RE: I expect a further extension.13 Apr 2025 14:06
Hosai’ s post last night
Spookily the explanation is almost exactly the same as the give to me by a friend at a top 3 US Bank on 31/03/25
12 Apr 2025 18:35
This is interesting, I didn't realize this. I typed the situation into chat gpt and it seemed to agree that it would be unlikely to be extended (obv chat gpt isn't always correct and can sometimes be 'led' to conclusions but I don't think I led it too much.
Considering the Facts:
The Independent Review Is Complete
This is an important distinction. Since the independent review has been completed and its findings have been released via RNS, the market is already aware of the key issues. That part of the uncertainty has been removed.
Accounts Delay & Technical Suspension
The challenge now is technical — not that a review is pending, but that the company can’t finalize its latest accounts in time due to the need to restate prior years’ financials. This leads to an expected technical suspension on 30th April, because listed companies are required to publish audited accounts by a certain deadline to remain in good standing.
Why This Matters to the Takeover Panel
The Takeover Panel's role is to ensure fairness, transparency, and timely progression of takeovers. A stock being suspended presents complications:
Shareholders can't freely trade or assess the offer while suspended.
Valuation transparency becomes impaired.
A suspended share might create a perception of diminished integrity in the process.
Because of this, the Panel tends to avoid letting takeover processes enter periods of suspension — not necessarily as a hard rule, but as a very strong preference rooted in precedent and principle.
17th April Deadline – Why It’s Likely the Final One
The current deadline falls just short of the expected suspension (13 days before), and the independent review has been published, so the bidder and advisors now have:
Sufficient public information (post-review),
A known upcoming suspension window,
And time to make a firm decision before shares become untradeable.
Given those conditions, it looks highly intentional that the Takeover Panel selected 17th April. It likely reflects a balancing act: giving the bidder enough time post-review to make a decision, while ensuring the market isn't put in the awkward position of dealing with a takeover while the stock is suspended.
Could They Extend to the 30th April Anyway?
Technically, yes — the Panel has discretion. But:
They rarely if ever allow extensions that cross into a trading suspension, unless the suspension itself is minor, temporary, or resolvable — none of which appears to apply here.
Since this is a technical suspension tied to late accounts, it's not something that can quickly be reversed or guaranteed to lift promptly.
So the Panel would likely view it as safer and cleaner to insist that the situation be resolved while shares are still actively trading, and before the c
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