RE: A good time to....3 Dec 2025 09:51
Share price will reflect true value as bears are being proved wrong because the "niche research tool" thesis has been dismantled by the explosive adoption of the high-throughput PromethION platform. Doubters argued that Oxford Nanopore would remain stuck in low-volume academic labs, yet PromethION sales surged approximately 60% in the first half of 2025.
This confirms that industrial and commercial customers—who sign larger, stickier contracts—are actively replacing legacy technology (like Illumina) with Nanopore for production-scale sequencing. The company’s confirmation in November 2025 that full-year revenue will hit the top end of guidance (23% growth) directly contradicts the "growth slowdown" narrative, proving that demand is accelerating despite a tough macro environment.
Furthermore, the "cash burn" fear is being invalidated by a tangible shift toward high-quality, recurring clinical revenue for 2026. Unlike volatile academic grants, the new growth drivers are multi-year infrastructure projects, such as the UK Biobank contract (which ramps fully in 2026) and the strategic biosecurity partnership with the UK government. These deals lock in revenue visibility that the bears claimed didn't exist. With the company successfully narrowing its EBITDA losses and maintaining gross margins around 59%, the path to profitability is now driven by execution rather than speculation, leaving short sellers with a shrinking window to justify their pessimism.