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My opinion on the potential takeover for what it is worth is that there isn't anything wrong with the company per se but that Tech companies which need investment longer term are not best suited ( at this stage of development) to public listing and are probably better suited to Private equity with less public scrutiny on the accounts/investment etc. I would expect the company and key directors to remain, to build up and grow the proposition and in 3-5 years time see the company relist as part of the exit strategy on to theequity market , maybe on NASDAQ at a considerable multiple to where we are now - Accesso Directors will do exceedingly well as will P/E but I am not holding out for much north of £12 for myself as after all most parties will be incentivised to get this done as cheaply as possible I am afraid to say - but we shall see !
This is all a little vague Ian’t It! One would expect the’feedback’ means inviting bids but the statement doesn’t make that clear. Why doesn’t the bod lay out a clear timetable for clear action. Is it any wonder the stock price has skidded lower. Any buyer would surely test the market and sell a few lines and depress the buyout price. If the bod is to stay on no doubt their incentive package from the buyer will more than compensate the measly purchases they made a few months ago. If the exit rice is above £14 I will be majorly surprised . Starting to think £12 is more likely
Why indeed - Technicals look great - Flag to £11.50 and probably won't stop there.
I struggle with Peel Hunt having Arrow Global at £2 PT and a sell rating. The management are altering course for Arrow, instead of using Proprietory capital they are attracting 3rd party capital and using their extensive expertise to invest. It is a fantastic strategic move for so many reasons - capital light, fund management style business and if they hit their target of £100bn funds at 20bps net margin this could be conseratively priced at £12 per share looking at FM peers - you could be even more bullish if you were to look at DFM of fund house ratings - £2 is nuts !!
Agree - looks very promising but could do with clarification on this from Shaun Thaxter as to the position - Sometime they RNS around 11.30-12.00 in line with US market pre opening results so maybe more clarification to come
But looks better than I hoped at present !
I think we will agree to disagree - and citing possible recession is a very good reason to avoid sub prime lending as every previous recession has proved - Such stocks perform much worse than the market in Bear markets.
It is not Vanquis growth rates that worries me it is bad debts and contagion that worries me about this one
I'm not concerned for my money as I am out and safe
You seem very positive on this so I hope you are right for your sake.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock above £5 in the near term but I sold out well over £6 when the offer was first announced and have no desire to gamble on this share at the moment. The problems Provident face are numerous - They can't run a successful Consumer credit business online, they have a Car loan business which is vulnerable to recession and still hasn't overcome regulatory scrutiny and by far the most important part, Vanquis is slowing down due to massive competition from New Day and the Aqua credit card. Vanquis has never been through a recession and given that it's struggling to grow at what is possibly the peak of the market, the future looks worrying for the group. Also Woodford is likely to be a forced seller of so much stock, which leads me to conclude that as soon as the Private investors have been suckered in this morning the Hedgies will blow them to pieces like chaff in the wind - Be very wary IMO
Happy with this - NSF is a simple business with growth potential and I look forward to them growing as an independent company once more - My worry as an NSF shareholder was that the Vanquis business would have dragged down the company. Vanquis is already seeing problem debts mounting and has significant competiton coming in form New Day with the Aqua card. Provident has been around 100 years but has never been through a recession with Vanquis - my view is that it would have caused the whole group to do bust - today I am a happy NSF shareholder... Onward and upward.
As i've said before, if you just accept the offer you get 8.88 nsf shares for each share whereas if you sell PFG and buy NSF you will get more than 8.88 shares AND qualify for NSF's 2p final divi as far as I can see - I did this when PFG was well north of £6 but there is still Arbitrage opportunity left for those willing to take the risk that this happens DYOR
It looks like the supertanker is slowly turning - Schroder Recovery bought these recently - they are a shrewd team. If Capita can continue to offload non core businesses at significantly higher multiples than the current business is trading on, then a rerating must be well overdue. I think ti BoD are doing a good job here
I agree - This is a very interesting time for this share. With 11.4% short, that is a huge amount to buy back in a thinly traded market. The short inspired research was misguided and recent results highlighted that this is a well run company producing excellent results on a low rating. I reckon the shorts have large buy back orders being worked by the brokers and there just isn't the stock available - A significant bear squeeze could be coming to Arrow Global soon and as more companies announce they are reducing their short position that should push the price higher and force more to close .....an so on !
At the current price of 601p they stand at a 60p premium to the current offer of 61p x 8.88. That said, should you believe the bid is going ahead then sell now and buy equivalent nsf holding and you'll scoop up the cash balance or buy more nsf shares. Another positive would be you'd qualify for the nsf final divi expected to be. 1.8p or thereabouts. Had a look at some comments relating to other possible bidders, cinven, cvc, morses amigo, etc but none of these look credible. A week ago we werere looking at sub £5 with analysts writing this down to £4.30 on deteriorating bad debts from vanquis and now the market is looking for a white knight. The bod have run this company poorly, the only reason they haven't accepted the t/o is they haven't got their golden parachutes on yet - give it 2 weeks and they will have finalised their retirement packages and can accept the pain of being kicked out!!!
Looks as though a large buy is being executed in the background, plenty of sells going through and a rising bid. Somebody willing to buy in and pick up stock from weak hands ! GLA
Is my view - The fact that they are still talking must suggest that the accounting issues are not as big as the Hedgies would pretend or else Bain and Apollo would have pulled out - Trading statement was positive and as a stand alone business could push past £9 by Y/E so win win -
CEO of Vanquis Bank being linked to Shawbrook CEO role - Vanquis is a major part but is the growth all down to the CEO, nope, and the replacement will no doubt bring fresh impetus to momentum - doubt it is the upcoming Q3s leaking out!
Is everything (80% of NAV) everthing else GCM etc etc is nothing more than a distraction, blankerty blank cheque book and pen, Crackerjack pencil. At present worth over 10p per Polo share and JPM have just issued research saying Hibiscus is in a great position to push higher with no debt and great drilling. At $80 a barrel and more HIBI is a great prospect - Even P'tang Yang Kipperbang can't fluff this one - Awaiting upward rerating before arbitraged higher.
Most Analysts have been Under Review or N/A for the past 12 months at last a Broker who is sticking their neck out on the price target but nothing new in content...
Utilitywise plc | Negative numbers for 2H18 UTW-AIM 28p | Buy | Target Price: 100p
Canaccord Genuity Limited (UK) |
Utilitywise has announced some fairly negative numbers for its 2H18 (FY ends July), due largely to the knock-on impacts of the stable-cleaning exercise it did in 2017. Critically new auditors, PwC, are still reviewing revenue recognition in light of IFRS15 with a "further update in due course." Positive is that net debt has stabilised and is falling slightly
I wouldn't be surprised if the next revision on revenue recognition is 'net positive' now the share options are in place - The cynic in me !!