Member Info for Rogue_rader

I agree. Their current PE only lines up with other software houses (SUMO, Codemasters) if you look at FY23 projected revenues, so the valuation does look reasonable now but only in lieu of future deals.

@Longmeadow - Their is some Elite Lore relating to that around the release of Elite III (Elite- First Encounters) in 1995. The publishers forced an early release much to David Brabens distaste and what could have been an acclaimed blockbuster was in fact a glitchy buggy eyesore that was actually not as good as its 1993 prequel Frontier Elite II.

Thats why Braben waited so long to release Elite Dangerous and wants it to be perfection on release - which I agree is good for long term business.

To be honest though I think that they are struggling a bit and on the face of it these delays are bad news, forgivable only by the fact that in the trading update they confirm that they will meet FY21 guidance even without the space legs. You could say- Corona came to their rescue!

I just took a look at Avon Rubber following their 2020 FY data: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYaoYw46g0o

They really do have a compelling business model, it is reasonable to project good long term revenue growth, however their is a certain amount of risk and uncertainty attached to these projections. If their is continuation in their recent share price drop they could well be in bargain territory so Im looking out for that to de-risk what seems a very enticing investment.

Elite Dangerous looks like it is 3x users year on year. Planet Zoo seems flat but robust (I dont think they make so much cash from planet zoo though other than expansion packs)

Elite Dangerous:

Last 30 Days 9,078.9 +432.1 +5.00% 17,735
November 2020 8,646.8 +1,901.0 +28.18% 17,735
October 2020 6,745.8 +1,335.2 +24.68% 12,078
September 2020 5,410.6 +77.6 +1.46% 8,957
August 2020 5,333.0 -2,516.8 -32.06% 9,382
July 2020 7,849.8 -2,244.3 -22.23% 14,925
June 2020 10,094.1 +3,293.9 +48.44% 21,535
May 2020 6,800.3 -1,439.7 -17.47% 12,794
April 2020 8,239.9 +4,070.6 +97.63% 15,403
March 2020 4,169.3 -166.9 -3.85% 11,026
February 2020 4,336.2 -1,229.6 -22.09% 8,490
January 2020 5,565.8 +432.5 +8.43% 10,011
December 2019 5,133.3 +1,640.7 +46.98% 9,756
November 2019 3,492.6 -74.5 -2.09% 7,252
October 2019 3,567.1 -911.0 -20.34% 6,860
September 2019 4,478.1 +376.1 +9.17% 8,624
August 2019 4,102.0 -259.9 -5.96% 8,052
July 2019 4,361.9 +1,167.2 +36.53% 8,668
June 2019 3,194.8 -1,032.0 -24.42% 6,001

Anyone being researching FDEV? I am a little apprehensive of the pre- Jan update as they dont seem to have done much this H2 in terms of sales of current games? Obviously their is a lot of Jam in the future with the Games Workshop & F1..... but what about this years results?

I posted a video update on Cranswick plc : https://youtu.be/M-egl2Mkxio

They really are a very impressively put together company that has been well managed for many years. As tantalising as the smell of a bacon butty in the morning - in the end they have to stay on my Watch list as I dont want to go in until their is more clarity on the Brexit situation. I think its important to see how things play out next year as even with a deal Brexit their should be increases in wage costs and the effect of trading with the rest of the world on Pig and Poultry prices is extremely difficult to predict.

Hey Elffin - where did you get the overall player numbers from to get the 200k+ increase in players?

Found this new Analysis on Yellow Cake & Uranium spot market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZyYuWzxcPs

Yellowcake look like a good way to invest into the Uranium commodity - Their does seem to be a supply crunch in the medium term. his report takes a look into Uranium inventories and its interesting to see that the US/EU really are thin on Uranium stockpiles whilst China hoards 12 times it yearly requirements! YCA.L are only suitable for those with a certain risk appetite but it does make for an enticing asymmetrical bet if you can deal with some of the key risks!

Good analysis of Gamesys here: https://youtu.be/BKa1OqYK_iY

I think that its because their fantastic revenue growth is already priced in - they need to continue to maintain these sales in order to justify price which takes account also of their 0.5 Bn of debt which they incurred in order to achieve their massive gaming platform acquisition in 2019

Fairly detailed analysis of Hikma Pharmaceuticals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eFaOtB9fBY

All in a very good defensive stock! Good solid back record and revenues only going to benefit (in my opinion) from Corona situation and Biden presidency

30 minute in depth analysis of Avon Rubber: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70I3uqxCZto

The 3M ballistic business acquisition was deal of the century - the Team Wendys takeover & Dairy business disposal create a streamlined business moving forward - but are they cheap following the recent quadrupling of share price?

Just seen an excellent analysis of BAE Systems. 30 mins in depth video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twCkG1RiAY0

I've gone in now. Could t hold out any longer. As far as Im concerned the price has dropped 10% recently whilst their latest third quarter RNS confirmed that their status was still forerro rocher excellent. I think that Softcat are a great play on firms digitising their businesses in response to Covid. Im worried though generally of a major stock market crash but thats why Im only tentatively loaded into stocks this year in terms of overall portfolio.

A nice deep dive into Qinetiq as a Defensive Stock: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIl0wt7rVt8

They are overall in my opinion a solid defensive stock with little debt and a good management team. Their are some significant risks including Joe Biden getting elected in the US elections in November and government austerity effecting MOD budgets, but the medium and long term potential for Qinetiq seem very impressive. The share price seems very sensible compared against their increased revenues, assets and equity profile over the same period. Net income is narrowing and thats a critical indicator for the future.

Just took a look at Cranswick plc : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wr5UtYbJhpk

They seem like a good defensive stock as verified by their relatively stable price action against the backdrop of high volatility in the FTSE. They have a solid finances with good long term revenue growth and future momentum is underpinned by their recent investments to expand their animal farming and processing complex. I was a little bemused by their purchase of Katsouris brothers and it seems a shame that they have ended their run of being debt free to facilitate their recent investments but this relatively small risk does offer a good case for future net income growth. Ultimately- I found Cranswick to be a compelling Defensive Stock versus other options in the food sector.

I Just took a look at SoftCat and posted a vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cin8SZECfs

SoftCat have an excellent trend of increasing net income from a very compelling organic growth model. In their latest interim call they highlighted an increase in customers and revenue per customer and their main market of providing IT infrastructure makes a compelling case for their future growth potential.

They have absolutely ZERO DEBT and are at a 10% discount to pre Corona levels. The only fly in the ointment was their recent interim dividend cancellation :.O. Overall I was very impressed by Softcat and whilst the overall market looks very hazardous, they are currently an excellent contender for my portfolio!

Just posted an analysis of Kainos Group plc : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEr89x5HSjQ

Kainos have a strong track record and currently at a 20% discount to pre corona levels look like a credible defensive stock. On deeper scrutiny - I found that they are heavily dependant on the UK government as their main cash cow and as they reach an inflection point in revenues from the public sector their future success relies on their ability to generate increased revenues from the corporate sector in a challenging expansion into North America and Europe.

Their recent trading update was full of mixed messages and so they are not a clear winner but are nevertheless certainly in contention as a good defensive stock pick.

I Just posted an analysis of Gamesys : https://youtu.be/IpFfpi4HTNY

Although their price has increased considerably since the initial Corona crash, they have reported a 19% boost in sales in the first quarter and look set to meet analysis 3x revenue targets. The fly in the ointment is their 0.5 Bn in debt - but all the same look like a very convincing defensive stock which tap in amazingly to the modern day phenomenon of obsessive smartphone usage.

Correction - retail is 2 thirds of current profits in a normal year (2019 numbers were different because of a restructuring of the Vets business)