Member Info for RiverOtter

JLEN isn't that exposed to short-term movements in the electricity price, since most of its generation revenues are secured under fixed price agreements. But longer term this will enable it to lock in higher prices. Anyway, I wanted to see how it stacked up against its peers, some analysis here: https://riverotter.co.uk/2022/04/20/electricity-prices-and-renewable-energy-yieldcos/ Any thoughts welcome.

Want to share some analysis on the recent increase in electricity prices and impact on share price of TRIG. The two don't always seem correlated, but from the renewable energy yieldco sector, TRIG seems better placed than most to benefit from exposure to short-term price movements: https://riverotter.co.uk/2022/04/20/electricity-prices-and-renewable-energy-yieldcos/ Thoughts welcome as always :-)

Seen a bit of discussion on here previously about the surge in electricity prices, so I wanted to get into this a bit more and take a look at the correlation with share prices for some of these renewable yieldcos. UKW appears well-placed to benefit from increases in power prices. Some analysis here: https://riverotter.co.uk/2022/04/20/electricity-prices-and-renewable-energy-yieldcos/ Thoughts always welcome.

Thanks for the comments from Yazo, Acuere & draft about my last post. I wanted to dig down into some revenue projections for Pod Point and notably the home charging market, since this is the segment I think will contribute the lion's share of revenues in the short term. I'm a little sceptical of Pod Point's claim that they hold 50-60% market share in the home charging market, from my calculations and beer mat analysis, it is more like 30%. But that still potentially means £55m in 2022 for home charging alone. Blog post here: https://riverotter.co.uk/2021/11/20/projected-revenues-for-pod-point-and-uk-ev-charging-market/ As always interested in any thoughts.

Analysis and research on the Pod Point IPO. Plus, a dig into the UK EV charging market and global competitors. As always, interested in any comments or thoughts. I have a number of takeaways after writing up this piece...notably, that the home charger market is really where the revenue is at in the short term, margins are the juicest. But I wonder whether workplace, destination and en-route charging are really likely to be where the important recurring revenues come from for the future. The charging market feels like a full blown land grab and it is intriguing to see oil multinationals, electricity utilities and car manufacturers all competing to deliver those that kWh to your Tesla, or slightly more modest Nissan Leaf! Compared to other listed rivals, Pod Point looks well-priced, as valuations stateside have already exploded.

https://riverotter.co.uk/2021/09/12/pod-point-ipo-ev-market-and-fully-charged-players/

I've already sold out of this, as I've chronicled previously, but can't help but follow these updates to see how this plays out.

AAA's list of Audioboom shareholders supporting their bid is very intriguing. It looks like Nick Candy has had his beautiful wife Holly Valence buying Audioboom shares. Notably absent from the supporting shareholder list are Herald & Edge Performance. Given that the board haven't thrown their weight behind this, I also find it interesting that Tobin's mate Jito Athwal, who holds > 2% isn't jumping on the A-team bandwagon. The board sounds pretty sanguine, no real progress apart from delays, re-iterates the deadline.

I personally hopes this falls through, since that might tempt me to buy back in. But as I've written about on my blog, who knows what's going on?!? I wouldn't be surprised if this were really just one big pantomime, with so many interconnected people on the roster at Audioboom & AAA it's just impossible to really know the real intentions at play, especially when you're a private investor sitting on the sidelines. Good luck Boom holders.

Triton have long been a shareholder of Audioboom since they received shares when the previous reverse takeover failed. Triton is owned by E.W. Scripps.

Hello fellow Boomers,

I've been mulling what to do about my Audioboom shareholding for a few weeks now, and didn't feel comfortable with the AAA bid, so have sold out.

Wanted to share my research and thoughts...

https://riverotter.co.uk/2021/08/13/audioboom-and-the-a-team/

Thanks,

River Otter

Some research on Blue Star following their recent half year results. I sold out of the company a little while back and put my money indirectly into Guild eSports.

There are several concerns I have about the portfolio companies, notably the £0.7m that was put into five eSports companies, four of which appear to be doing nothing. Dynasty actually does seem to be building a real platform, although where SatoshiPay is going, I'm not quite sure.

A bit of a deep dive research note...

Blue Star Capital shining brightly?
https://riverotter.co.uk/2021/07/06/blue-star-capital-shining-brightly/

Always interested in thoughts, comments, etc

iHeartMedia's purchase of Triton Digital could mean it now has a 1.04% shareholding of Audioboom

https://riverotter.co.uk/2021/02/24/cutting-audioboom-holding/

Nick Candy sells £6.75m stake in Audioboom to Robert Bonnier’s AAQUA
https://riverotter.co.uk/2021/02/16/nick-candy-sells-6-75m-stake-in-audioboom-to-robert-bonniers-aaqua/

NAV per share at 0.209 by my calculation.

Thanks for your comments Boombangabang. It was an error, but that's OK if you don't believe me. You think that this was some kind of attempt to discredit Candy or Audioboom. Not at all, it was an honest mistake, reading through RNS filings goggle-eyed. As you'll have noticed, I do still have some faith in Audioboom, but my belief that the company may turn good is stretched.

It isn't intended to sound Sherlock Holmes! But Dr Watson, I don't think you can compare an investor holding Apple, Spotify, Sony and Google, to a small group of interconnected investors to small cap, AIM-listed, often tech-related companies.

Why do you say there's still life in the sales process? What evidence do you have of that?

As for comparing sales and earnings - how would you suggest that's done? There's scant public information available. Megaphone is owned by Graham Holdings, who had this to say in Q3...
"Megaphone’s revenues increased significantly in the first nine months of 2020 ... Megaphone reported operating losses in the third quarter and first nine months of 2020; however, such losses were down significantly from the prior year."

Much like Audioboom, I guess?

Where are you getting your figures for Audioboom's total fundraising over the past six years?

Some thoughts about the valuation for the Codemasters deal - it doesn't seem totally unreasonable, but other British video game peers are more richly valued. The incentive to management and staff is likely to act as considerable motivation to get a deal through, with almost £6m on offer...

https://riverotter.co.uk/2020/11/13/gta-publisher-take-two-gets-codemasters-for-a-steal/

PS I think the Daily Mail are quoting the directors current shareholding, not their incentive payments.
PSS Threadneedle are playing this acquisition deal with positions on both sides of the Atlantic.

Yes PoeBardem, bit of ****-up! I've corrected and scrubbed the post. I skipped over the "Reason for the notification" in the form, apologies to anybody I led down the garden path. Honest mistake. Yes, indeed a dilution to Candy's holdings due to Antonioni's investment.

And Nick Candy just sold about £0.75m of his majority shareholding in Audioboom
https://riverotter.co.uk/2020/11/12/nick-candy-sold-0-75m-of-audioboom-shares/

Thanks for the comments PoeBardem/MaverickInvestor.

Sorry, I don't agree about the reason for the failed sale being the difference between the public price and fair exit price. We just don't know enough about what went on behind the scenes to make that assumation.

MaverickInvestor - yes, totally agree! It only seems a matter of cost-cutting to bring this company into profitability.

Audioboom calls directory enquiries and orders a Singapore Sling - some research on Peter Antonioni, Audioboom's failed sales process and further dilution...https://riverotter.co.uk/2020/11/11/audiobooms-failed-sale-and-singapore-sling/

Few thoughts on the proposed acquisition of various tailings projects by Pan African Resources. It appears the environmental liabilities could be a key factor in the overall cost of getting Mintails up and running, a few thoughts: https://riverotter.co.uk/2020/11/09/more-than-meets-the-eye-to-pan-african-resources-acquisition-of-mintails/

Audioboom strikes a strategic partnership with Rogers Media, who in recent years bought out a podcast production company and launched its own podcast network. However, this isn't Audioboom's first strategic partnership. And news of new podcasts led by US reality television personalities, some with quite a considerable social media following. Some brief thoughts here...
https://riverotter.co.uk/2020/10/07/round-up-codemasters-h1-2021-revenues-audioboom-in-canada-and-renewable-energy-yieldcos/#audioboom