Member Info for RNSTranslator

Every commercial NDA has the ability for a party to release information that is required by the regulator of any market they are listed on.
RBD will need to RNS the results of the sale of Corallian because it’s a material event, so the terms of the sale and proceeds cannot be hidden. To suggest otherwise is nonsense.

“ These are without any unexpected announcements from Union Jack ..”
That’s why people are wary… shareholders having been unexpectedly kicked in the nuts previously.

I think the Rathlin issue is relatively quite simple.
Depending on the actual spend since 31/12 they probably have more than £4mm and less than £5mm.
Annual running costs are not high and seem to be about £300k, add in studies and its probably about £500k-600k.
Clearly this is insufficient to drill 66.6% of the costs of the next well, well as ongoing costs to the next drill in 23, which GP estimates to be 8-10mm and also maintain a going concern.
So they (Rathlin) will need to raise more cash.
Last time they raised cash in 2019, they raised in total £18.1mm according to their accounts.
Of this RBD provided £17mm (£1mm pre pay plus £16mm ) taking their equity to 59% from 37% by providing 94% of the new cash, it looks like the remainder 6% of the cash came from existing shareholders
When Rathlin raise more money the question is this: will RBD just provide 59% share of the cash, as per their equity , or will they need to provide more (like last time) so their equity share in Rathlin will increase.
It looks like Rathlin will need to raise maybe £7mm or so, of which RBD will need to invest £4.2mm to stay at 59%, or if they provide most of it they will own more of Rathlin/WN.
So the number RBD will need to inject would seem to be somewhere between £5 and £7 mm.
Add in £2mm for their own direct share and RBD probably need about £7-10mm for the next WN drill.
I would have thought that this would be more than adequately covered by the Victory sale...

“ Not one of you asked to see my informative reply from Mark Abbott that I received yesterday. ”
Quite simply, Nobody cares.

“ what I have achieved”
Which is what exactly…

“ So many big headed bloggers, oil industry, know it alls here.”
perhaps people with relevant oil industry experience know far more about this that someone with no knowledge..that’s pretty obvious to most people .. why do you see that as bad?

“ To be honest RNSTranslator...I listen to others, an not just David regarding my flowing thoughts at West Newton. ”

Interesting, who exactly ?
Do you perhaps have a special report on the Zechstein?
Perhaps you could point out a technically similar field to WN that has worked well. ?
We’re all ears….

No Heid you’re not a fool, just a naive amateur.
Talk of UJO buying more of Rathlin/WN is simply nonsense.
Rathlin will need to raise money before the next drilling campaign in 23, that’s obvious.
RBD will need to follow their money by injecting cash into Rathlin to maintain their equity, depending on the other investors putting money in will determine whether RBD have to do more than their equity share.
RBD will get the cash from the imminent sale of Victory. Many RBD shareholders think this is going to be 100’s of millions… rather than a few 10’s. Even Bramhill recognises that all the lab tests in the world cannot guarantee it’s going to flow, any rational analysis of the actual real world performance of this reservoir in this region, would tell you that.

“where the main variables have moved in favour of the Seller” Yes the gas price has risen which will mean a greater interest in the asset. However the variables that are fixed are the fact that the owner cannot develop the asset, either technically or financially. It cannot raise debt against it in the current market , and the equity markets are closed, and have been for a while esp for one asset non producers.
So at the end of the day the trump card the seller has is only that they hope to have more than one bidder. The trump card for the buyer is the seller does not have any other options, and if there’s no exclusivity to the non binding offer, they have the whip hand in setting the price and terms, regardless of any NPV calculation.

Ok Jack
I’ve said what I think it will sell for, how about you ?

Just spotted we’re at 90 odd posts… I presume the amateur oiler is back from her week in Maldon.
8 minute Direct flight from Saafend - classy.

"Basically rubbishing the NPV"
He wasn't rubbishing the NPV, just pointing out its not the same as the sales price of an undeveloped asset in a limited market.
This is classic aim small cap promotional stuff, its correct as a number, but it's not a guide to the real value now.
The NPV is a simple mathematical calculation based on an un risked DCF relying on an a set of presumed costs, volumes and dates, all of which are best estimates.
It doesn't address the inherant risks of, actual reservoir performance and deliverability, recoverable volumes, actual income costs and timeframes. It also assumes a cost of capital of 10%, which is way below the cost of capital for a speculative Aim company...
The reality is some investors think it's the current "value" and so unsurprisingly expectations are set in the 100's of millions and inevitably they are dissapoinbted and cannot understand why it was sold "cheaply".
I guess we'll see shortly...

A few usually means no less than 3 and no more than 5 in my book. As I’ve previously posted it depends on the presence, if any, of milestone kickers in the deal, which is the easiest way to Bridge the gas price expectation/reality conundrum.

“You do know that oil and gas majors forward their inventory don’t you?”
Majors usually don’t. , it’s called hedging, and nobody of any scale takes out long term hedges. Usually the smaller/mid caps hedge sufficient to protect their upcoming Capex budget. Investors would get pssd off if majors hedged their forward production as they lose exposure to commodity prices.

I guess we’ll see soon, but id be surprised if it went for more than a few $10’s mm based on similar small to modest UK gas Development projects being hawked around at the moment.

TAC, well we are in a bit of a lather this morning aren’t we.
“ are you still of the same opinion? “
Firstly you could share with us all when that was posted, the price of oil at the time , and the Wressle flow rate at the time. By the way those recoverable volumes are unchanged since that time as we’ve yet to see the GC report, as I consistently pointed out.
I have on a number of occasions recently made my view clear about what I expect the GC report to deliver and it’s impact on the shareprice - which was in the range 35-upper 40’s depending on the increase in volumes.
So yes I changed my view based on the change in circumstance…do you have a problem with that?
Or are you the type who only talks it up regardless of the facts, wanting to tell us how the upcoming news flow will get it to 60p.
Yes I know a lot about the industry and the financing of oil and gas companies, and yes I can spot a promotional bulli****ter when I see one posting. My opinion on that is unchanged.

So what you’re.saying is you think he’s going to focus on the current assets, but the formally stated strategy (rather than a podcast comment) means that he can choose to acquire other assets (or indeed another Royalty) if he choses to, and can then point to the existing formally stated strategy in the Annual Report if folks complain he “promised” otherwise.
Of course he’s never said one thing only to find out later that he’s done something different, as he?

“will not be venturing into any new projects….”
So why did he say this on page 13 of the recent Annual Report which came out on the 16th of May?
“Our strategy is the appraisal and exploitation of the assets currently owned. Simultaneous with this process, the Company’s management expects to continue to use its expertise and cash resources to acquire further licence interests in the UK over areas where there is a short lead time between the acquisition of the interest and either exploration drilling or initial production from any oil or gas fields that may be discovered.”

“"UJO buying a slice of Shell north Sea Floor"”
Shell have just moved offices in Aberdeen, so there may have been some carpet tiles going cheap from the old office. Gwynny could actually be right for once…

All prices are changeable until a deal is actually inked.
TF - As a seasoned M&A person surely you must have some clue as the what value they were seeking for the asset?
NPVs are a red herring - as I’m sure you know.

Thanks Jack
So in this scenario the Corallian shareholder gets cash for their shares plus a new B share which is limited to payments under the kickers, no voting etc etc .
From a tax perspective is value ascribed to the B share for (CGT) tax purposes?