Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
You are right Eodfire, we are not in the US, but the phrase 'When the US sneezes, the World catches a cold' holds water and if we see market issues in the US, do not expect the UK, EU etc to be unaffected. Anyway don't worry unduly I am just speculating on the future.
You are quite correct the official definition of a Bear is 20%+ decline etc. - anyway my throwaway comment about a Bear market was merely speculation as to why weak shares like Interserve, Talk Talk, Debenhams, Countrywide Carpetright, DFS, etc etc are all cratering, that the Macro environment is clearly deteriorating and early indicators are flashing red - always hard to be sure but the best predictor in modern time is the inverted US bond yield curve, which has historically predicted 100% of all modern day recessions ! Who knows, after all the future is not ours to see Que Sera Sera
Or - 'Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre'
Anyway I am sure WB would have his own view of the shambles which is Interserve -
Just to be a contrarian for a moment, the dip may not just be specific to Interserve but instead part of an asset allocation away from debt ridden companies into safer stocks as the market rolls over and we look at a potential start of a Bear Market. Other challenged companies are being marked down for similar reasons !!
I saw this as pseudo good news in that maybe Tang has a reason to boost the share price rather than just clip the salary and bonus - Use company cash to buy back shares and get the price 20-30% discount to NAV would be a good start !
Likely to release results early October. Historically they have released a trading statement in mid August
Looks like the market was matching up half a bar. Nothing to stress about !
Surely not the results of the Meeting ! Thin volume - Any thoughts.
DEMPS fair point, I don't fear a capital raise here either, it certainly worked well for shareholders at Capita, if it puts the bears on the back foot and stop the speculation!
I think the whole market's nervous on this one DEMPS not just you - we must be close to any potential trading update pre close which is no doubt worrying potential buyers - The company needs to show it can win significant contracts without the need to refinance, as clearly the parliamentary notes showed that they are viewed as a risk which may go against them, DW and BOD no doubt acutely aware!
Everything has a base price - PFG looks way underpriced in my view
Personally I think the communications from Debbie and her team have been reasonable - They have made announcements about problems in a timely manner and kept shareholders informed. If there is further negative news on the way I would have thought it would be post half year end once the board have got the full figures in front of them - if not I would think the SP will start to look very interesting ! The big risk holding this SP back in my view is further EfW damage but we may well be at the nadir - That's what makes this share so interesting .
I would agree as regards upside. This company has been transitioning itself to comply with IFRS 15 - and it has been a long drawn out affair, investors will be rewarded in time I expect the H1 figures to be lousy, possibly a loss, but hints around stabilisation currently and a positive view for H2 would suggest to be the worst is behind us. IF H2 runs at 4p EPS I genuinely believe we could see 70p in 12 months. Brokers are absent with their view at the moment due to the uncertainty but I think that provides a great entry point before they start pumping out their research - I could see them coming back at around 80-100p once H1 figs are out. 2021 numbers are somewhat bullish and would imply a share price in the stratasphere but even if they had a reasonable stab at increasing customer numbers their share price would be north of £1 in 2021 in my opinion ! I tend to view an investment with a minimum timescale of 3 years to get traction which may be a little long for some however.
Lets hope the BOD realised something before this.
I agree sentiment is poor but I would say Hibiscus Petroleum is a gem in the portfolio, GCM may do something too although will need cash. Unquoted's offer potential but in essence Polo is too small to provide the necessary liquidity. It needs to be more active and turn over assets.
Me too - These incubator stocks are frustrating. If capital markets were efficient you could deploy �22m buying this at 7p , hedge the Hibiscus stock, sack the board , delist sell off the remaining quoted stock and walk away with approx �10m+ after all costs and still have some very interesting unquoted bits for nothing (rough calcs) - Here's hoping !
I understand that the IT side of the business is where the jewels in the valuations are and likely to be the core of what remains due to skill levels and pricing power. Hopefully the low margin businesses are spun off and the company is priced as a growth share once again - as you say you can never be sure whether we have seen the bottom until it's behind us but seems to be well bid at the mo.
I look at this in the same way I did PFG, a quality turnaround share! This in my view is one of around half a dozen great opportunities in the UK market. A sector hugely beaten down thanks to a struggling under resourced companies. Ridiculously cheap future earnings. A share price which does not factor in �670m net new money. Of course there will be 1668m shares instead of 667m but should earnings rebound to 20p by 2020 and it be back on the dividend list, there is no way this share is trading at 120p I would hazard a guess at �3 may be more. That is upside worth backing IMHO.
This is an interesting share I have watched from the sidelines for 6 months now - I could have made a bit, I could have lost a bit but I keep on waiting ! The Bull argument as I see it hinges on a recovery in margins, limited fall out from EfW, disposal of assets at non dilutive prices and no discounted rights issue ! The Bear argument as I see it hinges on little recovery in the underlying earnings position, further EfW pain, stuttering disposals and a deep discounted rights issue. Time will tell. Having read the Liberum research, I do wonder what value is left for shareholders. What they missed out in their lengthy article in my view is that the real value here is in the debt refinancing - Bank loans at 50p in the � could generate handsome returns should a refinancing be forced. Coupons of circa 11% plus principle appreciation reminds me of buying debt in '09. I think that is where the real money is in this share - unfortunately not available to small equity investors. I do however think equity holders have a chance should they take up/wait for the DD rights issue. Just my view!
Interesting thought - A big (forced) seller and another institution interested at buying at 30p keeping the stock locked at this level - Await RNS with interest. The shareholder meeting may be worth going to - see who turns up !