Member Info for romaron

“It has never been hard to tell the difference between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.” ? P.G. Wodehouse
That isn't totally accurate. You could easily say Scousers are whingers. They are but it is a unique sense of black humour and the people and the City are warm and welcoming. You could say the same about the Scots. Both can be 'chippy' but it is often retaliation and is invariably intelligent and witty. I posted on here recently that Sturgeon back-tracked on how quickly they would go to zero carbon when pushed. The North Sea is a valuable asset and would be intelligently managed if Scotland was ever independent.
Two anecdotes about Scots. I played football against Royal bank of Scotland (RBS) in London banks league and teams were actually nervous against playing them. They were all Jocks and treated every game as a battle. I got to know many of them and one is still a friend. They are great company and always first to the bar. Dirty b*stards though.
My first wife had a grandfather who was decorated in WW1. He was a blacksmith from Co. Durham and was describing the last days of the war. The Germans were a beaten force and surrendering in the thousands. Some still held on and as an encouragement officers were offering a digestive biscuit for every live German captured. It wasn't said as a joke but in that unique quiet Geordie accent he said, "The Jocks never got any biscuits". Even in WW1 they were considered an ally as much as a part of the army.
In my mind Scotland has a long history and if they wanted Independence then it is none of our business. The ties are so great that little would change in the relationship. It also wouldn't be a financial disaster for them. They're too clever for that.

*Not a total rout of Labour. If Merseyside had turned blue it would have been.

Another aspect that makes EnQuest different and possibly more unattractive is the shareholdings. I quickly added up the reported major holdings of:
TLW 37%
ENQ 35.44
PMO 32.42%
Source https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=PMO:LSE
I don't trust these figures but you have to start somewhere.
You have to add to ENQ Jefferies which is AB and DoubleA basically 8.64% and the Employess Benefit Trust 4.35%
On a good day you are close to 15 percent held by an influential insider group. That will put off some Institutions no doubt. It also reduces the free float to an extent.
When I've met other shareholders I am often surprised by their holdings. 7 figures not being unusual. If you call the major holders as one shareholder there are probably quite a few more just under 3% but using 50% as a rough guide it means the other 50% are held by retail investors. So you could have c.850 mio held by just 85 shareholders. I realise I've put in a high holding but with the OO and the RI most LTHs have ended up with more shares than they intended but it does bear some consideration. I think our share issue of 1.7mio shares is misleading as it makes us look like a battered AIM stock and that isn't true. Most of us here aren't day traders so it isn't surprising that we move less than our "peers". I was thinking would I sell some EnQuest at 25p? I don't know is the answer. If you need the money then it is a simple decision. If you can afford to wait - umm.

Couple of encouraging headlines in today's Times:
"Tory win to trigger wave of overseas cash into UK" and "Global investors can see UK shares are cheap and now it's safe to buy"
Friday was a bit early but next week could be interesting.

Sorry about this (I am confused) but in simple terms I think when death spiral financiers get involved one of the first things they do is transfer value away from the equity into the bonds or senior debt that they hold or set up a mechanism to feed into it. The clever money has usually left the building some time ago. We survived but the remnants of those trades are still there imo and the mechanism still working. We currently have no shorts over half percent and stock on loan of 2.99 percent as at end November. I don't think the share price represents our true value and once Institutions look behind the bond discount and our poor rating they'll change their mind. The management are too busy to worry about something they cannot control and we retail investors probably spend too much time staring at the price.

This is my view and very subjective plus stuff I googled. The Vulture funds would have arrived end 2015 beginning 2016; before the OO Oct/Nov16.
Around this time I think it fair to say we were distressed and closer to filing for bankruptcy than many holders like to admit.
"The philosophy behind distressed investments is therefore simple: There is generally an expectation that the targeted company can and will be restructured successfully or brought back to life through a merger, takeover or some form of managerial re-engineering and rejuvenation. Alternatively, if it comes to bankruptcy, the asset values must substantially exceed the market valuation."
I think another thing to remember (always) are the terms Hierarchy, Seniority and Ranking when it comes to debt. They always trump equity. P.293 of the Prospectus states that Dividend only come after other certain tests are passed . I wonder if the HYN's control the Retail Bond (RB)? The FSA/RCF has to be paid before any new Bond issue.
My amateur theory is that in the case of a default the equity holder gets sod all. Not even scrap value. The equity almost becomes a cushion for the vulture fund (VF) as the equity holders are frozen out if the worst happens. "Equity cushion protecting HY Bonds is typically smaller than that for investment grade bonds. HY Bonds are thus more sensitive to fluctuations in the value of the issuing firms assets."
It's still nebulous but I think the VF hedge a certain amount of equity when they buy into the bonds. This shorting of stock means that they are feeding into the equity cushion and it protects their position until equity hits zero. The stock is unlikely to climb too quickly with the sickly performance of the bonds and with skilful manipulation they can probably play the stock and keep control. We see it all the time in AIM stocks on life support.

The inability of the stock price to move suggests there is a blockage somewhere. I have a few ideas and to make it interesting and encourage contributions I thought an International challenge might stimulate whilst we wait for Dyno-Rod. The challenge goes out to the Swedes and the Scottish holders (there are always Jocks in oil). I'm probably doing them both a favour actually as at this time of the year it is almost pitch black with little to do up North. The Swedes have, since they stopped raping and pillaging and traded their long boats for a Volvo, gained a reputation for financial awareness as have the Scots (they didn’t need boats). I finally found this:
Enquest 7% 15/04/2021 ISIN Code XS1517932585 Market Euro MTF CurrencyUSD Type Debt Instrument Status Tradable 86,774 i % 13/12/2019 15:28:22
I mention this only because the Retail Bond and the USD HY are for arguments sake about the same price. They obviously have a similar rating (another assumption). As you will have guessed I think the problem is the debt but there is more to it than that. If you think about it our EV is largely our debt and has a disproportionate weighting yet we talk mainly about the equity. I think it also goes back to the Open Offer in 2016. I know a little about bonds but am far from being expert but through our links and contacts we may be able to fill in some gaps. I know there is a Swedish guy whose name escapes me and he has occasionally posted on here who does understand how they operate. I’m thinking more along the lines that as our bonds became “junk” and HY is only another name for junk that we attracted some vulture funds and they hedged the equity. I end up getting prospectus fatigue and lose the will to live so hope that some of you will challenge or correct my mistakes/statements. Something that I only discovered today is that when the original 2014 $650mio 7% senior notes were issued is that they were (purposely?) not registered under the U.S. Securities Act and are linked to obligations under the secured RCF. This may be irrelevant.

A good read E121. I remember our low point with no money available and every penny going towards Kraken, AB told me that decline rates were c. 20 %. What he omitted was that without TLC (maintenance) this is what happens with old EUR wells.
I'm guessing here but I doubt there is much maintenance on shale wells. Like the Who sung "they die before they get old". The economics of shale appear to be skewed capex instead of maintenance where you have to keep drilling for economic success. The business plan is shot if money isn't available or OPEC turns the taps on. Remember that saying. "What goes round,comes round". Shale is increasingly being managed by majors who also have an interest in maximizing EUR wells so their interest is our interest. Am I making sense?

Steve, we've kicked it, submerged it and dropped it from a great height and still the price hardly moves. Pelle placed it in a can with rotten herrings for a couple of months in desperation and it came out smelling of roses but the price never moved. We've been discussing a nuclear option.

*I bought more today

Pelle wrote - "Each month they reduce debt with 50 mill the risk goes down exponentially"
Maybe exponentially is a bit strong but I get the gist.
I prefer Einstein's view "“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”
An example similar to this is often used to back up Einstein. "If I were to offer you the choice between an immediate cash payment of one million dollars or a magic penny that doubled every day for 30 days, which one would you take?

Now if you are like most people, at first you might jump on the million dollar deal. But if you break out your calculator and double one penny for 30 days you will be amazed that on day 30 your penny would be worth over $5,000,000."

We cannot double every day but the building bricks are there and they do stack up. As long as there are no disasters in the future (threats and risks are always there) I basically agree with Pelle (dunno if it is as much as $50 mio per month). Is the market waiting for ZERO risk before they get their willy wet?

There is some wild speculation about EnQuest by the more febrile here but in all honesty I don't see the problem. People talk as if we're a major oil company. We're not even in the FTSE 350! If you are on the broker's lists and a decent size you can get automatically bought by tracker funds when the market rises. If we were a football team we'd be in League 2 after arresting a fall into the Vanarama. The Premiership is for the majors but I believe we should be Championship material. Like teams outside the top tier we have a much smaller, loyal fan base which doesn't attract the armchair supporters. Like a football season things don't happen overnight. We are on the right track and it really is only a matter of time. I don't think we're flawed, just overlooked. Our current market cap is actually an encumbrance for some. If the Institution has a certain criteria for investment that we don't fill then they won't buy. They're wrong of course but there's safety in numbers (or so they think).

Be Lucky

Sideline money will move now. Uncertainty removed. They'll be pressing the BUY buttons now.

What could cause a delay is no clear winner tonight in the election. If there is a clear decision then an investment dam will be broken and we could have a nice finish to the year. If it's more of the same then I'm afraid AB will have to bus the analysts to the bank and show them our cash pile. That could take a few months.

*as a hedge maybe AB should consider donating to the SNP.

No, but they were looking for him. Never had him as a party animal. Pooper maybe.

Frayed not. I related it. I was at the Tull Low Oil 60p pastie earlier. Not much fun.

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Hi TWalbyoff - I had a quick glance and maybe they can't re-rate too quickly without losing face. Stockomendation which is pretty rubbishy and they tempt you with 'Premium' content so I can only go on Freeview. It has Canaccord with a HOLD on TLW but no TP. The better comparison might be the previous one of 14 Nov which was Speculative BUY and TP 220.00 (the sp was c. 147). ENQ with Canaccord on 15 Oct was HOLD with a TP of 15.00 (sp was 18.40). I'm sticking with the blindfold and a pin.

But it's not only about Brexit. I don't think it's the end of democracy but it's certainly under attack. Bots on social media are attacking and posting disinformation that is viewed by millions; the latest saying the boy on the hospital floor was staged. Trump has something with fake news but spoils it by inventing an alternative truth and projecting. It's only fake news when it doesn't support his agenda.
Made me think that if trolls can get away with it in an election what games could be played in the financial sector? It wouldn't be on a message board as anonymous posters cannot build a following but imagine a CEO's twitter account being hacked?

Earlier I read TLW posts. I went in without my Filter protection and there was Neil Hannon spreading his poison. This guy is a coward and an individual that thrives on parasitical behaviour under the cover of anonymity . I don't know what he gets from anonymous postings but some readers may assume he has some insight. He doesn't, no more than me or any of you reading this because the future is unknown. His motives just smack of spitefulness. I cannot help if he had a poor childhood or an unhappy marriage but he shouldn't take it out on genuine investors. In fact if you consider it the holders of TLW chose the company for FTSE 25 and Dividend reasons and are more risk averse than many here. What pleasure can you gain in rubbing a decent person's nose in his investment choice? I would advise others to follow me in Filtering him and people who regularly respond to him.
I have posters here who can vouch for me and I am not totally anonymous. Can anybody vouch for NH, itsa, or no show KO ?

I am underwater in ENQ as are many here so gloating would make me a total hypocrite. The fact is we want TLW to do well as there aren't that many companies we can be compared to but some do. It is an imperfect comparison but no two companies match exactly in oilies. In fact I hope the analysts and Institutions are running their slide rules over NS oilies stimulated by recent events. I wish Tullow holders good luck.

*Finally, stop the violence in our polling, we're not Hong Kong. The video of the Labour activist punching a Tory Aide outside a Leeds Hospital was far too graphic for me to give a link. The senior Tories who alerted the BBC and ITV should be applauded for their quick action. It was an overreaction to a young lad camping out on the floor of a hospital. Position is all important when you have pneumonia and kids love camping out. A win/win for the Tories!

Just read this https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/121019-storage-tankers-off-singapore-decline-on-strong-lsfo-demand-ahead-of-imo-2020-sources?ite=93859&ito=1222&itq=de9b0339-dac2-4ce9-8624-fd2364d74d11&itx%5bidio%5d=2115552415
What I did take from it is that it is easier to "fill up" from landed terminals. Maybe we could open one up at SVT. Whilst filling up they could browse the store and buy a paper/magazine as well as cigarettes, sweeties and alcohol. The site is ideally sited for passing trade.

....and there you have it Gprasad. Long term. I posted this on 14 Nov "I did calculate the EV/Ebitda of PMO, TLW & ENQ and arrived at 2.27, 3.96 and 1.86. We aren't a million miles away from PMO but there's quite a gap with TLW. Maybe we are arguing this wrong. All have high debt though I fancy we might win that race but what if we are correctly valued and it's TLW that is overpriced? Buy EnQuest sell Tullow makes sense to me."
So the movement for now is Tullow failing to defy gravity whilst we consolidate and look for dashing Institutions to ask us for a dance. It only really takes one to have the others tripping over themselves. Come February our dance card will be full. I'd get in early if I was you.

Build it and they will come.