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Nomlungu
'always look for what is not said amongst what is said'
I agree.
Ukog did say:
'Bukat geological feature (anticline) extends into application block'
What Ukog didn't say:
'The prospects in the Ispandika-Bukat area have a recoverable reserve potential, of well-over 200 million bbl of 27º API crude oil. Average depth of the prospects is in the order of 7,000 feet.'
So, you're,right, look out for what Ukog haven't said .... but maybe it would have been good for them to do so.
:o)
Math
That's what AME do for all of their licences, as do GYP, they share the risk .... and equally, the reward on success.
GYP and AME even share the risk on certain licences, with 25% each.
It's commercially sensible despite you wishing to believe it's to the negative.
More importantly Penguins, you have as much understanding as I do about O + G in Turkey, so you can cut the pretence at being an armchair specialist.
However, AME, who Ukog have partnered with, have a lifetime of understanding of O + G in Turkey.
Call me old fashioned, but I'll give AME's views the benefit of the doubt over and above the views of a gaggle of disillusioned anonymous posters.
Penguins
And I get it that you along with many others can cut and paste or refer to websites with information to try to present to the negative.
Pot, kettle ....
Ibug
Of course there will be. Are all licences developed in year one ?
Mirasol
'the high rates would be in the early years'
Great ! Perfect scenario for Ukog then, because if they were successful, they have high production rates for the early years on that analogy, which would put the initial BOPD's much higher.
:o)
Penguins
The point being made is that the whole region, and also near to and next to Ukogs Licence area is highly prospective and largely under explored. Additionally, in the region where 100's of producing fields have been discovered over the decades according to AME.
It doesn't concern me that AME have sat on licences for years, before developing them, or 'licence banking', in the same way that property developers 'land bank' to develop at a later date.
Cem Sayer is no spring chicken, so he may now be looking for a few 'swan songs' as a legacy, just like his father. The whole family is wrapped up in O + G in Turkey, his relative Ecvet Sayer heads GYP in Turkey. They, as a family, firmly believe that Turkey hosts light oil fields the size of Iraq.
Further, for any of us here to purport to be 'armchair' O + G analysts or specialists, with assumptions to the positive or negative, in relation to Turkey, in addition to information being harder to gain than if it were in the Uk, is totally unrealistic.
I do, however, have a far greater trust in the views and analysis of O + G operators, who have spent their whole life analysing the area, such as AME, renowned for their expertise within Turkey and internationally.
And, particular to the Ukog licence area below.
' Multiple producing oil fields containing proven recoverable reserves lie to the immediate west and southeast of the license.'
_____
The license covers 305 sq km of the southeast Anatolian basin, a geological continuation of the Zagros fold-belt petroleum system within the foothills of the Taurus-Zagros mountains in Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. Multiple producing oil fields containing proven recoverable reserves lie to the immediate west and southeast of the license.
The undeveloped Basur oil discovery and Resan oil pay, both within the license's Cretaceous Mardin limestones, contain an aggregate unrisked gross mean oil in place (OIP) of about 253 million bbl, with a significant high case (P10) gross aggregate OIP of 495 million bbl.
An undrilled exploration target in the shallower Garzan limestones, Prospect A, adds further unrisked upside OIP potential of between 68-112 million bbl in the mean and high case (P10), respectively.
Future oil production will be exported via road tanker to the nearest oil refinery at Batman, some 80 km from the license.
UKOG will fund 100% of the first commitment well plus a small 2D seismic survey. UKOG’s net expenditure for the one well plus seismic program is capped at $5 million. Thereafter, the company will fund its 50% interest share, expected to be about $1.5 million per well.
_____
Ocelot
Well, the area around Siirt in Turkey certainly appears to have decent prospects.
This, not from Ukog, but less than 15 miles from the city of Siirt.
_____
Three of these features trend onto our licences and have been on production since 1945, 1951 and 1961 with cumulative production in excess of 54 million, 34 million and 41 million barrels, respectively. Average well depth is 4,400 feet and oil ranges from 24.0 to 27.0 API.
______
Those long term production totals, even if assumed to be given in the last year, work out at roughly 1,300 BOPD for one of them and roughly 2,000 BOPD for the other two over many decades.
Also, the reference by Ukog of the Bukat anticline into Ukog's block and the forecast (separate from any information provided by Ukog) of recoverable reserves potential of 'well-over 200 million bbl of 27º API crude oil' in the Ispandika-Bukat area, which I find interesting.
Ukog have already RNS'd that they'll be doing 2D seismic in Turkey too, so should provide them and AME with a more informed choice of where to drill.
:o)
From Ukog's Turkey Appraisal Well Presentation:
_______
Recent Bukat-1 understood to have brought oil to surface from same reservoir formation as E. Sadak.
Bukat geological feature (anticline) extends into application block
______
Separately, this is what Sayer Group write about the prospect area around Siirt and Bukat recoverable reserves at the bottom.
_______
The Project :
The prospect area is located in Siirt-District X, Southeast Turkey, less than 15 miles south of the city of Siirt and represent the continuation of large producing anticlinal features.
Three of these features trend onto our licences and have been on production since 1945, 1951 and 1961 with cumulative production in excess of 54 million, 34 million and 41 million barrels, respectively. Average well depth is 4,400 feet and oil ranges from 24.0 to 27.0 API.
The Ispandika Anticline is considered to be a promising structure for testing the deeper Paleozoic strata with a relatively shallow well. The proposed location Ispandika-1 is thus near the structural crest but not within the Mardin outcrop, since field work suggests that the Ispandika fault could be a reverse fault, and a location down-dip avoids cutting through the fault into the down-thrown northern limb of the anticline.
Drilling location will be based on the seismic interpretation intergrated with the field geology,aerial photography and Landsat data. TMO, EPS & GYP have a 50 %, 25 % and 25 % net revenue lease on 238,431 acres.
Reserves :
The prospects in the Ispandika-Bukat area have a recoverable reserve potential, of well-over 200 million bbl of 27º API crude oil. Average depth of the prospects is in the order of 7,000 feet.
Ninetails
That's virtually always the way with any placing for PI's for any stock.
Unless a fund or connected, the PI won't get the opportunity but if it facilitates progress and share price growth, that's where the PI does benefit.
They're the rules of engagement that are understood, albeit not preferred, from a PI perspective with all stocks.
Although already covered for this appraisal well, Ocelot, in October.
______
UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) is pleased to announce that further to the 23 July 2020 announcement of its agreement to take a 50% interest in the Turkish Resan oil appraisal and exploration project, it has successfully raised GBP2.2 million to fund its share of initial drilling and seismic costs through a placing ("Placing") of 1,374,999,993 new ordinary shares ("Placing Shares").
The Placing's issue price of 0.16 pence per share ("Placing Price")
______
Ozzy
Made me laugh and on this forum that's a result !
:O)
Ocelot
Many juniors in the sector are being poured over and considered for investment by PI's when they see an opportunity for developments and growth, even simply from the point of view that oil is up over 60% from November, 85% up from May and forecast to hit $100 by Goldman Sachs.
As touched on before, the Uk operations have been a complete drag from a 'time taken' perspective, so the following that relies on a third party operator who knows the territory in Turkey, with over fifty years under it's belt, and in a country where Uk Councils and Uk objectors don't exist, will be appealing:
From the RNS:
_____
"The breaking of ground at the new Basur-3 drilling site makes this material appraisal project very real and tangible.
The speed of entry into the operational phase, barely two months after government ratification of our entry into Turkey and despite pandemic constraints, nicely demonstrates the ability to move projects forwards at pace in Turkey, a welcome change from the UK.
We salute our highly experienced partner Aladdin Middle East's efforts in this respect and look forward to drilling and testing once the site is completed."
Penguin
A total exaggeration of the facts there.
"a P&D (the one that just happened?)"
It closed 23% up on Thursday from Wednesdays close , and closed 15% up on Friday from Wednesdays close.
It's hardly got off the ground yet from it's low. Not even a P's worth from the word Pump.
Ninetails
A measured response and appreciated.
Let's hope for your investing strategy, which I accept is different to mine in that it appears to have a singular facet, that my opinion is reflected in the fairly near term share price behaviour.
You unfortunately got your timing wrong when you initially invested, it happens to all of us, and if I get my timing wrong here on this occasion, I'll sell and move on, without a single moan, if for no other reason than it was my choice to throw money at it. What I struggle to understand though, is having acknowledged that the timing was wrong quite a while back, combined with you having no faith in the management or progress, your choice, or anyone else's for that matter in a similar circumstance, to remain invested and regularly whinge about it. It's unproductive and unprofitable, unless the peaks and troughs are being traded along the way. If it's been profitable to trade, then those achieving that genuinely have nothing to complain about in relation to the stock. That's the main intention after all, to make a profit at some point, for all of us.
All the best with your investing.
Ninetails
I did post on PREM, which I remember, but I didn't post on 88E (from memory).
The title was not mine in the post, for the record.
______
RollingInIt
Posted in: PREM
Posts: 1,043
Price: 0.069
No Opinion
RE: leaked news
18 Feb 2021 12:18
There's a lot of whining, blaming and finger pointing on here.
In the meantime, the volume is already seven times higher than the daily average and it's only midday.
Something must be driving the volume. Don't ask me what because I don't know.
_____
I don't post on every stock that I buy or that I trade, so I don't see your point.
As for your chosen phrase, 'encouragement for them', encouragement for who exactly and why 'encouragement' ?
Because my opinion differs to yours ? Because I see a development as a positive where you see a negative ? How dare I view it differently and actually put that view in print ?
And who are 'them' ? Other investors or traders ? Am I sensing an air of superiority in the way that you view your own opinions ?
Do you see your own negative opinions that you post as a form of 'discouragement for ''them'' ' ?
And if so, are you assuming that you're giving investment advice when you post ?
You'll probably say 'no', and it's the same for me, there is no 'advice' given.
If however, you choose 'yes', you're not qualified to do that and neither am I.
You're free to give your opinion though and equally, so am I. If we agree to disagree, so be it.
Ocelot
Yes. there was a 'ten times daily average' volume day this week. Similar at PREM and 88E just a short time before a rapid increase in price for both.
The vitriol from disillusioned holders at the time was far more prevalent on both stocks than here, which you may find surprising. :o)
.... such as Malkis. :o)
Forget 'the cards', it's enough to give anyone the creeps, other than for those who believe it and try to connect an image with an event.
Ibug
I'm more interested in AME's opinion, than UKOG's.
Having operated there successfully for over fifty years, they know more about Oil and Gas in Turkey than Ukog, and of more relevance, they know one hell of a lot more than you and I.
They're not just renowned in Turkey for their expertise, they're also considered experts in their field abroad, invited to speak at a webinar for CGEF, The Canadian Global Exploration Forum, in November last year.
_____
CGEF has three outstanding speakers discussing various aspects of the Turkish petroleum industry. Our first speaker will be Mr. Cem Sayer.
Mr. Sayer is the Chairman of the Board & President of Aladdin Middle East Ltd (AME). Aladdin is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company founded in 1961 and focused on the strategic exploration and exploitation of oil and gas assets in Turkey. AME is an industry leader in Turkish upstream and is the most senior private player in Turkey. Mr. Sayer will discuss AME’s operations in Turkey.
The second speaker is Ms. Berfu Aksoy. Berfu is a seasoned lawyer with extensive experience in Turkey’s energy industry. She is the founding partner of the Aksoy Law Offices based in Ankara and Istanbul. Ms. Aksoy will speak about Turkey’s oil and gas legislation and operating environment. She will also touch on the large offshore discovery recently announced by TPAO.
The third and final speaker is Mr. David Kisilevsky. Mr. Kisilevsky is Executive Vice President Exploration & COO of Gazelle Energy Limited. Gazelle Energy is a Canadian based, internationally-focused Exploration & Production company founded in 2018 and based in Calgary. Mr. Kisilevsky will give an overview of Gazelle’s exploration assets and opportunities in northwest Turkey.