Member Info for RollingInIt

Penguins

Easy translation from your post, with every 'perhaps'.

Perhaps, you're pretending to know more about the oil in Turkey and it's read over to Iraq, than AME, who have operated in both countries for decades.

From your armchair in the Uk, why don't you contact AME and tell them that you have a large number of 'perhaps's' that you'd like them to consider.

Penguins

Read what AME are saying.

They believe the oil at East Sadak is from the same source as the oil fields in Iraq.

They highlight that much of the surrounding area is under explored too.

They will be trying to further prove their assumptions with this drill.

In the Uk, there's no chance of further and larger discoveries of oil from the same source or size as in Iraq.

______

“Six years later, another crucial discovery was made in the same region, in an oil field called Oymantepe East Sadak, which turned out to be the first of its kind in Turkey where the same aged/sourced crude oil is being produced to that of Iraqi Kurdistan, but with a better quality – being above 43 API gravity.”

The Oymantepe East Sadak discovery is on trend with the oil discoveries of Tawke and other major oil fields in Iraq, such as the Kirkuk oil field, and is expected to add to the significant resource base already discovered.”

Nomlungu

That's not Turkey and that's why, as touched on before, I'm more interested in AME's views about Turkey.

You're not going to get the chance to discover an Iraq sized oil field in the Uk.

Positive changes.

_____

“Proving that there is commercial oil in Paleozoic sequence in Southeast Turkey by discovering 39 API gravity crude oil in the Arpatepe oil field in 2008, was one of the recent milestones we have reached,” reports Cem Sayer, President & CEO of AME.

“Six years later, another crucial discovery was made in the same region, in an oil field called Oymantepe East Sadak, which turned out to be the first of its kind in Turkey where the same aged/sourced crude oil is being produced to that of Iraqi Kurdistan, but with a better quality – being above 43 API gravity.”

Oil discoveries

With the Oymantepe East Sadak oil field also marking the lightest crude oil discovered to date in Turkey, Cem is optimistic that the discovery will help enhance several prospects located in the Southeast and the North of the country.

He adds: “While the SE Anatolian Basin – part of the Arabian plate – has been developed successfully and is currently producing from a number of fields of different size, the area in between these fields has been almost completely ignored. In an attempt to change that, our exploration efforts focus primarily on these very structures, as we believe that they have significant hydrocarbon potential.

The Oymantepe East Sadak discovery is on trend with the oil discoveries of Tawke and other major oil fields in Iraq, such as the Kirkuk oil field, and is expected to add to the significant resource base already discovered.”

Mirasol

Compare your 'two month' assumption to the time taken so far for the Uk operations and the prospects in Turkey to the prospects in the Uk

“Proving that there is commercial oil in Paleozoic sequence in Southeast Turkey by discovering 39 API gravity crude oil in the Arpatepe oil field in 2008, was one of the recent milestones we have reached,” reports Cem Sayer, President & CEO of AME.

“Six years later, another crucial discovery was made in the same region, in an oil field called Oymantepe East Sadak, which turned out to be the first of its kind in Turkey where the same aged/sourced crude oil is being produced to that of Iraqi Kurdistan, but with a better quality – being above 43 API gravity.”

Oil discoveries

With the Oymantepe East Sadak oil field also marking the lightest crude oil discovered to date in Turkey, Cem is optimistic that the discovery will help enhance several prospects located in the Southeast and the North of the country.

He adds: “While the SE Anatolian Basin – part of the Arabian plate – has been developed successfully and is currently producing from a number of fields of different size, the area in between these fields has been almost completely ignored. In an attempt to change that, our exploration efforts focus primarily on these very structures, as we believe that they have significant hydrocarbon potential.

The Oymantepe East Sadak discovery is on trend with the oil discoveries of Tawke and other major oil fields in Iraq, such as the Kirkuk oil field, and is expected to add to the significant resource base already discovered.”

Penguins

You can pretend as much as you like to be the 'armchair expert based in the Uk' of O ~ G deposits, formations and prospects in Turkey, but you're fooling no-one.

You know no more than any of us here and you know a lot less than AME, who have over fifty years under their belt .... and if you hadn't noticed they are still operating there. How would they have survived for so long if they didn't have expertise in their own sector ?

Second point, with everything that you claim being so bad as you purport it to be, yet you choose to remain invested.

Claiming to be in a 'paper loss' or 'waiting for the next spike to get out' and therefore not being prepared to sell yet, won't wash either, because if you thought it was just going to continue to get worse, that would result in a still greater 'paper loss' and also there wouldn't be a 'next spike' either, based on your perpetual doom hypothesis.

Actions speak far louder than words.

Ninetails

Another measured post and appreciated again. I get the distinct impression you're the 'peacemaker' in your personal life, if ever the need arises.

:o)

That said, I've devoted too much time already posting here over this weekend, much to my better half's disgust, so I'll go back to 'lurking', which I often choose to do on many stocks I hold, through necessity. There's only so many 'yes, I know, I promised I'd get that wall painted, and I will' .... etc, that I can get away with.

Galano

You make a very good point, highlighting the weakening Turkish Lira, particularly against the £.

Turkish costs for Ukog have got roughly 30% cheaper since they first announced entry into Turkey in July last year.

:o)

Haha ! How predictable, on cue, a barrage of sniping vitriol from 'The Negatives'.

ZYX

'Land Banking in the wrong context'. I'll give you that albeit not intentional.

I didn't regard your viewpoint as anything negative, for the record.

Penguins

As touched on before, I'm less interested in Ukog's PR unless it's corroborated by AME and others with decades of experience in Turkey.

But, equally, you can keep ignoring the positive information too from those operating in Turkey all you like. Pot, kettle, ....

And if you think repetetive negative PI 'reviews' have had no effect on the share price, given there are no Institutions playing a role, dream on in ignorant bliss. In which case, at least nobody can accuse you of being an 'intentional' self harmer.

Rich

A little, no make that very, weak accusation. The nearest thing I came near to anything called Sanderson was wallpaper, and it was/is dreadful, in my opinion.

A similar response from me would be accusing you of being a Ukog Uk protestor, which I'm not doing.

As for the lth's whining daily, see above reply to Penguns.

Of course it's the naive decision making of the management regarding the Uk assets, assuming or hoping there would be no costly delays. Involve a Uk Council in any decision making process, and it's bound to cost you time and money.

Hence, my opinion that Turkey is a positive change, without interference, no dithering or fear of their own shadow from decision making and it's future effect on voting direction, etc, from any Uk Council.

Qwerty

'just a few opportunists that are taking a big risk'

And what exactly were you, when you chose to buy Ukog at whatever stage you did ?

You felt at the time that it was 'an opportunity' to make a profit and you took a big risk. You just timed it wrong, as we all can or do from time to time.

So, you can get off your hypocritical pulpit and look in the mirror on that one.

Skwizz

'As if a bunch of small-time, know-nothing, PI's posting on a forum like this are capable of influencing the stock market.'

Considering that for many small cap stocks, they/we ARE the stock market, and while nobody else is trading in them, of course they/we influence a share price.

As for the 'ramper' label, if I was writing '2p tomorrow', 'wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend' or 'fill ya boots', then fair enough but simply because somebody sees an asset in a stocks portfolio as a positive change, the label is utter nonsense and I hope you've got enough years left to grow out of that one. Yawn.

Ocelot

'It is for each investor and potential investor to arrive at their own conclusion.'

Absolutely spot on !

Too many on here have been centre stage for years with Act One, Scene One 'The Nagatives', with endless encores and requests for yet more of 'The Negatives'.

Along come a few people with a different opinion about a fairly new development and some won't allow themselves to believe it could succeed and others despise that someone could see if differently to what they're used to.

I get it. Thankfully,, I haven't had to sit there for years whining and moaning and in candour, wouldn't have chosen that option anyway.

Day after day of endless criticism of an investment they chose to make, a ridiculous scenario, almost borderline foolish.

If they think their constant doom and gloom sniping posts have no effect on their own financial prospects, they need to rethink.

This stock is driven by PI interest, not institutions. It's like anything else that someone is considering to throw money at.

My better half is regularly looking at items for the house, sofas, pictures, ornaments, etc.

'I really like this one, it looks great, I nearly bought it but the majority of reviews are bad, so I'm going give it a miss' .... a sentence she often uses, or similar.

These negative posts they keep spewing out are the same, they're 'reviews', read by other PI's .... and then they sit there frustrated at the share price performance to date, day after day, and moan some more.

Truly self defeating and self harming.

Anyway, there's only so much time I wish to devote to debating with negative types and I'm now going to enjoy the rest of my day away from it.

:o)

Ninetails

That's exactly why I see it as a positive change.

Possibly 'dragged along' to success in Turkey by AME.

That, and of course, the rapidly improved speed of progress, without the Uk Councils and Uk objectors and also the lower operating costs in Turkey.

ZYX

Sitting on a licence for four years prior to doing any seismics or drilling can be considered to be licence banking. Are you suggesting that all licences in Turkey are drilled in the first year ? In the same way, property developers can sit on planning approved land for three years prior to putting any of the footings down.

Nomlungu

'always look for what is not said amongst what is said'

I agree.

Ukog did say:

'Bukat geological feature (anticline) extends into application block'

What Ukog didn't say:

'The prospects in the Ispandika-Bukat area have a recoverable reserve potential, of well-over 200 million bbl of 27º API crude oil. Average depth of the prospects is in the order of 7,000 feet.'

So, you're,right, look out for what Ukog haven't said .... but maybe it would have been good for them to do so.

:o)

Math

That's what AME do for all of their licences, as do GYP, they share the risk .... and equally, the reward on success.

GYP and AME even share the risk on certain licences, with 25% each.

It's commercially sensible despite you wishing to believe it's to the negative.

More importantly Penguins, you have as much understanding as I do about O + G in Turkey, so you can cut the pretence at being an armchair specialist.

However, AME, who Ukog have partnered with, have a lifetime of understanding of O + G in Turkey.

Call me old fashioned, but I'll give AME's views the benefit of the doubt over and above the views of a gaggle of disillusioned anonymous posters.

Penguins

And I get it that you along with many others can cut and paste or refer to websites with information to try to present to the negative.

Pot, kettle ....

Ibug

Of course there will be. Are all licences developed in year one ?

Mirasol

'the high rates would be in the early years'

Great ! Perfect scenario for Ukog then, because if they were successful, they have high production rates for the early years on that analogy, which would put the initial BOPD's much higher.

:o)

Penguins

The point being made is that the whole region, and also near to and next to Ukogs Licence area is highly prospective and largely under explored. Additionally, in the region where 100's of producing fields have been discovered over the decades according to AME.

It doesn't concern me that AME have sat on licences for years, before developing them, or 'licence banking', in the same way that property developers 'land bank' to develop at a later date.

Cem Sayer is no spring chicken, so he may now be looking for a few 'swan songs' as a legacy, just like his father. The whole family is wrapped up in O + G in Turkey, his relative Ecvet Sayer heads GYP in Turkey. They, as a family, firmly believe that Turkey hosts light oil fields the size of Iraq.

Further, for any of us here to purport to be 'armchair' O + G analysts or specialists, with assumptions to the positive or negative, in relation to Turkey, in addition to information being harder to gain than if it were in the Uk, is totally unrealistic.

I do, however, have a far greater trust in the views and analysis of O + G operators, who have spent their whole life analysing the area, such as AME, renowned for their expertise within Turkey and internationally.

And, particular to the Ukog licence area below.

' Multiple producing oil fields containing proven recoverable reserves lie to the immediate west and southeast of the license.'

_____

The license covers 305 sq km of the southeast Anatolian basin, a geological continuation of the Zagros fold-belt petroleum system within the foothills of the Taurus-Zagros mountains in Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. Multiple producing oil fields containing proven recoverable reserves lie to the immediate west and southeast of the license.

The undeveloped Basur oil discovery and Resan oil pay, both within the license's Cretaceous Mardin limestones, contain an aggregate unrisked gross mean oil in place (OIP) of about 253 million bbl, with a significant high case (P10) gross aggregate OIP of 495 million bbl.

An undrilled exploration target in the shallower Garzan limestones, Prospect A, adds further unrisked upside OIP potential of between 68-112 million bbl in the mean and high case (P10), respectively.

Future oil production will be exported via road tanker to the nearest oil refinery at Batman, some 80 km from the license.

UKOG will fund 100% of the first commitment well plus a small 2D seismic survey. UKOG’s net expenditure for the one well plus seismic program is capped at $5 million. Thereafter, the company will fund its 50% interest share, expected to be about $1.5 million per well.

_____