RE: Hmmm!!6 Nov 2024 11:35
Why is everyone overlooking the fundamentals? The market has spoken.
Management’s own forecasts show negative cash flow in an optimistic scenario for FY25 (see Arithmetic Test!). Despite this, the Calamonte continues to mislead investors, suggesting cash flow will be “largely neutral” next year – which is simply not the case.
Moreover, the supposed “positive” cash flow in FY24 is hardly an achievement; it’s merely a temporary boost from clearing old stock at deep discounts. They then conveniently “adjust” this out of gross margins and EBITDA (highly subjective excercise, to say the least)
Here’s the reality: this is a highly levered company, carrying debt at extortionate interest rates and burning through approximately £180 million annually in capex, interest and JV losses. Even under their best-case scenario, the EBITDA will not be enough to cover these.
ASOS is currently valued at around £600 million, this company is loss-making, forecasted to be cash-flow negative next year, and losing ground to competition. Not to mention a failed US expansion.
So someone please explain where's the upside? Why bother? So many other opportunities out there.
P.S. - Calamonte is a clown