Member Info for RightOn

Yet another good day for information flow from the company. Today’s RNS led the way to a new company presentation, including the highlight for me that production is forecast to start before end 2021. This has been brought forward compared to the previous presentation. See this on https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5914577386e6c0cd77e15c74/t/5ec242126fb95c7e9653361e/1589789213547/Phoenix+Copper+Limited+Company+Presentation+15+May+2020_.pdf
I like this company and the flow of information they are offering. Next out will be the first results from the Red Star exploration programme.

Another excellent report supporting the advances being made by Phoenix, accessible on hTTps://phoenixcopperlimited.com/
It’s got a very wide perspective, and relates, to me, why so many people are interested and invested because of the very large potential from the whole asset, meaning the wider territory. I’ve pulled out some extracts which offer that picture:
“we made a three-day visit to the Empire project, including viewing the site of the proposed Red Star silver-lead mine, the open pit copper mine, historical workings and drill cores. We have followed this up with in-depth questioning of the Phoenix team on numerous occasions.“
“PXC acquired an 80% interest in the leases related to the Empire mine in 2013. By purchasing adjacent claims in the intervening period, the company has enlarged the original 818-acre Empire property into 5,717 acres”
“Mineralisation at the Empire system has been observed along a 5.4km strike that trends north west from the Empire open pit (oxide deposit) via Red Star and the White Knob and Horseshoe mines.”
“It is becoming increasingly likely that Empire, and the surrounding mines and deposits, are part of a much larger mineralised “system”. PXC’s consulting geologist, Nigel Maund, wrote
“The Empire Granite Porphyry Breccia (GPB) – Endoskarn copper + gold + silver + zinc + lead + molybdenum + tungsten – comprises a world-class polymetallic ore system sitting astride a major N-S structure.”
“it is estimated that less than 1% of the system has been “exploited and explored” so far, and the entire 5.4km of current strike length is open at depth.”
“Going forward, the deeper sulphide and potential porphyry ore body and targets will be the main focus of the ongoing exploration programme. This will allow PXC to evaluate multiple stages of mine development in the coming years.”
“we are excluding from our valuation of PXC:
? the initial copper mine (shallow oxide ore) for which PXC has completed a PEA – see next section (Copper mine: phase 1 and valuation);
? the nearby Navarre gold zone;
? two cobalt claims in northern Idaho, with mineralisation confirmed from initial sample results; and
? longer-term potential for developing a world-class copper-precious metals mine at Empire and the surrounding area.“
My Conclusion: You buy into Phoenix because of the fast return from the Red Star deposit, you hold to make a 10 plus bagger from all the outlying areas

I've been watching here a few weeks, having been recommended by a friend, and bought in and made a few pennies. My guess is that most posters are looking at the quick buck of ODX being part of the testing regime (as I was/am). That's a pretty clear binary result. If yes, then there's money to be made, and great, and I'll thank my friend. Let me return the compliment and suggest for those who have interest in a longer, perhaps steadier ride up, could I suggest PXC, a copper miner, in USA. Was 6p 1 month ago, now 20p, and according to the researchers it should be 30p shortly, and up to 140p next year. All based on a process of drilling programmes (fully funded), engineering, construction, and start-up. Don't trust me, take a look at the reports, researches, and RNS's. Good luck to one and all, for ODX to come good.

(See my earlier post for the link to the research)
Direct quotes follow on the Risk Analysis by WH Ireland in their research:
“Commodity risk is low”
“Sovereign risk is low”
“Market Risk is low”,
“Operating Risk are low-moderate”
“Project execution Risk is low”
“Permitting risk is low”
“Capital market risk low in the case of Phoenix but perhaps the biggest risk to the ongoing ambitions of the company at this stage”
What more do we need to know at this stage to manage risks on this potential 10 bagger?

“Our fair value for Phoenix is 34p/sh.“
“Unrisked our fair value target would rise from 34p/sh to 140p/sh. it shows what perhaps could be achieved if Phoenix could navigate the process from explorer to developer.”
“Investment case in a nutshell Phoenix Copper has advanced-stage exploration projects in Idaho and is seeking to develop a quick-to-market lead-silver mine at Red Star. In addition the company has a large copper-zinc(-gold-silver) resource at Empire, close to Red Star and two pure exploration plays: Navarre Creek for gold and Bighorn and Redcastle for cobalt – all of which have compelling geology. Red Star is a small, fundable project (in our opinion) which could generate the cash flow required to explore properly the obvious base and precious metal potential of the Red Star / Empire area. Fully funded for the next stage of resource development at Red Star, we expect 2020 to be a catalyst-rich year with substantial progress made to a development decision.”
“Red Star is a small, fundable project (in our opinion) which could generate the cash flow required to explore properly the obvious base and precious metal potential of the whole area.”
“the whole area remains prospective for further significant finds in our view”
“Future district potential is compelling. The whole Alder Creek district has significant potential with the old miners barely scratching the surface in our opinion.”
“we are of the opinion that there may be a larger prize at depth – perhaps a large-scale disseminated base metal deposit.”
“The current 20 hole drill program at Red Star will provide the early catalysts – with news on assay data and then a resource update, which should lead to an economic development plan. We also expect news of a new process flow sheet for Empire to demonstrate that the production of gold and silver is also viable from the copper-zinc ore.”
“WHI View Exploration companies always carry some risk, but Phoenix has passed the first hurdle, in our view, and demonstrated a resource (Empire) and is currently in the process of defining the limits and grades at a second deposit (Red Star). We see fair value at 34p/sh based on a SOTP valuation suitably risking the projects. Unrisked our fair value target would rise from 34p/sh to 140p/sh.”
“there is the potential for gold exploration Although the gold project is not a priority at the current time the Navarre Creek licence does show certain markers for the presence of epithermal gold mineralisation.”
“Management interests aligned with shareholders Management has stated it wishes to fund the projects from debt rather than resort to equity-heavy solutions for the benefit of shareholders. Directors also regularly buy in the market and also subscribe in equity placings – putting real skin in the game rather than relying on generous option packages.”

Have you seen the research by WH Ireland and posed on the Phoenix site? Go to https://phoenixcopperlimited.com/research and download this report. This is a splendid document. Very professional and detailed. Don’t trust me. I urge you to study it yourselves. Make your own analysis.
Let me give here my own key points, and then in my next post extract the words on which this is based.
WH Ireland see a fair value today at 34p per share, moving up to 140ish by the end of next year when the company is derisked, whilst they believe the company has already managed the risk concerning demonstrating the resource.
My own opinion is that this 140p sp will come earlier, and maybe go higher, since this report does not take account of the resources outside the immediate view, plus I believe that the placing of finance could give a massive hike to the overall programme, and not just the relatively narrow focus of this present research. That’s a near ten times bagger in just over a year, with much more to follow.
The whole area remains prospective for further significant finds in their view, with WH Ireland commending the road being taken to start with Red Star and use this as a lever to exploit the rest, including generating the revenue to look at the possibly huge unexplored potential at depth.
As was posted yesterday yesterday on ADVFN, this could be a billion dollar company in the not too distant future. That does sound good, so I'll say it again. A billion dollar company.

It’s been a quiet few days, so let me remind you of the main points about Phoenix.
The key message is that Phoenix is a company about to burst forth and multiply. They are sitting on a massive resource, are very well advanced with a drilling programme currently, leading into a FS later this year, and into finance for construction with production planned to start before end 2021. Resource information shows that the company is massively, massively undervalued. This company has a market capital today of approx £10 million, but within 18 months it could be worth near to ten times that. All this is spelled out and/or can be calculated from official public documents. Read and do that yourselves!
Some see the principal risk as financing the venture, but when you have a potential billion dollars of measured & indicated resources that should not be so difficult. They have taken the logical way through, by focussing on a small part of their resources, the “Red Star” mine, where for approx $25 million capital investment, they will generate the cash flow to exploit the giant reserves lying elsewhere in their property.
So, buy in today, hold, and you get access into a billion dollar company at a discount price. You need to do the research for yourselves, quite obviously.

and another director has announced that he has bought more shares . RNS this morning "Phoenix Copper Ltd (AIM: PXC, OTCQX: PXCLF), the AIM quoted North American focused base and precious metals company, has been informed that Andre Cohen, Non-Executive Director of the Company, purchased a total of 50,000 shares in the Company yesterday at a price of 16 pence per share. "

Let me ask a simple question. If you were the chair of a company with a project which you knew could not be easily financed, would you invest in it? Thank you Marcus for showing us the answer to that question, and for your further investment. I’m with you and also topped up some more today.

I want to highlight one point I noticed in the Monday RNS. The measured and indicated resources went up in value, according to my calculations, by over $200 million. That’s not a bad return considering they did that for just the £3 million raised in 2019. I say that is good management, good finance, and a board in control. I look forward to them raising our finance for Red Star in a similar way, and have every confidence they will do just that.

Daramuda, I trust the directors from Phoenix. I also do not want to lose my investment. Therefore your comments are worrying. But when I reflect, I wonder how accurately the comments reflect the situation. Let’s look at Oxus first. Yes, you said the company went bust, and yes Mr Wilkins was CFO, but you did not write that the asset was expropriated by the Uzbek government. Oxus was a lesson in political risk, which I know has been learnt.
Yes, you correctly describe the accounts, but then you do not mention that the money was transferred over as a debt to Konnex, their 100% owned company, who are using the funds. This was reported by the chairman in his opening statement in the annual report, “This loan earns interest at 6% per annum and will be repaid from cashflow generated from commercial production at Empire. It is our current intention that this loan, when repaid, together with profits distributed to us by Konnex, will allow us to return money to shareholders by way of dividends.” As far as I am concerned this is brilliant, for we will get back a lot of our investment in the early days of production. What’s wrong with that?
You talk of the company needing a “white knight”, but when we get the reports, or speak with the directors, they have never said anything except that they intend to finance the Red Star project through debt, and that they are confident to achieve that, and up to 100% if possible. If you look at the results presented this morning I can imagine companies queuing at the door to finance a venture like Phoenix.
Your comment places the change to Red Star as a negative point, but the reality is that the exploration work showed up a very rich mineralisation, lower capex with a faster payback, particularly in the period of declining copper prices. That is a no-brainer, and the flexibility for me is a plus.
If you are a shareholder, then as I have suggested earlier, please do call to Phoenix and sort out any concerns you may have, and even post your conversation here if you want.
For myself, in answer to Ruman, I suspect the price drop was indeed the MM’s playing games.

Did you see the increase in gold? In the Empire open pit, measured and indicated gold has just increased by a whopping 56%, bringing the in situ value to $368 million. Together with the news that Phoenix are now looking into a gold/silver Merrill Crowe recovery circuit, which will recover the gold, that’s great news. Then let’s not forget the Navarre Creek, a Carlin-trend gold discovery which hosts a 6.1 km gold strike length within a 9.8 km² area. This is a gold company in the making, let alone the copper, silver and zinc.

What an amazing RNS! Here’s the first of the new updates we’ve been promised. Now we know why the BoD were so positive on Thursday. Here’s a quick and early assessment.
Two key takes for me. First they have taken a deeper look into the gold and silver, “so that substantial gold and silver grades could stand on their own and not be subjected solely to the surrounding copper values. This has resulted in a larger overall pit shell that is inclusive of significantly more metal”. This has steered them to recover the gold and silver. This leads to my second take, that the resources have been significantly upgraded and particularly the gold, plus the bonus that recovering the gold and silver should also increase the overall metals recovery.
Looking at the results from this RNS in dollar terms, on the Empire Mine open pit work, measured and indicated resources contain 81,949 tons copper, 37,650 tons zinc, 6,824,460 ozs silver and 217,500 ozs gold. This last gold number is a real game changer, as it has shot up by 56%, and now they are planning to recover. Putting these numbers into a spread sheet, with today’s values, and assuming an approx 80% recovery of the metals, I came up with a total Empire M&I gross open pit value of $777,000,000!! This is just one small part of their territory, and excludes Red Star (with the copper and silver), Navarre (with the rich gold vein), the Cobalt at Redcastle and Bighorn, etc, etc. Plus I have excluded the inferred resources. And when we remember from the April RNS the Company’s consultant geologist concluded “At Empire, it is estimated that less than 1% of the potential ore system has been explored to date”, but backing off and using 5% discovered (in place of 1%) could place the whole insitu value of Empire, in the ground, at about $15 billion. Please come back and post if anyone has any comments on my assessment.
We can expect when Red Star gets into production for end 2021 the share price will be in high multiples of the price today. Putting this simply, investing into this £10 million company today you get in essence into the multi-billion dollar Empire programme, funded by Red Star, for free.

Where do I start? First, by acknowledging that we have a lot in common, as I was also invested in Oxus. We could down a lot of vodka discussing how this ended. But maybe we should start with the positive, with the model that Richard Wilkins and his team created, that he took Oxus from 5p on listing up to around 70p, when the Uzbek authorities stole it. I have confidence that the USA is a little more stable.
I found the AGM rather bland, almost matter of fact, but positive, a tick list of what they are doing. It was all over in 30 minutes. The February presentation does indeed say cash flow in 2022, but the front page of their website says “Production to commence in 2021”. Take your pick…
Rather than respond to your other points, because frankly I do not have the answers, let me say I believe the model and modus operandi of the company is NOW good. Surely after the debacle of Oxus you would of thought I would have run a mile, but quite the opposite. In Oxus the share price rocketed up before production started. As and when the market really does get it, I believe this share will rocket in a similar way not seen to date. This team are intent on building a business much larger than Oxus ever was, and in a much safer environment. Yes, there are some issues, like the USA listing, I agree, but I feel we are now close to delivering the potential we saw at the start. I’ll post some musings in the next few days on how I think this project can be financed.
Let me say I am totally independent of Phoenix/Oxus, I have never been connected with either of them, aside being a shareholder in both.
Could I suggest that you contact with Richard, Marcus or Dennis, and chat with them about the company. You are obviously deeply involved, so maybe you could even contribute some ideas to its success in some way.

Good morning daramuda. Thanks for your reply, and yes I was a little harsh with you, so sorry. I was simply disappointed your support for Jimmyjesus who was posting about wanting the benefit of actual production and not understanding risk/reward.
Phoenix has gone through difficult periods regarding money, for sure. The money raised from us investors has been spent in exploration, and moving the inferred resources up to the point where we can support mine investment. The forthcoming results from Red Star should allow us to move into that BFS. For the delays, I know from my own questions to management, Red Star posed a conundrum. They were intent on fast tracking the Empire Open Pit, but when the early results came back from Red Star these showed that even if they switched target, Red Star would give a greater ROI in a faster time, with the project delivered earlier. In the end it was a no brainer. But that gave the appearance of delays. Either resource needed the additional exploration work for the BFS. (and could I suggest you call to management if you have any questions. They have always responded politely to me)
I have no reason to distrust you concerning SLE. I took a quick look and it appears to be a different political regime, with very different issues. At least we have economic stability in USA, one would hope. Today we have Martin Hughes as an individual, so we don’t have SLE’s issues, and I remain very positive about him. After all he the confidence to come into us paying a 50% premium.
For the cobalt, as you heard in the AGM, no one can visit at the moment due to Covid, so there’s no activity. With the Cobalt majors taking an interest in the area, wouldn’t it be nice to sell them off to have that finance Red Star?
The USA debate is for another day, but I agree it has been a disappointment, without being so damning.
Finally, we heard in the AGM, they are still investigating Empire and promised results in the coming weeks, so I don’t think we can say yet that the switch to Red Star was due to poor expectations in Empire.

Look at the spread. This is a massive shake. The MM's are having some fun. But look at the buys. Expect this to continue upwards when they've had their fun.

JJ, you say that if this company were in production, you would be in heavily. That's good news. However, by then the share price may well be 200p or even more. The stage we are at now is the exploration step to get the first production financed. You have to assess the risk of the venture, and balance that against your own situation, and whether you could afford to lose your investment. It's simple risk vs reward. You had the opportunity to come in at 6p 2 weeks ago, you have it today at 20p. Investing in shares is always a risk (look at British Airways today, for example), so maybe shares are not for you? Look at the fundamentals. I have done my own research, and I believe here that the fundamentals are very sound. This is a company with a plan, and they are working to it. I disagree with daramuda, for we absolutely needed to go through the exploration phases before any finance could be raised for production, and they are doing that now, so his statement is not correct. And if you have done your research, you will see that there will be no problem paying off the debt, since payback is under a year. Plus a substantial part of the money raised to date has been written as a debt to the operating company, which they plan to feed back to us as dividend. So, its win win win, as far as I can see.
Please do your research, and it is very important you do, but then come to an independent judgement.

Here’s what I learned in the AGM (NB from hurriedly taken notes, so I may not have caught everything). They gave a brief operational update on Red Star, explaining why they are now focusing on this (rather than the previous Empire). Their drilling programme in 2018 showed a high grade silver/lead vein system in RS, which they felt they needed to come back to. They are today on hole number 2 (out of 20 planned) with no Coronavirus issues, since this is a remote isolated community. The assay results are expected from mid-June. They then gave an update on main Empire copper zone. Previous programmes have identified 15,000,000 tons ore with 73,000 tons Cu, with significant quantities of gold and silver associated. They have not stopped working on this project, but it has dropped in priority compared to Red Star. They now want to understand the relationship of gold and silver, and said news will be coming out in coming weeks (comment – I read in this very positive news). In questions they were asked about the time scale for the development of the Empire mine, and we were told it could be 18 to 24 months. A question was asked about what steps Phoenix are taking to raise finance without equity dilution? Richard Wilkins, the Finance Director responded that “It is our intent to minimise dilution”. “We have already placed a few loan notes, and hope to finance Red Star with debt related instruments”.
They were asked about main shareholders. The largest shareholder with 27% of shares is through Cheviot Capital (Nominees) Limited, most held by Martin Hughes, founder of Toscafund “he is a keen supporter of Phoenix”. Directors own approx. about 10%. Then Hobart Capital.
There was a question for what is happening with the Cobalt property? The response was “Our focus now is on Red Star. That does not mean we have dropped the Cobalt properties. We are just not working on them today. But also we cannot take anyone there today because of travel restrictions”.
Now my personal opinions. Although there was nothing truly exciting about this AGM, and no major announcements, I felt that the Phoenix team were buoyant. I could discern no feelings of unease in their venture, and that they felt that they were knocking down the obstacles one by one, on their way to production. Above all they were almost casual concerning finance, as if bored with the question. I would be very surprised if they had to turn to more share issues for finance. That gave me confidence.

but whatever, once this company is operating (end 2021) the sp will be many times more than it is today. A minimum of 5 times, I estimate, and quite possibly 15 times.

I estimate that the company could be worth approx £100 million when production starts at end 2021, based on today's discoveries, which would place the share price at almost 200p (others may question this - your opinions please?). Then if we make more discoveries, this share could be worth more, much more. And that is why Phoenix is flying.
Please note that the above is my opinion, and in no way is intended as any advice.