RE: Fed Likely to stay as planned14 Dec 2021 16:40
Kando,
Your analysis is broadly correct, but it is not just the Fed that is clinging to a false analysis the market has a whole is doing so. The consensus Wall Street forecast for inflation averages around 2 per cent although today`s inflation figures have hit 9 per cent. They too have to believe it is transitory caused by temporary supply constraints otherwise their forecasting models break down with dreadful consequences for asset price forecasts and in their own remuneration. Any meaningful tightening with have a long time scale before it takes effect. and therefore in my humble opinion high inflation will persist for some while. The consensus scenario also requires the gold price to remain suppressed so that it goes not give a signal that serious levels of inflation are on the way.