Member Info for rivaldo

Gresham House continue their buying spree - they've bought over another 12m shares, and now have 22.54% of INSE, or 219.8m shares:

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/inspired-plc--inse-/rns/holding-s--in-company/202204060858404562H/

News yesterday of more work building another huge film studio, this time at Shinfield Studios near Reading:

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-60983700

"UK Hollywood film studio near Reading enters next construction phase
Published 19 hours ago

Work has begun on another five sound stages at a new state-of-the-art film and TV studio complex.

Once completed Shinfield Studios will comprise 18 sound stages, creating an 85,000 sq m (914,932 sq ft) media hub.

The film and TV studios at Thames Valley Science Park, near Reading, is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2024.

The film company said four sound stages have already been built, following accelerated planning permission.....

....The company, part of Blackhall Global Partners, previously said it expects the hub to generate around £600m a year for the UK economy."

Online looks very good indeed. I can buy just a maximum 800 shares at 30p! Whereas I can aell 35,000 at a big premium to the bid at 28.7p.

This news is from March 2nd, not picked up before - CLX working with Colt and Cisco in Paris on a "private 5G pilot", shaping "the Future of Distributed Edge".

It sounds like CLX are at the cutting edge here:

Https://www.calnexsol.com/en/article-display/125-timing-and-sync/1734-innovating-to-shape-the-future-of-distributed-edge

"Innovating to Shape the Future of Distributed Edge

Colt delivers ground-breaking private 5G pilot in Paris supported by Cisco and Calnex.

Innovation is at the heart of Colt’s strategy and we’re continually testing the latest technologies to meet the future needs of our customers. As part of our 5G and Edge incubation program we’ve been working with partners including Cisco and Calnex on a private 5G pilot in Paris.

This explored a range of new concepts, including a distributed Edge platform and network synchronisation, both enabled on the >Colt IQ Network. Our goal was to provide valuable use cases, especially for digital transformation and Smart City concepts, and validate them in a real user environment.

As part of Colt’s 5G and Edge incubation program, we have been working with partners including Cisco and Calnex on a private 5G pilot in Paris to trial a range of new concepts, including a distributed Edge platform and network synchronisation, both enabled on the Colt IQ Network. This was intended to provide valuable use cases, especially for digital transformation and Smart City concepts, and validate them in a real user environment.

In a world where everything is connected and every user will have the opportunity to enjoy a highly personalised experience from home or at the office with the hybrid model, 5G offers massive potential to revolutionise both business and consumer markets.

As a result, many sectors with high bandwidth requirements for business-critical services, including manufacturing, R&D, and broadcasting, are looking at how private 5G can help deliver the promised benefits.

The real estate sector is also assessing private 5G, and our pilot examined the performance of indoor 5G connectivity and opportunities related to smart offices and consolidated private building networks.

For developers and real estate companies, connectivity presents an ever-present challenge – particularly for their development pipelines, where the expectation is that they will be at ‘state of the art’ upon delivery, which may be several years down the line.

The pilot represents an important step forward in further understanding the benefits 5G for business verticals like real estate and how to deliver them. It also highlights the importance of working closely with trusted partners, which we see as a critical element in delivering services in the future.

etc"

Yep, good to hear about the strong Q1 trading and likely Shoreham news flow coming soon.

Cenkos's updated research this morning doesn't really add much of note, with 2022 etc forecasts presumably waiting on the prelims, but FYI here's their summary anyway:

"2021 was a pivotal year for Getech, as the Company repositioned its business model and strategy to support the Energy Transition – positioning the Company ideally to support an expansion in capital spending across the energy sector. The early signs of this expansion can be seen in today’s trading update, with FY21E revenue increasing 20% YoY to £4.3m and Getech’s orderbook increasing 25% to £3.3m at YE21.

This strong growth has continued into 2022, Getech having announced new contract wins, a strategic green hydrogen agreement with the Highland Council and key staff appointments. We anticipate that this growth and momentum will continue as energy investment soars, driven by both an increased focus on security of energy supply and the transition to net zero."

Continued good drilling results from CAPD's drilling programme for Hummingbird in Guinea announced this morning.

Notably, the first gold pour is expected for Q2'23, so CAPD must be in prime position to pick up long-term production contracts here:

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/hummingbird-res.--hum-/rns/kouroussa-guinea-update/202204060700063929H/

SUR are forecast to make 8.2p EPS to 30th September, and they also have a £17m or so and rising cash pile against the £133m m/cap.

I'm very happy to hold and top up when appropriate given an ex-cash P/E of only around 8 or 9 and good growth prospects.

The interims are coming soon (next month) - it's worth remembering the strong outlook from the prelims:

"We have started FY22 strongly, continuing the momentum from FY21 and we believe the future outlook for our businesses remains strong. This is underpinned by high levels of long-term contracts and frameworks for which we have continued to see high appointment levels. We are also witnessing an ongoing trend towards regulatory services. Our client base, largely of local authorities and housing associations, provides us continuity moving forward with clients whom we regard as blue chip."

SYS were forecast to make 3.3p EPS for the year just ended 31st March.

On 22nd November SYS confirmed:

"The Board remains confident that Adjusted EBITDA for the current financial year will be in line with its expectations"

Hopefully the trading update will follow pronto - tomorrow?. At which point I'd assume the newly appointed Zeus Capital will bring out forecasts incorporating the new acquisition (there wasn't anything out earlier from Zeus).

SYS could look very cheap indeed at these levels, particularly for a cyber-security specialist, if all goes well.

Excellent news hidden away in yesterday's blandly titled late RNS:

"The Directors are also pleased to confirm that the Company continues to trade at least at or above the high-end of current analyst expectations."

We now know the next trading update is coming soon on April 25th, so given the above I'm looking forward to it.

CNIC remain hugely undervalued imho:

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/centralnic-group-plc--cnic-/rns/annual-report-2021-and-notice-of-q1-update-and-agm/202204041549411999H/

CAPD's investee company Arrow Minerals were up 11% overnight to AU$0.005 on good news from its Vranso project, with gold targets confirmed:

Https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/company/amd

CAPD have certainly been the drilling contractor for Arrow elsewhere in Burkina Faso, so with drill testing to begin after sampling completion CAPD should as a prime investor be first in the queue to win the contract.

Very good news. Quite transformational, and immediately earnings-enhancing.

And all paid for without dilution - Santander evidently have great faith in SYS and its management in significantly increasing the available facilities. Which would suggest that they've been given sight of the latest management accounts? Perhaps a clue as to that forthcoming trading update.

Truststream has high recurring revenues, and there's lots of cross-selling opportunities, synergies etc. Plus of course the huge and growing cyber-security market.

There's much to like about today's news.

A week ago NTQ posted this video showing how SABER is a "step change in directional drilling", including geothermal:

Https://www.linkedin.com/company/enteq-technologies/posts/?feedView=all

Good to see the share price move back up again after a 25k buy, following two early sells of 40k first thing.

In addition, Numis have a 900p target now and conclude as follows:

"RENEW (ADD 900p). Trading update.

First half trading was in line with management’s expectations and the Board remains confident in prospects for the full year. The order book has remained in line with the AGM position (up 10% YoY to £742m), underpinned by long-term framework positions. The business continues to successfully navigate industry-wide material shortages and inflationary challenge effectively, without material impact on trading. Net debt and cash generation are also in line with expectations, and we forecast pre-IFRS 16 net cash of c.£8m at Sep-22E.

We believe the shares have unjustly underperformed, down 18% over the past 3 months, and this update reaffirms the attractive defensive attributes of the business. The shares trade on a FY22E EV/EBIT of 9.9x and a P/E of 12.6x."

Zeus's research note this morning concludes thus, with a 110p valuation:

"Our valuation is 110p, offering good potential upside

We value the Group using a 10-year DCF of post capex net operating cash flows. Our analysis is updated for the recent OEM 8 contract. Our calculation of WACC is 8% for the Group using a riskfree rate of 2.5%, equity risk premium of 6% and a blended industrials, technology, and automotive sector beta of 1x. Our terminal growth factor is 2.5%. That said, potential risks remain on the path to achieving improved earnings, hence, we have applied a higher discount rate (vs. WACC) to price this execution risk. We apply a discount rate of 10%, this results in a valuation of 110p. "

Apparently ADF have just been tipped this morning by Michael Taylor in his "Buy the breakout" email - he writes for the IC and also has his own "Shifting Shares" web site and Twitter, i.e:

Https://twitter.com/shiftingshares?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Michael Taylor writes for the IC, and has his own Shifting Shares web site and monthly newsletter. Just noticed that his March newsletter had DKL as one of its three stock ideas FYI:

Https://www.shiftingshares.com/best-uk-stocks-to-buy/

"Dekel Agrivision (DKL)

Dekel Agrivision has featured in Buy The Breakout before. But the buy case has now materially changed and the stock is right below resistance.

Therefore, I’m including it again so it’s on your radar.

I’m long this stock having bought last week, and the reason for this trade is simple.

CPO prices.

These are pushing close to €1,800 – double Arden’s forecast for the year of €900.

With prices starting at €1,242 in the year my belief is that Dekel Agrivision is on track to beat these forecasts comfortably.

It’s true that the international CPO price is not the price that DKL gets.

However, the drivers for palm oil are clear.

The lack of sunflower oil supply from Ukraine has sent buyers to panic buying palm oil instead.

And even though the CPO market is almost 4x bigger than the ~$18.5 bn a year sunflower market – the key is that 75% of the world’s supply comes from Ukraine.

That means there is now a huge deficit in the market.

This is Economics 101.

Supply and demand.

When supply tightens, demand must increase.

Dekel is already trading on an expected EV/EBITDA of 4.8.

It’s growing, and the chart is now backtesting a breakout.

Basically, we’ve had a year of consolidation for the placing to digest.

Anyone who took the placing and wanted to sell has had plenty of time to do so.

Plus, there was a record volume day last week and the number of shares swapping hands is still high.

I am long and hopeful we see a breakout and a trend begin.

I could be wrong, but with the stock being cheap and there now being a material driver I think the risk/reward strongly favours the upside."

Firefinch rose almost another 6% overnight, to new highs at AU$1.25.....

Https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/company/ffx

On further investigation it seems CAPD's options in Firefinch which I mentioned in my earlier post have been subsumed into their new total holding of 18.95m shares, so that's the total extent of their holding in Firefinch, i.e now worth around £13.5m against CAPD's total £198m m/cap - let alone the rest of CAPD's investment portfolio, which in total was worth $60.2m at the last year end.

Results are out. Historic financials are largely irrelevant as SCE transitions to profitability, except to confirm that SCE retains a very satisfactory cash pile sufficient for its growth plans.

Great to see everything else now progressing nicely, but the news that's pleased me the most is the progress at last with OEM3's environmental test:

"The customer has a unique and destructive environmental test that has challenged the Company for the last 5 years. It is encouraging to report that, in the year the Company believes it has now designed a suitable product which meets all OEM 3's requirements. The test results have been supplied to the customer for review and confirmation of product suitability. With this work complete no further testing is planned."

Assumong the test results pass muster, progress here would be huge.

Shore Capital have a 930p valuation per their post-AGM research update, so lots of upside.

And "scope for upgrades" too

Extracts:

"Forecasts

We expect to leave our forecasts unchanged but see scope for upgrades. Renew has consistently had a very high level of visibility with c70% of current year forecasts sales usually in the order book. This has helped the group meet or beat consensus profit forecasts in every year since the group came into its current form in 2006."

"Valuation and recommendation

We believe Renew represents a good opportunity for investors seeking to benefit from the UK Government's commitment to invest £640bn in infrastructure from 2020 until 2025."

"We maintain our BUY recommendation and 930p DCF-based fair value (36% upside). The shares have fallen 18% YTD after a very strong two-year run, presenting an attractive entry point. As of yesterday's closing price, the shares trade on 12.5x our FY22F EPS forecast and 8.4x on an EV/EBITDA basis."

Useful comment from Malcolm Graham-Wood today:

Https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/04/oil-price-petrofac-rockhopper-getech-and-finally/

"I asked Jonathan Copus the CEO of Getech how the system actually delivers for the company for a simpleton like myself, here is his answer which i found most interesting.

‘Modular access via our Maptium platform allows geothermal, critical minerals, carbon/energy storage customers to purchase and use specific data, knowledge, and analytics – which otherwise they could only access through our global petroleum products. This helps us broaden our customer base, further expanding our reach into new energy transition markets’."