Member Info for RollingInIt

Spotted this post on Adv today and as it appears that nobody had bothered, thought I'd oblige his/her request.

As follows:

_________

gimmetheloot9 Aug '18 - 14:34 - 958 of 959
0 1 0
I have been banned posting as “BurmesePython” over on LSE. I am still invested in IMTK and will take full advantage of any dips.

Can someone just let peeps on the LSE board know I’ve been banned but will be posting here.

_______

Well, it's gone from 1.772p to 1.85p and now 2.12p for your hoard.

The tight fisted swine are loosening their grip. :O)

Oil Search and Repsol both estimate sub $30 Million and that's for a producing well.

This is an appraisal well/test well and the cost is estimated for drilling only. If they hit the payload, then they'll have completion costs to add on but who will care at that stage and with that result.

88e and Otto already have skin in the Alaskan game, so they'll know how to estimate their costs already for low cost, shallow, conventional.

Confirmed, great news. :o)

Mike

I approve of him taking the effort to try to get the message about the potential of the asset out there in a succinct form, that's it. Anything above that is your own interpretation, not mine.

Lofty

The following post from Hotcopper in Oz.

__________

The Consortium have to pay to the SOA a Performance Bond of USD 3 Million by this Tuesday 31/7/18. I don't know if proof of this payment will be enough for the ASX to lift the suspension ? I hope so.

Mike

I'm not concerned about posts attempting to mislead. They're a regular occurence within most forms of investment media and I can communicate directly with those at the helm, regardless.

There's nothing in this write up that isn't already reported, whether through Otto, 88e, RMP, Bill Armstrong, commentators on the North Slope, etc.

What he's done though, is put forward an easy reading summary and for those that can't be bothered or devote the time to resarch, it's informative.

His 'back of fag packet' numbers aren't any better than our own but if we tried to highlight them on other threads or forums, we'd have the 'spammer' or 'ramper' accolade. They're broadcast to a much larger audience than we could devote the time to reaching. Most brokers are lazy bar stew ards, so you're right, all publicity helps.

Don't forget Mike, it's not just about you and I being convinced by the investment case, it needs plenty more PI's buying and some micro cap institutional invesment wouldn't go amiss too, and you know the rest that follows, more buyers, more volume, better sentiment, price goes up.

Hence my appreciation of his efforts in this instance. We just need a few more doing the same thing with far larger audiences too.

All sealed traps filled to spill, yep, great feature, as is the location, the seismics the same as next door, the 100% wildcat oil strike rate next door, the low cost shallow drill, the close pipelines, the 126 million barrels net to RMP, etcetc. :o)

Mike

I don't know his history and neither do I ever consider anyone to be an investing 'guru'. The investing decisions I make for me are my own and as for 'following him', in this example, it's the other way around. I invested here before he put his write up out there.

Despite all of that, as Mach put it, the merits of the Alaskan asset need to be advertised, so any free advertising by this chap or any other, for me, is a good thing. The more PI's interested in the stock, the better.

He hasn't written anything that's inaccurate in terms of the features of the asset and yes, his figures are 'back of fag packet' but that's exactly what all of us do when considering the potential future returns from an investment.

He's not writing 'after the event' on his numbers, he's writing 'before the event', in reference to pre drill, success on drilling, potential future interested parties if all goes to plan, etc.

I don't disagree with his numbers if it all falls into place and as Mach wrote, none of us know exactly where the price will end up but it's good to speculate on the potential of the asset, and there's plenty of positives going for it, that's what most of us do prior to and during any investment.

As written previously, at least he's putting the effort in to highlight the merits RMP's Alaskan asset and that alone, for me, is a massive plus.

The more, the merrier. :o)

Having never listened to any interviews he may have made with other companies in the past, I can't agree or disagree, he may well be a boring swine as you describe, albeit with a caveat that hearsay about fake news can often be fake news in itself.

I have no issue with his simple 'mathematics' though, based on barrels of oil, low extraction costs and potential assumptions in the event of differing levels of successful progress, and at least he's taken the effort to put it forward in a fairly succinct form, so as I'm invested here, fair play to him and his efforts.

Thanks, Chartman, although I don't think he's bearing the gift, potentially, Otto and the Alaskan asset is.

This part:

_________

Cost Targets

With the share of the company stake running at over 100mmbls on a successful drill the share price at a low price per barrel in the ground could be as follows.

Pre drill – I hope to see the Mcap around 60-70mn or so. Or around 14p a share

Successful drill – at target depth and prospect of 126mmbls achieved with good flow rates etc. I would like to see a Mcap of around 200mn or 50p per share and further market driven gains to around 300mn or 70p per share. This is only valuing oil in the ground at a few dollars and should be easily achievable.

Buyout target. The conventional plays are running at around $20 per barrel for extraction and with oil at $75 a barrel then we can apply a target price of around 100mmbls x $55per barrel = $5.5BN total valuation overall, this may attract a buyout offer of 1.5-2bn for RMP’s stake.

If my targets are met then a £1000 stake at 2p could be worth…

At 14p predrill would be £7k de-risking £3.5k so £3.5k left in if drill successful then at 50p per share the remaining stake would be circa £12k…

If this is the target of a takeover then per 1bn stake the cost per share could be around £2 per share or a one hundred bagger. If at the upper end target £3 a share plus may not be unreasonable.

The majors are looking to buy high barrel prospects in this safe geopolitical area and Alaska has massive tax breaks and good infrastructure as we know with Repsol being next door it would actually lower their costs of production if they bought this prospect.

I have contacted the company and hope to be able to interview them very soon to provide up to date information and get to know them better.

I have taken a position but will be looking to add as and when I can. I plan to de-risk potentially a small amount predrill and will assess as I go along and let you know as the story progresses.

Summary

Good geopolitical area

Good geology

Good prospects for further drills to be planned

Fully funded drill campaign Cash back from great bear upon key news items in due course

Good cash position to cover normal administration costs

Current low Mcap

Low cash burn of £1mn per year

Further resource upgrades will potentially happen as the 3D data set is further interpreted.



These are just my thoughts on the company and are not intended as investment advice. Please use this however as part of your research into the company… happy investing…

Strange notice on HL, Jase ?

Sprint

The displayed bid and offer are rarely the actual bid and offer, also the real spread is mostly far less than the advertised spread on here, and particular to this stock, quite often the advertised mid is inaccurate for large parts of any trading day. It's easier to look at the chart on Adv to see what the actual mid price is and the advertised mid price often corrects itself to the chart price at the end of the trading day.

In short, the advertised mid, bid, offer and spread for RMP is more often than not, complete boolarks.

Miserly swines !

Offering crumbs for pearls, it's a cruel world out there. ;o)

Cwebb

All I do is consider the value of their target, on a successful drill, coupled with the factors relating to the asset itself.

Similar seismics to the multi billion barrel deposit adjacent to it, where every drill has hit oil. Conventional onshore, low cost, shallow drill in a democratic friendly country. Low cost route to market with close pipelines.

Net to RMP, 126 million barrels of oil, or roughly £ 7 Billion worth of oil.

Current market cap around £8.5 million.

So, on that basis, on the anticipation of success, multiples of the current price, whether there is a pre drill placing higher up or not. If, as an example, he decides to go for the size of placing, 20% of the equity, that he did three years ago pre drill, if it reaches 5p a share, that would only add on £4 or £5 million and give a market cap of £25 million, which, for me would still be very low pre drill in relation to any successful outcome on the drill.

A few other posters have put their valuation views forward on a successful outcome.
_________________

Phoebus

126 MMBOE net onshore US at $5 per barrel works out at over 100p per share
_________________

Tiburn

Assuming a conservative £10 a barrel in the ground value, 126 mb = £1.5 Billion NPV to RMP

With a current market cap of £6m, that a multiplier of 250 on our current SP of 2p = £5 a share

Assuming only 10% of this value is achieved = 50p a share
_________________

Tiburn

Thanks and yes, this asset is in a friendly (to us at least), democratic country where we also share the language, which always helps. :o)

Thanks for that information Mike.

I'll take 'filled to spill' on RMP's conventional asset every day of the week. :O)

I imagine 88e will find managing a conventional drill in the Western Blocks a breeze in comparison to the unconventional oil shale drills they've been managing there to date.

Shallow drill too, according to Otto.

_______________

Project economics will be further enhanced by the shallow nature of the oil pool.

Fubs

If you hang around the goal long enough, ocassionally you get the chance to score a goal. Could be the case here.

In candour, it's no different with all of us here too when choosing investments.

Don't forget, another of your concerns gets diluted or removed. If 88e are managing the drill, and after all it's a straightforward conventional shallow affair (Otto's presentation: 'Project economics will be further enhanced by the shallow nature of the oil pool.' ), it's 88e that will be providing the updates, so little room for any misreporting of events as they unfold, which you were cautious about. That's another reason why having multiple commercial partners works. :o)

Hoover, on that fact, you're quite correct.

You couldn't have put it better and let's face it, you didn't.

Yours was and is the antipodes.

Fubs

I appreciate the words of caution, genuinely.

Why do you think I chose to contact the company to determine placing intent ?

The response was an open one and I've written to many companies over the years and if avoiding an answer comes into play, it's quite transparent.

You already know that my hunch is that a placing could occur prior to the drill but at a much higher price, which concurs with your view, and the drill is six months away.

I have no issue about words of caution but there are many uneccessarily repeated vitriolic claims that demonstrate bitterness from the past, totally understandable, albeit stuck in that historical mindset and refusing to look at the changes relating to this asset, it's relationship to the other participants and the appointment of fresh blood.

The asset is as near to as good as it gets in exploration terms, not just for RMP, but for any stock.

88e are managing the drilling, so RMP will have no choice but to be dragged along by 88e's activity, a criticism, therefore, removed for being historically inactive.

The Western Blocks location and seismic similarity, is a massive plus.

On the placing front, all exploration experiences it, so it's 'a neccessary' in this sector and even if he does do a 20% equity placing when the price is far higher, the market cap could take it. They're going after £7 Billions worth of oil net to RMP, after all.

Nothings ever a guarantee, but the odds for the asset are very good. Maybe, being good at selling snake oil also landed RMP the opportunity on the Western Blocks, so it may have paid off finally.

That aside Fubs, there are some posters, who are just simply wind up merchants, making unsubstantiated claims and they're easy to spot.

When someone repeats the same old stuff that is already known and completely disregards the new developments, the other participants and the asset, which by default changes the dynamic, I'll take them to task or challenge it.

I invested to make a profit. I could take that profit already but my hunch is that it's still way undervalued and the asset and partners will drag RMP's price along with them.

A £7 Billion prize to RMP or to any other stock is a risk reward I'm happy to take.

Again though, I know you're being sincere, I could tell in your previous responses too, and I appreciate it. Thank you.

There are no rose tinted glasses.

Trying to make out that a placing could be now because it's risen 30% is a joke and that anyone should believe your humorous claims over an emailed response from the company only two days ago is also a joke of the a similar quality.

Equally, there are intelligence filters for anyone to statements or assumptions without merit from any angle, including from you.

On Friday, when the price was 1.69p, you claimed that the price would languish for plenty more days at that level.

When you were challenged about your 'homemade' facts, you claimed that we should revisit your claims after we've had some facts and that it was likely that that you'd be proved right.

Two trading days later, it rose by 30%.

So, after the 'fact' of it rising 30%, that's 'proved' that you were wrong.

My hunch, which is no guarantee, just a hunch, unlike your self proclaimed facts that you claimed you would be proved right on, is that you will continue to be wrong.

Doesn't make any difference to the direction of the price but you are demonstrating a 'Trump'esque response to getting something wrong.

Hilarious.

It does mean that there won't be one now and that there won't be one at this lowly price.

Show me a stock that guarantees never to have a future placing with exploration.