Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The city is a pack of wolves and big pharma isnt stupid either. Debt is now harder to come by as are the usual lines of investment, through incompetence or naivety the board have left Sar in a vulnerable position financially and the share prices is open to easy manipulation. So I wouldn't be surprised if this is driven by a potential suitor. Why pay billions when you can short the life out of it and get it for pennies instead of pounds. It happens every single day and thats Rule 1 of the playbook, chop a leg out before you make an approach and two if you can. Just hoping we dont end up like Monty Pythons black knight.
Again not difficult Robinhood. Set the bar low at 500k or enough to cover the completion of the first trials, with a cap at 3m. Then you’re not embarrassed if you come in at 800k or 1.2m if it’s over subscribed. That word alone would be positive and buy the company more time, could also throw in a future option for those that subscribe for the placing.
Not difficult is it, six month deferral of salaries and approach the present investor base for capital. I’m sure amongst the Pi’s we could raise 300k or 500k without breaking a sweat. I’d stick more in if there was clear plan put forward. No need to go the whole hog, just initiate a raise as each milestone is passed.
Good news it’s started which was of course expected, but they still need some serious help writing these RNS, just terribly written, every time they manage to turn a win into a loss. So frustrating and I expect it may even fall today as money moves out looking for a quicker return. I’ve been here 14 years so I guess another year wont matter to me, but for those that are underwater a little help from the board to raise sentiment would have been nice. Also helps to have a higher share price when it comes to the next raise. On another note my condolences to Thoths family. The bloke was a brilliant contributor to this board and I wish his family all the best at this sad time.
Great to see things finally moving. Regards an exit I am praying for a buy out. Easy enough to note down the recent activity in the space with some big numbers but even some light digging shows a 2bn headline figure might only be a 50m upfront payment. That would be hard to stomach after 14 years of waiting and wont realise the full value for shareholders for another 3-4-5 years and in that time a lot can happen. Certainly give a bump in the share price but nothing near what many would hope for and then comes the quandary of when do you get out. Really hope someone comes in and takes it lock stock and barrel and removes that possibility. I'd take the 1.9bn Sierra deal everyday of the week. Tim and co are getting on a bit. I hope they are of the same mind.
You missed the bottom line.
"We are pleased to have clarity on SRA737 and to be able to plan the next steps for SRA 737 together with CPF. We continue to believe that SRA737 has great potential for the treatment of cancer, particularly in combination settings."
This time next year Rodders....
All as expected, just have to sit back and wait. Would have been nice to have thrown in we continue to speak and engage with interested parties just to add a little excitement. I'm sure they could have squeezed that in there, unless of course there aren't any!
Charts just give an indication, not to be wholly relied upon by any means. Fundamentals will always override especially in stocks such as this. This has shown strong resistance though at expected support lines. The big barrier we need to get past on the charts is around 2.30, then its clear to 3.50.
Good news but dropped the ball a little which is a shame. As Num4 points out patients is 2023, If healthy volunteers is 2022 they could have defined that better and avoided the confusion. Definitely take the positives though, certainly will give confidence to any potential suitors.
Markets down so SAR goes down. No surprise and this share will only move on news, or a leak of news in which case those on the inside stock up big and then sell. You dont have to suffer the long game, you can make money quite easily with this share but you then run the risk of being out if the red dot appears, and thats a risk I personally cant stomach. I do wonder though why SAR dont just enter into an option agreement with big pharma, far easier than a full blown deal and mitigates the risk for both parties. They give us 10m upfront which is a drop in the ocean and for that 10m they retain the option to buy for a predetermined price which would be at a slight discount should trials be successful. If a bidder comes in before hand they have first refusal. The 10m gives SAR some breathing room, it boosts the share price and for big Pharma it mitigates the risk but guarantees the asset. I work in finance and asset management and this is common place. Far easier to value it as if it exists now rather than on potential. You pay a token amount based on the end price of say 1-2% for the option and off we go. GSK market cap is 54bn. I expect they have 10m in the CEOs toilet cupboard.
Here you go, very interesting read and shows how quick they can be done when big pharma wants a deal.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/sierra-wanted-partnership-gsk-wanted-store-how-19b-buy-out-came-be
I posted a timeline of the Sierra deal a short while back which explains everything and the whole thing took six week from the initial call from GSK to the deal being closed. Will dig it out and repost. You do have to wonder why we are not shouting about the positives of 737, you dont need a PR team to post a tweet. Heres hoping its for a good reason...
What got me was the speed of it, from an initial call on feb 11, declining two offers, involving 10 other companies and turning it around by April 4th. Thats pretty quick by anyones standards, guess it shows how quickly these things can happen when a company sticks a target on your back.
Interesting read about how the deal came together for Sierra
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/sierra-wanted-partnership-gsk-wanted-store-how-19b-buy-out-came-be
If you were GSK and sitting on a pile of cash or access to cash, and are confident in the potential or 737 then buying our SAR would be an easy decision. At worst your buying out and existing contact, at best your fully paid up with two extra potential blockbusters added to your pile. Fairly easy decision to make but I expect they will want Sierra out of the way and confirmed first, if not your risk free bet becomes a liability. On the other hand they could take an option for a chunky fee pending the closing of sierra but haven’t seen that too often in the medical field. Not really in SARS interest unless it’s one hell of a price.
As they mentioned in the QGM, does big pharma want to take a punt early doors for a lesser price or let SAR develop further through clinical trials and pay considerably more, with each phase each party rolls the dice, my guess is 1801 trails are completed and then if successful the bidding war begins with someone taking it out lock stock and barrel towards the end of the year. In the interim you never know someone might get twitchy and the red dot appears out the blue. All coming together, now it's just a question of time.