 2018 and beyond. I still suspect they are RI related.
I don't trust MorningStar or the FT for that matter in reporting holdings and would direct you to the regular ENQ page on MS where they have double counted major shareholders and have AB with 9.43 and Double A with 8.71 making his control over 18%. That is wrong.
I really do appreciate your research and stress testing of EnQuest so please don't think I'm being deliberately argumentative. I'm giving my opinion but am no expert in stocks and shares. One thing I do know though is that too many people follow what they see as clues when what we really want to know is what the 'smart money' is doing. Problem there is that they don't usually tell you in advance. Hence my minority feeling that the current front end oil glut is because there is a higher than normal chance of a shortage around the corner. It is impossible to get the timing right and pointless trying to buy when the first attack is launched. I would rather no conflict in the ME as it would adversely affect the rest of my portfolio. We live in interesting times.

I'll comment in another post about your second part re: the next 3-5 years,

Be Lucky

Hi Pelle - You misread me. I'm not very interested in share trades other than volumes really and large holdings/sales. I was interested in your first post because it looks at first glance that there is a market in the US. There is but it's very thin and really can only operate when London is open. It really is too much info. You'll never know what is behind all trades and the directors are usually no wiser if you ask them. They actually rely on the companies telling them of their holdings and you can tell from their faces that diligence by the companies is weak. There may not even be any sanctions for not following rules to the letter. Good governance and all that. Even the recording of deals is subjective when giving the annotation BUY or SELL to them.
If you're looking for transparency you're investing in the wrong product but occasionally we spot trends and gain advantage from the minutiae of trades.
The basic problem is that even an obvious trade can be a smoke screen and you have no idea what is behind it. A largish sale commented here this week of (I think) 650,000 shares could be anything. was it a probate sale? Was it selling EnQ, buying PMO? Was it profit taking even? The list is endless and explains why there are so many sellers of shares. In FX it is simple - you are either long or short. In stocks most people don't even consider shorting when common sense tells you it makes sense to do it. The Investment banks and hedge funds have no such reluctance or principles in shorting a company's stock. In some ways (if you think about it) we have very few windows to evaluate a stock. There are usually only 2 analyst meetings a year with EnQuest and few if any will attend the AGM. In the US they have quarterly updates but whichever way you look at it we are in the dark most of the time.
I don't really have a problem with this which is why it is so important to look at and investigate the calibre of the board and executives. Companies aren't run by shareholder referendum on a day to day basis.

Pelle 15.57 - Interesting bunch of figures. I didn't realise we were quoted in the US and I'm still not sure we are. The minute I saw that OTC also covered the pink market it made a little more sense. These are not usually very liquid markets so be careful of reading too much into them. The biggest there is Seagall Bryant and from their webpage I didn't see a London office. Maybe they just use the OTC as a wash account and the trades are actually done in London. I mean that when London is closed the US market just wouldn't handle these amounts imo. For accounting and tax reasons they may prefer to trade through the OTC but again, imo, these are deals done in London and passed through the OTC. You wouldn't play with these amounts when London was closed.
Having said that the amounts would certainly affect the price. It could be a convoluted derivative or some such arbitrage. We've seen Majedie before but not Seagall and the others are International although the Baillie Gifford Limited trade suprised me. It does indicate that we have an interesting following. It could even be the way they had to record the deals after the RI. We know companies use the BVI (for example) when it suits and the companies here have various wealth funds they manage for a variety of clients. Unless you had previous screen shots these deals could be historical records and the Institutions could also include 2018. The Funds give a little more colour and have some 2018 dates whilst the 2 amounts of 15.3 with Seagall match the 30.6 in Institutions. I can only really see them playing with amounts of this size around the RI so with the limited knowledge we have I think it's fairly safe to ignore them.

Interesting find Dolo3 - a certain amount of posturing before a new contract is agreed. This'll definitely come up at or before the AGM. Blame the sub-editor for "Alarm Bells" in the title. I'm pretty sure EnQuest will have Scottish Government and OGA support here and Countries trump companies.

I'd be careful where you're going with this line of thought hitman. Last year (with lower production) we finished with EBITDA of $716m. Asda's pre tax profits for 2017 were £712m and they're being touted for sale for £5.5bn (they were valued at £7bn but the failed Sainsbury merger means they cannot take advantage of the economies of scale it would have generated). So by my fag packet calculations we're somewhere level on profit so we're worth something like £5.5bn less debt, say £3.2bn. That's £1.89 a share.

I realise that I'm comparing silk to cement but you'd be off your trolley to go anywhere else (1987), one trip and we'll be laughing (1989), as we pocket the difference (2005), whilst for now we're stuck with always low prices (2005).

The numbers will eventually speak volumes as permanently low prices, forever (2002) doesn't work in retail or any other bleedin' industry that makes a substantial profit.

Build it and they will come. There will be a topping out ceremony later this year!

.........and the Iranians have deep rooted feelings of injustice underpinned by religious fundamentalism. Remember Vietnam; an impoverished Asian country that saw off the French and the US. They had the jungle, Iran has the mountains. All countries have patriots but some are fiercer than others. As that famous philosopher Mike Tyson once said " "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

I also suspect Beerbull that it is presently in the US interest to keep oil from rising too high, too fast. With the SPR on tap and a king with executive privilege it could prove very tempting and may even be being drawn on now . I have been thinking for some time that the US has a lot of the "wrong" oil and as JB said the world doesn't run on C5's. Saudi Arabia would be compliant in abetting the US in the latest Iran adventure too. We just don't know and can only watch it play out. My sympathies lie with Iran as the US moves ever further to the right and only they (US) are not invaders, merely the strongest military the world has ever known protecting "allies" who "invited" them in and "US interests". I have a feeling that the present glut is engineered to an extent but the clever money doesn't want to be caught short of oil. Things can change very quickly once the first missile is fired.

Hi hitman - I cannot see AB gambling with charitable donations. He is a religious man and at the last AGM (according to K) he didn't even drink during it [AGM] because it was Ramadan. I think the purchase is significant for a variety of reasons.

A very good sign!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0002wsm/nae-pasaran

For those tired of dog whistle politics and populist politicians this is an antidote. A bit long but it goes at the pace of the original jocks involved. It makes me proud to be British but I'd be even prouder if I was Scottish. Anybody with a dry eye at the end needs to check their pulse.

Pelle - The words in your quote "Longer term" don't really say anything. Soder is right.

Regards Iran. The US always throws in 'threats to allies' and 'defence of democracy'. Admirable slogans but those allies are Israel, Saudi Arabis and Qatar among others. Bastions of democracy? The US attacks colonialism because that was what it was called in the 'old days'. Having armed forces in foreign lands to support despots and protect trade is what colonialism was all about. What the US does is different, apparently. I'm not usually a conspiracist but what are we to make of all this posturing and rearranging of battle fleets? I suspect the SPR is also being used and because it is 'strategic' and protected we aren't allowed details. In WW1 and WW2 battleships were often treated as chess pieces and positioned to cancel out potential enemy strategies. They didn't move. It is double edged because once they move they then become live. As long as the aircraft carrier remains a 'safe' distance away the US can control the news cycle. As usual drones will do the bulk of the attacks and the Saudis may well have moved their command centre to the Dorchester, Park Lane in anticipation.
I'm with Iran on this. They are prepared to shed blood. They expect terrible attrition but that won't stop them defending their land and attacking invaders. An old fashioned Scud landing on or near an oil tanker is all it would take to close the Strait of Hormuz.

*Noticed that AB wasn't in the Rich List today.

Hi Pelle - Failing to impress analysts is not surprising. They do not appraise on potential and neither do the rating agencies. I think they're wrong which is why I continue to hold EnQuest. In fact that is one of the benefits/flaw in holding for potential with its higher risk. You may have to wait a very long time without any guarantees obviously.
As for a 5 year plan I think they may have a kinda blueprint but they have to be ready to move on other mature fields that become available. We are in a good position here as our tax credits can give us the edge by being able to be top bidder. Sometimes these losses can be advantages as we can afford to pay a tad more than someone without them.

Good post gkb47, you're not just a pretty face. I'd forgotten about the Seapulse deal and it may turn out a winner. The FPSO remains a problem and it may be the heat exchanger.? I know from boilers that the 2 most expensive items are the heat exchanger and the pcb. One is easy to remedy whilst the other often means a new boiler. Not flushing a boiler before using can ruin the heat exchanger and nullify the warranty. we seem to be in a pretty strong position here but obviously if Bumi went under or some other voluntary arrangement that could reflect on our sp. Perhaps next Friday's update by Cairn might give some colour?

A couple of points:
P.1 “A production and development led E&P business” which expands on the main site which says “EnQuest is a production and development company”. I’m possibly gonna be shot down but I think the last ‘E’ we did was Eagle and I’m glad they’re putting it on their literature, possibly for the first time? I think there is currently no ‘E’ planned but plenty of ‘A’. By that I mean ‘Appraisal’ and it is an important distinction. New findings from exploration is 1:20 whilst it is closer to 1:6 for appraisal wells. Speculative wells for EnQuest kinda fall between E and A imo as they tend to be on existing acreage and are near to existing wells. This goes back to the oil industry adage that “the best place to find oil is in an oil field”. If you want explosive multi baggers then you need to invest in exploration companies but the odds mean that you risk losing your investment too; that’s why they’re cheap. These type of companies always hype the STOIIP before they’ve even got a FDP for a find (Xcite).
We are very different to them. The economics and existing infrastructure is different when you’re already there and have teams that have worked with each other for years. We have the cash now to do further appraisal and I expect reserve upgrades.
P.3 Although they know March/April production they didn’t list it in the report so no need for an RNS. On the one hand I’d like to see it but they haven’t in other years and it could set a precedent. There are also other partners to consider and it’s only a few weeks until we have them anyway. It could also help explain no buying as analysts like the ‘show me the money’ approach and we have disappointed before.
The timing of the report with the US/China trade dispute also discourages investment at this time so I’m not surprised that it underwhelmed the market. Personally I found the report encouraging.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1126248270513299456

hitman is just out of shot. I imagine the production crew were a bit worried about the stress on Hoddle's ticker.

The trade dispute harms all our portfolios but it’s more the Iran situation that alarms me. The triumvirate of Pompeo, Bolton and Netanhayu are being even more bellicose than usual. This is an administration without scruples and individual ambition and interests seem to trump (sorry) common sense. Few seem prepared to call their bluff and allies stand idly by. Iran isn’t in that group.
Iran had an empire when we were waving spears and painting ourselves with woad. It is a fortress, surrounded on three sides by mountains and a marsh on the Southern border. It is bigger than France, Germany and the UK combined. Its neighbour Afghanistan has seen off three more recent empires (Britain, Russia, US) and Iran is much bigger and its fighting prowess has been seen in Syria. If it kicked off the US would do its usual remote warfare ably supported by Saudi Arabia and allies. That has limitations. I take you back to the US military’s catchphrase in the Second Gulf War, “We do deserts, not mountains” and turning right was never an option.
I’m wondering whether they are waiting until the carrier group is in place before ‘fabricating’ a situation. Israel has a major problem with attacking Iran in that they have to fly over other sovereign states. Good luck with flying over Iraq in secrecy. I’m wondering whether the US would take an unprecedented step and allow Israeli bombers to use their carrier?
Iran has plenty of assets and just the threat against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will make insurance impossible whilst laying mines is simple but effective. Much of Iraq oil comes from the South which is a mainly Shia area and I wonder where their loyalties lie? I don’t underestimate Iran one iota. It seems others do. As always these things tend to escalate out of control so let us hope that reason wins.
I hope it’s all posturing and part of the TV reality show that is US politics these days.

Weny -this also has an impact imo "The best indicators of underlying oil-market conditions are so-called timespreads, which reflect the premiums traders are willing to pay to get crude sooner."

What happens in FX when a currency comes under pressure is that people make sure they have cover for the currency being shorted and somewhere to place the long funds (like Swiss). Picking the exact date of a revaluation/devaluation is impossible but as pressure builds you expect a break or a capitulation from the Central bank at any time. The swings and rates in these times are massive and short dates can easily go past a 1000 percent (sterling did this on many occasions - not only spot pressure). This won't be reported in the press but is appreciated by those in the market and speculators are well aware of the impact. However, before the action really starts you'll often get a phoney war where the sun is shining and birdsong is all around. I'm no expert here and heardy may well have a point (14.51) but temporary oversupply can be for an anticipated storm/blitzkrieg which may or may not happen. Timing is everything but if you fancied oil going higher you'd want to be long, wouldn't you?