Member Info for Robbie11

CEO Hogan has only spent 20k of his own money on CEY shares since his appointment. For someone who is probably earning in excess of £2m a year this is a derisory amount. Today is an opportunity for him to show confidence in his plans for the future and make a meaningful investment of say £500,000. If he stands up at 1.30 and says he has made this commitment the shares will go north.

It`s not so much what will happen this year but in 22 when there will be exceptionally strong demand plus significant ticket price inflation. Due to the govt`s lax monetary policy inflation will return and this is the type of company that will generate substantial profit increases. Meanwhile the vaccines will also overcome Covid. There are not too many investors who have seen this all play out before.

The authorities are clearly pushing gold down again. The Dems are now on the way to be in control of Congress which will lead to a looser fiscal and monetary policy. Meanwhile bitcoin which the authorities cannot control is up materially.

Marmot,
Thanks for providing the rationale behind this morning`s extraordinary movement.

A derisory purchase by Hogan. His predecessor was on £2m+ per year and I doubt his pay packet is very different.

Osaka,
The company is currently grossly undervalued. The directors seem content to let the share price drift back below 20p at which point they pick up shares. The risk here is that of the company being taken private in which case the private investors will be deprived of the opportunity to participate in the highly significant upside potential which others will then benefit from.

I`m sorry but the idea that small shareholders like ourselves could in any way prevent a company like this being taken private in the 40s is somewhat far fetched. The directors seem content to let the share price slip back below 20p when they can pick up a few more. They, of course, would be major beneficiaries of the company being taken private. Currently 9 shareholders hold 47 per cent of the shares. 44p would be a take out at 100% premium and the insiders etc would have a much higher stake in the new entity. I`m afraid that rightly or wrongly this type of company is now deeply unfashionable and I see the risk that many of them could be taken private with the real financial benefits accruing to others rather than the long suffering and largely powerless private investor.

There`s been quite a high turnover of shares over the last year and institutional shareholders are so short termist that they would love to see their quarterly performance boosted by a take over. I am sorry to say a steal is on the cards and very much in the interests of management who would get a much higher equity stake as parties to taking the company private.

My view is that this company will be taken private before the year end with management being part of the buy out. The shares are trading on a prospect P/E of 2 and management are making no effort to get that message across. Just happy for the price to remain low so that they can hoover up a few more. Many will think a buy out in the 40s is a good deal but the company will have just been stolen from you.

The Conference call went very well with the price up 2p until they allowed some idiot PI got on and went on a rant about some report that was posted on the internet in 2015 which apparently criticized the management forecast the sp would fall to 32 cents. This morning`s release and the presentation on the company`s website are a pretty comprehensive analysis of where the company stands and the much improved prospects for the rest of the year and going forward beyond that. The initial rise the share price of 4p is a much better reflection of these prospects but I have taken the opportunity to add to my investment having previously reduced my position in the 160ps and 130ps.

I`m pleased with this. Better than expected.

A complete scam. Going to zero.

ROSI,
Sorry but I was just trying to help you out as you need to do your own numbers. You may or may not have got info from IR, but what a company has said is already in the price. Any successful investor has to be looking ahead. I`ve got a feeling that you`ve probably been in this share for quite a time and are feeling a little jaded. I bought my first share at 67p a few months ago and have built a significant holding now on which I am running a very substantial profit. The share has a lot further to run it will be over £2 by year end but that is only the beginning. The present price makes it easy pickings for a predator. This really is the best opportunity I`ve seen in a few years. Every more up or down by a dollar in the oil price is real not what this is all about. The cash flow is now very significantly positive for the company going forward.

ROSI,
You admitted yourself this morning that you had no idea what management meant by "current prices". My figures demonstrate that at a price of $65 per barrel there a gross cash flow (sales less cost of production) of nearly $1.5bn. Choose whatever figures you like for capex, interest and management expenses after those amounts have been deducted there is a very healthy positive cash flow.

ROSI,
Just put up a cash flow project and then we can see what you are talking about.

I`ve produced a cash flow statement. If you want to challenging put up your own.

ROSI,
Which of my figures do you disagree with?

ROS1,
Sorry but debt is being substantially reduced at $65 per barrel. If we take pmo`s annual production at 85,000 barrels a day and operating cost of $17 per barrel that results in an operating profit $1.489BN. After interest, management expenses, and capex etc. there will be substantial cash to repay debt. At a price of 122p PMO is a screaming buy.

ROS1,
Agree your values but today`s statement shows that 4m barrels have been hedged in the second half which is just over 25% of production and next year 3.8m barrels have been hedged which is about 13% of production. Over the next 18 months the company`s cash flow is likely to be comparable to our current market capitalization and that is why the share is a screaming buy.

Well I said not to expect too much from the trading update. I warned at the AGM that the company could easily be taken over but the management just don`t want to get it. The market cap of £950m is just far too low compared to the cash flow that we are going to see over the next 18 months. The good news is that IG are showing clients long of Brent at 69%. This is the best showing in months. Yesterday it was 59% of clients short. The traders made a great 5% profit yesterday shorting and have now gone long.