RE: Broker8 Jun 2019 12:02
From Edison report
Valuation: 207–458% premium to the share price
We calculate that Tulu Kapi is capable of generating free cash flow of c £48.0m a year for seven years, from 2021 to 2027. With average (maximum potential) dividends of 0.95p/share for the nine years from 2021 to 2029 inclusive (after deduction of a 55% ‘minority’ interest), and assuming the full conversion of KEFI’s £4m secured convertible loan facility, this implies a valuation for KEFI of 4.70p/share (at a 10% discount rate), rising to 5.69p/share in FY21. However, this valuation increases further, to 5.35p, in the event of the drawdown of only £3m of the convertible loan facility and the conversion of half of that into shares, and to 5.85p in the event that the whole facility is repaid in cash in the manner of conventional debt. Stated alternatively, assuming full drawdown and conversion, we estimate an investment in KEFI shares on 1 January 2019 at a price of 1.53p could generate an internal rate of return to investors of 36.8% over 11 years to 2029 in sterling terms. Note however, that this valuation is based on the projected dividend flow resulting from the execution of the Tulu Kapi project alone, and ignores the exploration and development of the pipeline of targets in the KEFI portfolio. In the event that KEFI is ultimately successful in leveraging its cash flow from the mine into its other assets in the region, our valuation rises to 8.53p/share.