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The DFS route is slow but gives confidence in the value of resource in the ground and that confidence supports the Joint Venture route where your partner funds the mine and is willing to wait for a share of the known outcome.
This pilot plant route may work but seems to have supported a different funding scheme. With no guaranteed resource the partner didn't join the venture, instead they gave a prepayment and deadlines for production... meaning if it doesn't produce the goods they can demand their money back.
If it works, it's a great play that was probably faster and probably gives more value to Prem than the JV route.
If it doesn't work then it's probably protected Canmax more and may be existential threat to Prem.
He who dares and all that.
Oakgrove, as someone watching both boards it seems that the worst offenders on both boards blame the worst offenders from the other board for their own bad behaviour.
It's classic "I'll stop when they stop" or even "but they started it".
Peculiar, I have seen the same comment but reversed over on the KOD board. I have no opinion on who started it. And I don't really see how people would not shout down such behaviour.
But some people here are so entrenched in this them vs us thing that they have become fans instead of investors and now if anyone highlights an area if uncertainty its called deramping and attributed to an agenda.
there's a lot of antagonism on this board and it's clear to see why when there are regular posters from here winding up the kod board and regular kod posters coming here to jeer back.
but that "them vs us" mentality can shut out good debate as well as shout down the sh*tstirrers.
it's human nature to double down on decisions we've made and to form in-groups and out-groups -just like when supporting a football team you picked in childhood that's doing really badly but where you'll fight to the death to defend their honour, especially against fans of the local derby rival.
but that's the action of a fan. an investor should be different. an investor should try to rise above the biases of fandom and try to just look at information. the focus should be on what was said, not who said it. it shouldn't matter if you think it was "one of them" that raised a point, just whether the point has value.
difficult, true, because the internet is full of trolls and "them vs us" is the basic building block of human society but... well worth striving towards.
most of you will know all this im sure. but i've been thinking about it for a couple of days. someone on here who likes to attack the messenger rather than the message came out and basically said they are a fan rather than an investor when they said,
" its like walking into a bar full of liverpool fans wearing a man united shirt and shouting liverpool are ****"
just because someone challenged hyperpositivity by suggesting the rns left a lot of room for uncertainty.
try not to be like that fan. this isn't a football team. i'm not a rival fan ****ging off your childhood heroes. there can be different opinions, there can be uncertainty, investors accept that.
As the local Cassandra, just thought I'd highlight some language in the RNS:
"The Board is pleased to report that these discussions, which remain ongoing, are at an advanced stage and have been constructive. The Board's expectation is that..."
Where the board "reports" they are stating undeniable facts. On Monday morning, the discussions were still ongoing because they had until the end of the day as a minimum (parties could have extended, we don't know about that). The discussions were "advanced" which means the same as "at a late stage" given that it was the last day of the 10 day minimum. Think of saying someone is advanced in years, you don't mean they've reached extra quality, just that they've had many years.
The language shifts then to "the board expects". This is where all the nice things come in like being of shared mind and close to good outcomes... but "expects" is not "reports". It means "would like to think". By switching to this phrasing the board is distancing themselves from the discussions and the outcome- the board does not know, the board is hopeful, the board is waiting to find out... because the board is not involved.
This isn't that unusual. Boards have negotiating teams so boards often do have to wait to see what outcome is achieved if any. Also, when going into arbitration it's common to say that you're hopeful and expecting a good outcome because it demonstrates good faith and all that stuff that gets you brownie points at arbitration.
Just flagging up because although a deal could be imminent, the RNS left the door open to alternatives like progress to arbitration.
Nobody knows at this stage except the Prem board who are not sharing. We all need to wait for the next RNS. Really should be any moment now IMO.
Good luck all, deals can come true, just be wary of rampy hype.
Marcus, the RNS says that although the new parts have been installed, Stark have not been able to produce the goods.
It does mention they will try further optimisation but at the time of the RNS only 2 days ago, the plant was not able to produce a sellable output even with the new fixes in place.
Also Marcus-
"With the money Canmax have invested, they will have made sure this is a definitive possibility too."
Suzhou invested something like 12M in the subscription to pay for the DFS (from memory). Canmax has not invested, it has prepayed 30M or thereabouts for product. If product isn't produced, they get that money back. So yes they think its a possibility but they haven't bet the house on it
Marcus-
"Spodumene concentrates produced to date contain in the region of 50% spodumene as determined by XRD analysis, but also up to 30% in mica minerals that cause a dilution of the spodumene grade. With improvements through ongoing optimisation and a refloating of concentrates produced to date, we expect that the plant will produce spodumene to SC6 grade as we have already demonstrated in our on-site laboratory."
This text from the RNS says that the plant currently can't match the lab results. It says that they hope they can replicate the lab results by refloating the output. But currently, even with the hydrosizer and uv filter, it needs repeated flotation to even be hopeful of matching lab results.
So I'm not assuming, I'm reading what it says
Volume seems to have dropped today compared with yesterday.
I think yesterday's volume was 400m+ shares.
Wondering if that might include the first tranche of the directors loan of shares to be sold to raise funds. Would have been a good day for it, it seems.
I don't think the FM clause negates any clauses like that if they exist. It just means you can't be found in default, not that you can go on to default in other ways.
So it's possible that they still have that right.
That would mean Med's hypothesis is less likely to hold. The dilution is likely to find a new funding partner, not to push out the old one
Its odd. There are 3 options really:
1) negotiations are still ongoing, both parties have extended the period.
2) negotiations completed, there is a new deal.
3) negotiations ended, we are heading to arbitration process.
In any case, Prem would be expected to inform investors via RNS.
If a deal with Canmax has not been struck on Monday (end of "friendly negotiation" period), when will Prem tell us?
When Canmax started the "friendly negotiations" period, they contacted Prem on the 17th July and then Prem told investors on 20th July via RNS.
So perhaps Prem is waiting a few days before updating investors, one way or another.
Right. Clearly I've wandered into the "attack the messenger, not the message" camp. I think I did say that I'd be shouted down.
I've simply tried to highlight what was in the RNS and that was largely just more uncertainty.
But OK, I give up.
GR is a crafty fox.
A deal is guaranteed now.
Production starts this month.
It's all in the RNS folks, just don't read the RNS folks.
DYOR, GLA.
The stuff they've produced so far isn't up to scratch despite the new UV sorter and hydrosizer being in place.
The RNS says they will be revising production projections imminently. That means the previous projection of 50% production this month is being changed, reduced or pushed back.