Member Info for romaron

Has to be expected monkey - too hot to glue yourself to the road so they turn up here. Has he got a bible in his hand?

Hi Lytham - In 1990 people were posting their keys through the letterboxes of estate agents and mortgage lenders. House prices used to go down as well as up in the last century. Increased immigration and population growth had its part to play. Basically 3 bedrooms in central London now makes you a millionaire. The change creeps up on you and the narrative at the time was all doom and gloom. A bit like oil between 2014 and 2021.
I think in a few years time people will be saying "if only I'd bought O &G companies" in the early 20's. I doubt you'll see the Google or Apple explosive growth because they aren't NEW industries. There are always buyers for something with NEW stamped on it. Cadbury's use it very successfully with me.
But, I think we'll be like housing between 1980 and 2020 with the odd hiccup. Many people will never invest in O&G for a variety of reasons but I think ESG is pretty low on the list. I believe that it will be quite an increase in percentage terms and will have added momentum because of the lack of returns in the stars of zero interest rates also facing up to real world fundamentals. We're seeing it with all the internet stars - food deliveries, uber, bohoo and Asos etc... without going into NFTs, SPACS, bitcoin and energy in a jar.

Be Lucky

Now that is an outlier/contrarian view Lytham but I'm not discounting it. A certain group of politicians left the truth behind some years ago and would have no problem spinning against the current [weakening] evangelism of the ESG cult. Trump, Johnson and Putin immediately leap to mind. Reality costs and once the people are faced with burning £50 notes or using fossil energy I know which way they'll jump [they being the voting public who have had the true cost of renewables hidden from them].
The answer as always will be compromise. It is always easy to promise something that can never be proved. A choice has to be made. Dump fossils immediately and watch millions suffer (that includes the West this time) because some bearded, unemployed know-nothing has the other side of his face glued to a motorway says so or accept that the Industrial Revolution improved the wealth and health of billions and the trade-off was increased emissions. There's a lot of wasteage in renewables too. Fossils to make them and then what to do with turbine blades, batteries and solar panels once they've passed their economic life. Only a fool thinks an energy transition of this magnitude is simple.
It took a long time before people stopped burning people at the stake for being "unbelievers". Some people on here seem to be trapped in some kind of a time-warp?

It's about physics and costs - not about religion

Got this in my inbox. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-market-sees-support-physical-tightness-2022-07-18/

Don't really understand it but I'm not even at "O" level standard when it comes to oil. Does confirm what some of you guys were discussing recently.

Walking back from the dentist the heat got to me and my mind started wandering. This morning Hurricane RNS'd that they're debt free but it hasn't lifted the share price. Is that a 'careful what you wish for' warning? Anyway, I soon moved on. Most here know the UK housing market and I doubt its much different in Sweden. Prices have increased inexorably and we all know why. Housing is essential and it is in short supply. I regret selling some of the properties I have owned but few anticipated the climb and their PE's have traditionally been on the low side. They are also a pain to maintain.

The feelings about oil have now become so entrenched that there are two clear sides and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Many people think global warming is bad but are not prepared to reduce their standard of living and try to navigate a sea of ideology and ignorance. The small percentage of activists leverage this and make as much noise as possible with liberal use of superglue. Renewables will grow in the West because we can afford them but the percentage of oil produced in 2050 won't be that far away from what it is today, possibly higher.. It'll be cleaner but still essential and with one of the best EROoEI's around. Summed up here by an expert and more realistic than the usual guff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnT-PYHaSxA

There is enough misinformation and political pressure around to make sure the West won't be buying oil comnpanies in a hurry. But that doesn't mean it is all over for oil. Far, far from it. I've only got a 10 year view but they are probably a "forever" hold. The future of oil is the same as housing in the 70's. Regular ups and downs but only one long term direction unless its spolied by a combination of Unicorn tears and Angel dust. The ideology has created a moat (ESG movement) that stops new entrants and will self-impose limitations; just like housing.

There is no renewable energy - Scott W. Tinker
Energy won't end poverty. But, we can't end poverty without energy.

I'm just throwing these in as they aren't formulated in my mind and may be (or not) of little importance. We are about 6/7 weeks from the H1 update. Does that mean that there are only another 2/3 weeks when AB can BUY? I have something in my mind about a month before figures it is not allowed.
Harbour were relegated from the FTSE today. The UT was about a quartere of the value of shares traded today from LSE.
4mio shares and a UT of 891,773. In the past I have commented on big UT's at certain times and it was explained to me by Voiceofreason1 that this is technical and involves index tracking and happens on rebal days. I suspect that explains why HBR underperformed a little today although it wasn't an official rebal day. It is also encouraging that they still climbed.
Something is underpinning this change of sentiment. I like it.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1549023923785940995/photo/1

But good for holders of oil and oil stocks.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/net-zero-slumps-to-bottom-of-tory-members-priority-list-x0j2xqqjk

Trolls back in bin. Something has changed. A realisation that even climate changers are beginning to accept.
"Can't innovate out of an energy crisis--it doesn't power cars, trucks, ships or trains. Efficiency is part of the infantile fantasy. No energy source is clean but some contain less energy. There is no energy transition. Let's focus on an emissions transition" (Scott Tinker).
He isn't taking a side just stating bald facts such as these "The fact that the energy transition still has a long way to go, with currently the ‘new’ renewables of wind, solar, biomass and geothermal energy combined contributing only some 5% to global primary energy (BP, 2021)."
Something bigger went down in Jeddah. Maybe Biden came up against the fact that the world's rate of use of oil has long been much greater than its rate of finding oil, and hence the future global production of oil at prices that are sustainable to society is inevitably downward. You might need to read that twice. It isn't about price but production. He wanted increased oil production but instead of OPEC saying NO they said they'll try but are not hopeful. Nearly all politicians promise growth, and, at least so far, economic growth has required fossil fuels.
Each year reserves are incremented by the oil found through exploration and development and decreased by the oil produced. Herein lies a problem. What if the figures are manipulated or just plain misinterpreted? You'll have to read this I'm afraid. It is pretty much up to date:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666049022000524?via%3Dihub#bb0115
Separating fact from fiction is nigh on impossible. We debate oil priced in different locations and front end deliveries against futures etc. when in comes another problem in the many ways of calculating reserves and a major one between moving P2>P1.
Climate change activists given fossil fuels their best shot but it is still standing and an awareness that it [oil] is absolutely essential but what to do about those pesky emissions. It isn't an energy transition - it's an emissions transition we face.

The tide is on the turn for oil companies. The climate changers had their decade. Now it's our turn.

KO - if his problem is windfall tax or price of Brent why does he need to be glued to this particular message board? A watch list should be exactly that. At least if we need to know the efficacy and best super-glue to use we'll know where to go.
Over 11,000 posts of mind-numbing drivel; is that a record?

Sorry spin but that was the fib. Family finances had me owing my daughter £20. Jokingly I told her she could put it on England. She chose Italy because:
a. Their team was better looking.
b. Their National Anthem is uplifting and better than ours (I agree).
c. She's half Italian (on her mother's side obviously).

p.s. I told Pamela that I was married.

Scout fees. No, not the ones that interest the trolls (that's boy scouts) but the description applied to the relatively small number of oil consultancies (They include IHS Energy (a continuation of the earlier Petroconsultants), Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy and Globalshift Ltd.). They are called 'Scout' companies because they scout for the data they sell. Their data is much more reliable than the flawed public domain calculation of oil reserves. "As an indication of the value of these scout data, we note that oil consultancy databases of global exploration and production (E&P) data by field and project have an annual license fee typically in the region of $100,000. People in the know in the oil business are not likely to pay high prices for inaccurate data from the scout companies." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666049022000524?via%3Dihub#bb0115

Tip .... you can make a big saving by using the FREE data supplied to this message board by Stanley and Coco.

As always DYOR. Build it and they will come. Buybuy.

"facts for the record" yeah, right. I won £200 when Italy beat England in the Europeans and Pamela Anderson pulled me in a nightclub, took me to her place and ravished me.

*only one of the above is true. I'd never bet against England.

spin - I am in profit on EnQuest too but don't see much point in mentioning it. I don't follow your trading. I don't find it interesting. I haven't had any dividends so not a great investment but I treat it as a work in progress. Many LTH's are in a similar position to me.

spin - I have no idea what you're talking about.

"what is obvious to the rest of humanity" Er, no. Is that your message? How are your green investments doing and how is the heat pump performing?

Just Stop Oil and Insulate Britain might be your only friends but they don't represent "the rest of humanity". Stanley, you haven't even got a coherent message.

I doubt you have to go back many generations to find ancestors who lived short and brutal lives. I can rememebr my nan being terrified of the workhouse. Her life began with no washing machine, fridge, telephone or indoor toilet. Energy changed all that. Freeing up labour to move from subsistence living to enjoying the discretionary choices that were only available to the rich. Some would like to take us back to that bucolic dream which was in fact a time of hardship and grinding poverty for the majority. If fossil free is such a nirvana why are so many desperate people fleeing agrarian societies and risking death in dangerouse border and sea crossings, often accompanied by their children.
Give it a rest Stanley (a.k.a. chilting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Green) Find another oil company board to stalk and plant your billboard there.

*why would you turn up everyday for abuse. Odd.

I can only endorse everything you've posted. Most of us on here are or have been involved in something or other and whilst I'm far from being expert on oil there are areas where you have specialised knowledge and a potential advantage. The world prefers "dumbing down" and goes for short soundbites or headlines. Twitter set the limit and many would like it to be even lower. That cannot happen. Oil is extremely complicated.
They talk of "revenge of the old economy" and by progression it also means the "death of the newbies". SPACS, bitcoins and ESG promises are falling by the wayside and cannot stand up to adverse economic winds. They are not antifragile; oil is both antifragile and robust. Note how the O&G industry is taking ESG and converting it into effective economic energy with reduced emissions. Life has always been more complicated but the public have been sold a falsehood in believing in short cuts and "this time its different".
On the surface it appears Biden has come away from the Middle East empty-handed. I wonder what happens to oil between now and the next update?

* Antifragile; Things That gain from Disorder" - Nicholas taleb
*I, Pencil: My Family Tree" - Leonard E. Read

You're not just a pretty face Aloj. I suppose you could sell Malaysia/buy Brent to lock in the premium if it's possible.? There would still be a risk of the spread widening but I like your first explanation. We have enough riding on Brent without trading esoteric cross trades. Very interesting though. Oil is a fungible product so cheap and expensive does eventually leach into other areas. Sanctions impede but oil smuggling has been going on for decades. I get the impression that Enquest are well versed in maximising their products.
What if the Malaysian crude is the more realistic price. Will it pull Brent higher?
Excellent information.

Malaysia is near to Brunei but I don't want a Bentley. Another headache. What to spend it on?

The reason I think it is important in knowing the breakdown of PI's as well as funds is the percentage of LTH's and average holding (skin in the game). I'd rather be in the company of people who aren't out and out gamblers and to have a reasonable holding means they have got some things in life right and have usually done research. I think we're c.55% PI and it is a guess. That would be a holding of around a billion shares. It was higher but I sense a growing fund involvement and that is good news. I noticed that a US Charitable Trust now has a large holding in Harbour and Warren Buffet seldom lets his legion of fans down. There is an undercurrent and the wisdom of their purchases will come to light (imo) in a few months. Harbour are perhaps a more mature asset of EIG and they are now realising profits and raising finance to go for or increase newer early stage assets.
I can only go on the holdings of people I've met and who have told me their holdings and they are seldom small. A factor that has increased their holding is the OO and RI's that most of us LTH's contributed towards. On this basis the number of shareholders would be more like 2,000 or lower. We'll never know and I'm not sure what the benefit would be but I take succour from intelligent shareholders with experience and patience. I think the number of "visitors" is small and that the small free float of shares exaggerates movements. I think we just get lumped in with what is happening at (for instance) TLW, HBR and the AIM market. The paper market's role will always be larger than the physical but it is the physical which ties in closest to fundamentals and profit or loss.
The funds who are on board aren't fly-by-nights either and are certainly not mugs.

You can't fight the tide but it is turning. Our tax credit, SVT and early stage ventures, field potential and an energy crisis are now centre stage. The LTHs aren't ready to release stock yet and I expect a decent rerate over the coming months. I don't expect the PI percentage to increase. EnQuest has to some extent become Marmite. Even with professionals it won't appeal to everyone. Some see a large percentage holding by the founder as a negative; I don't.

Be Lucky