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Rover, you may well be right. You have certainly been in this a long time.
However, in terms of Glencore this is all peanuts to them , back end of last year they paid 6.93 bn dollars on Tecks coal resources , in CASH !!
On the 12th Feb Glencore announced the closure of their Nickel mine in New Caledonia . In their statement they said they had invested 4 bn dollars in the mine without any profit !!
That virtually nails on that Hzm will be the replacement for New Cal .
That just leaves how they are going to do it , admin they risk a fight with another large miner , so not desirable. If they want to be fair they will include the 49 niners , but they don't have to , they can pick up Hzm for pocket. They have been buying back their shares hand over fist and on their balance at last year end they had 1.9 bn cash in hand or in the bank .
They are a 46 bn operation. Hzm is nothing to them ππ
As I said the controlling investors appear to be determined to to move on with it.
I also think they won't want it to go into admin as it looks really bad on all 3 as they are all 'experts' in miningπ
However, I do think at this price it would make sense for them to buy out the minority 49% , take it private and and finish the project between the 3. After all , all the heavy lifting has already been done, for them it would be the home straight.
Hopefully at the bottom of the commodity cycle, so the price should improve.
Only time will tell , but I don't think it will take long π€
Strow, I can't see it taking all to sort.
The 3 main investors have acted quite quickly so far , in getting their man , Karim in charge, lined up Gmining to complete the dig and provided interim finance . How long will 20 million dollars last , it's not going to last that long.
The main investors have acted quickly and decisively,in my opinion.
I can't see it taking more than a couple of months to sort out the financing.
777, certainly wouldn't bet against your senerio. Most likely outcome, but not the only way.
Depends on whether the 3 main investors can agree on something. If they can't then it's probably curtains.
It just should never have come to this. The costings should have been there or thereabouts.
Still, I wouldn't be surprised if someone picks up the pieces the costs to complete suddenly shrink dramatically. We will see π€
Ivor , totally agree they will not want to dilute themsevles.
However, they will want to look after themselves, not necessarily the 49%.
If the 3 can pick it up for 10 p then the banks will have to go along with that as the alternative is administration and they will lose everything.
To be fair with other companies they can put themselves up for sale to the highest bidder, but again that is not likely as it's not in their interests, as they will want to have the asset.
It's just beggars belief that the costs can change that much in such a short time, it's as if it has all been manipulated. If I was a PI i'd be absolutely livid with the 3 main investors. I am sure a lot of small investors will have invested their saving because of the fact that the main investors were experts in mining .
Problem is the 51% are holding all the cards . They don't hold 51% for no particular reason. They may be in this situation through previous management incompetence , but as you can see i am sceptical about the whole affair.
But we are where we are and I think they will look after themselves which may mean they will throw a bone to the dogs (the 49%) and move on with the prize. Only time will tell .
Placing incoming tomorrow π€π€ 0.5 or 0.55 or 0.6p π€π€
After all , it's only a hole in the ground , it's not even underground mining, and certainly not rocket science π I can't see how they could have got there costs wrong by 87% . Realisticly , it stinks π©
I don't agree with 777, I think their must be a lot of value in what they have done so .
In terms of Rover, I think it might turn out to be a stinker if say the 3 stooges, and I don't mean the BB pundits ,as refered to earlier , but the 3 mining co's. I see la mancha has 25% interest in Gmining π€π€, very interesting. They have put their own man in place Karim and now their own contractor and they are stringing the extra construction out until the price of nickel π, I wouldn't be suprised if they get it for a song , then the additional some how disappear π€π€
Still you would have doubled you money from here , might dip my toe in from here myself , seems a good punt .
This will be settled by the 3 main shareholders who own 51% of the shares. What ever they are happy with will be passed.
Now, what I can't get my head around is that the 3 main shareholders are all experts in mining , Glencore, la mancha, & Orion. It was declared on 24 the April last year that everything was on budget and on schedule, but then at the very beginning of Oct there was a massive extra amount of money required , since increased again to i believe 87% extra .
How the hell can that happen when you have 3 expert companies sitting watching what is happening. At least 2 are likely represented on the board given their high % of shares. As I say the 3 between them will decide the fate of the company. The easiest soon would be to offer 8-10p for the other 49% . They would pick up the company for just over 20 million. The other shareholders can hardly complain as they have more than doubled their money . The alternative might administration and I guess at least Glencore and or la mancha would pick up the pieces . However they may have to pay way over 20 million given the investment already put into the project . Time will tell , but it is worth thinking onπ€π€
Strow, I admire your optimism and I too are hoping that we are at the bottom of the commodity cycle, as I have some investments in PMG companies.
Having seen shares bomb many times over the years you rarely see them recover and if they do it can take many years . That is a fact that i know is a fact.
It is difficult to see the share price getting back to 20p before any announcement on financing solution, but
you live hope.
Only time will tell who turns out to be right, me or you. We willjust have to wait and see.
I am sure Karim is quite capable of finishing the mine and getting up and running. He should have a job for life if he wants it.
However, there is the small matter of 454 million dollars or in sterling 360 million.
The problem is a company worth 11 million sterling can not have debt of 360 million sterling .
If half the money was secured by secured loans then the other half of the money would have to come from the existing shareholders, that means 180 million sterling of new shares. Given the distressed situation I suspect any new investors will want shares at a significant discount to the current 4p, most likely at 1p at the very best 2p . You do the maths , but suffice to say the existing shareholders will be significantly diluted.
Can anyone come with a different senerio π€
It's only an update , they won't make an announcement until the formal results are announced.
If the market thought the divi was cancelled I don't think it would risen, it would have fallen
Crazy , really crazy price. Assuming the oil price stays stable or starts to increase in the second half of the year, then this should motor back to 20p at some point. Hopefully sooner. I don't think the management have done anything wrong, it's just market sentiment against commodities, it seems to be at it's lowest point at the moment π€
The only way the arguments and name calling are going to end is when the financing is actually announced.
For those holding shares , there appears nothing that will convince them that the share will not rise from here like a phoenix out the ashes and soar back to the 100's and no dilution will occur.
For those sitting on the sidelines , there may be a re-entry once the financing is announced , assuming it is still a public company. Only time will tell and I am sure we will all be around when that time comes. I won't have lost any money and equally I won't have gained any money at that precise time. But one thing it will be , is an 'interesting time(s)'. Bye for now.
Just simple maths will tell you the small investors will be shafted.
The current shares are worth about 11 million pounds . Karim said 454 mill dollars are needed to complete the project or 360 million pounds . So based on that alone current investors are likely to be diluted by a factor of about 30. Not 30%, but 30 times. Sad really , very sad. π
777, you're a 'hard man' , I wouldn't like to meet you in a dark alley.
But, but you are totally realistic about the forthcoming negotiations.
I noticed Karim mentioned all the big investors when talking about interested parties. That didn't include any reference to small investors. You could say why would he, but he knows he is about to be shafted with a big stick up his b*m. Today we are in a situation where interest rates for money are 5 % plus against 0% a couple of years ago. Their leverage in negotiations is next to nothing as investors know they can walk away and pick up the pieces from the administrator. They will want a lot in return to save the company in it's current state. Only time will tell but I wouldn't want to be holding the shares at the moment.
I am no paid troll.
Yes. It's a fantastic project but just don't fall in love with the share.
On the 19th Feb Karim said 'full financing solution will be developed in the coming weeks , but with no guarantee of success' . Says it all really , just be a bit more realistic about what you are in .
I see the truth hurts π€. I take it you were in at the start of the crash and are still there π€π€
Yes. the additional funding will hurt and will probably dilute you to 99% from 125p although there is the probability of a long slog back from here where you might get 10% back from your original investment. π© happens . Being a new investor I might get in when the funding party has ended and the dust has settled . 3-6 months π€