Member Info for RightOn

Back in early November, I wrote to H-L to ensure that my vote (against) the deal would be counted. They wrote back saying "We are currently waiting for more information on the Kaz Minerals Scheme of Arrangement but will be writing out to Shareholders in due course regarding how you can vote and take part in this Corporate Action". I wrote back recently and received the following " We have been waiting for a firm timetable of dates for this corporate action but will be writing out to Shareholders regarding this shortly".
Has anyone heard from H-L? Is the vote taking place? Does anyone know ?

Guys, I believe in honest debate, and I believe we have a good site here compared to many. So well done all round.

The company are restricted in what they can say, and sometimes even more importantly, what they can't say. For example, they cannot post "financially sensitive information" unless it goes out to all. That is why we have the RNS's, as it arrives to all together. One key point in everyone's minds is the question of finance. I think that 2Daman is confusing the raising of equity with an automatic drop in share price. His words "I prefer the option of a company funding by such a loan, and not dilution as such punishes early investors ". I disagree with you 2Daman. An equity raise does not always punish early investors. That may be your experience from some other companies, but does not necessarily apply to a well run company. Let me give an example. What if we bought Elon Musk into our company as a shareholder through an equity raise? I think you would agree that our sp would soar as a result. Today we have no knowledge of the plans to finance our project, but one thing we do know is that the board members themselves are all large shareholders. They would be the first to prevent an equity raise for the sake of bringing in money if it did not offer added value, not that I know that there will be any equity raise. I am inclined to trust the board, and their good intentions, and I think they will be planning things, if there is an equity raise, so that our share price booms. They may be teaming with major institutions, they may bring in high value individuals, I know not, but I trust them, for this is a company with a long term plan, and everything else I see is working out.

As an aside, we're all set for the webinar tonight, and it should be available by tomorrow. We have Ryan and Dennis, plus 6 shareholders, including myself, plus zaphod99, investorman33, goldrush, zac mir, and donald pond.

Good luck everyone, exciting days ahead!!

I see two huge takeaways from this RNS. First the word "unsecured". Second that this has been given. In order to offer any kind of loan of this nature, the lender would have performed a due diligence. They would have looked inside the box and seen the inside of PXC, and its numbers. They would have performed their own analysis. And they liked it so much, they were prepared to give an unsecured loan. In reality, it's the same process to loan £2 million, as it is £50 million, without many additional steps. This is a massive demonstration of confidence that the company will soon be up and running with its finance for the Empire Open Pit project. It's a coiled spring waiting to burst forth....

After the last week, the ups and downs, plus the knowledge that everything is lining up very nicely, in terms of delivering a profitable and eminently financeable project, combined with the price of copper moving up very nicely, this company has the feeling to me like a coiled spring, just waiting to surge up. Then we'll take the value the company is due and never see these levels of prices again. I can't wait for the weeks ahead....

Hi Sparky, a good question, and I've added it to the questions for the webinar next week. I'll report back with the answer.

A post on Telegram from Richard Wilkins, PXC CFO:

If we plug today’s metal prices into our economic model the base case 7.5% NPV pre-tax goes up to $143m and post-tax to $127m. The pre-production capital expenditure is paid back in less than one year. The IRR is 78% pre-tax and 68% post-tax.

We have to remember that on AIM it is the Market Makers who control the trades, and adjust the price to match available shares in the float. I suspect, that with the small number of trades on this site, that they do not pay continual attention, and tend to look at things in batches. In this way they lack subtlety. So, when seagreen accidentally sold his shares on Tuesday, he had no difficulty to sell, because they were moped up, but the MM's interpreted this as a moving down sentiment, and dropped the price. When he came back to buy, they had difficulty to fill the order, which has been a perennial problem here, but missed the equal and opposite trend being remote from the share, so the price never caught up. I really don't think it will take many more buys to see this share moving up, if the supply remains tight. Message to Seagreen. Don't sell shares when you have a hangover.

Have you seen the new presentation? It's on the front page of the PXC site. Indeed it does show new information, including the results from the Economic Model, plus a summary of Navarre Creek. It looks excellent, and if I were a potential investor or financier, I'd be looking deeper. I wonder why they've updated it just now, so soon after the last one came out?

I'll do it with spaces
the whole link
h t t p s: // t . m e /j o i n c h a t /I5hNdxg-LUTkNvtljGWq1A
Remove the spaces and you should be good

and here's what LSE have censored with the *** . you should cut and paste the following to replace the ****
**************
I hope this works now....

You can never win. Let's try to write the link another way
hXXps://**************I5hNdxg-LUTkNvtljGWq1A

Just to let you know that the company are hosting a shareholder webinar Tuesday afternoon, which they have asked me to chair. It will be based on a Q&A format, and will be hosted by Dennis Thomas and Ryan McDermott, from the company, with a few shareholders participating as representatives. The session will be recorded and posted after, for all to access. Questions in this session will be on the Economic model, regional geology and mining, local issues, future plans (Empire Open Pit, Red Star, Navarre Creek, etc). I will post the link to the webinar recording here.

To make it easier for this first webinar, the questions are being gathered on Telegram, and if you wanted to join in, here’s the link hTTps://**************I5hNdxg-LUTkNvtljGWq1A

Phoenix is a copper company. Did everyone notice copper is over $3.90/lb this morning?

According to a SP Angel briefing note:
• Copper prices in London rose above $8,500/t on Thursday, as Chinese traders retuned from holiday on positive footing due to improving sentiment over the recovery of economies aided by vast stimulus in major economies.
• China’s return to the market has resulted in base metals rising across the board in both London and Shanghai, led by copper rising 2.1% on the LME to its highest since April 2012.
• Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are said to have raised their 12-month copper price to US$10,000/t and ANZ Bank to US$9,000/t

Looking at the IRR (internal rate of return) and NPV (net present value) of the expected cash flows from the Empire open pit published in this weeks RNS, they used a copper price of $3.60/lb. If Goldmans and Citigroup are right then copper goes to $4.50, this would move the pre-tax NPV up from $127m to $184m and the IRR up from 77% to 100%. After the recent setback the market cap of Phoenix is £23.6m. This low price is not sustainable, and I can’t wait till the market wakes up!!

Like I said, Phoenix is a copper company!!

Back to the RNS, the report is very detailed describing their approach, and is to be commended. I see that they have presented strong economic arguments which support a long-term case for investment. They have also listened to shareholders and used much simpler language in the summaries. So well done there. Now I move onto what I think we will see in the near future, and why I continue to have great confidence. In the short term we will have some analysts reports, which should state their fair value price for PXC, and my bet is that it is way above where we are today. It is so obvious that the next major step will be finance for the project, and I guess they intend to do that with debt, if possible. I believe that a cash raise from us shareholders will be part of that, much like a deposit on a house, but I would expect this to be small compared to the size of the business, and I bet it will be the share price which will be the major beneficiary, since with finance in place the institutions will start to join us, not forgetting that this may well be the last call for cash ever. And once the institutions join in, there’ll be no looking back. Plus us shareholders will be relatively small in number compared to many other companies. That’s good for us, and a higher share price.

I’m not presenting secrets here, but my view. In my opinion those people who have left will be missing out, for they will be looking at our share price in the distance. I’m prepared to bet that our share price will be significantly higher after the equity raise than before. Through the summer there’ll be news from Navarre Creek and Red Star, and perhaps some of the others, which should keep the share ticking over, and hopefully upwards.

The data and the mathematics cannot hide that this share should be priced a lot, lot higher than where it is today. Look on that another way. It’s a great chance to get into this INVESTMENT today, whilst still a bargain price.

This is a mix of my opinion concerning the reasons you should be holding PXC as an investment, and my judgement of the RNS presenting the Economic Model.

First my view on holding this share. I have stated previously, and I repeat here, this is a share to buy into at today’s bargain price, and then watch it grow by many multiples. I’ll use an old fashioned word here. It’s an investment. It is well known that great investors spend a lot of time thinking about the businesses they’ve chosen, rather than following the share price. In the long run the value of the business is set by its underlying fundamentals and performance. That’s called INVESTMENT. Moving to follow short term share price movements is just a bet, and markets can spin round with no warning. For those who left us this week, thinking they will have an opportunity to get back in, I very much doubt that, for by the time he/she has the funds available to invest back in, we will surely be too expensive. That brings me neatly to the second part, and my own analysis of the RNS.

We see very clearly that the project is very eminently financeable, with a good cash flow, and a pay-back of under 2 years. The company have also promised to pay early dividends, so that’s cash back soon for investors. The Empire Open Pit mine makes economic sense just on its own. With the drive for electrification in the USA, this project will have no problem to get financed. Note that the EM must be based on a specific time period, and they have chosen 10 years. But in reality this mine will run and run, so there’s also an unwritten value which can be priced in for that. They have wisely kept the capital costs low to reduce early financing costs, but the key thing that Richard Wilkins highlighted in his post on Telegram, they are sitting on $1.4 billion of M&I resources, which requires just $52.6 million of capital investment. Let me put this another way. We have a safe containing $1.4 billion, and it’s only going to cost us $52.6 million to open the door! Then once we have this project up and running we can target the other deposits within the territory, such as Navarre Creek gold and Red Star Silver, both potentially huge. The BoD have taken a very clever approach, in my opinion, step-wise, planning to use cash generated from one project to open up the others. The final jewel, described as the elephant in the deep, is the deep sulphide resources, which the consultant geologist wrote says less than 1% of which has been explored to date. That’s huge. This approach is called an investment, and I think that the RNS presented a very strong case for investing in this company.

Hi Guys, I will be submitting a number of posts, summarising my views further to the RNS, but wanted to start with something funny, but also silly. One of the PI's with a reasonably large holding on PXC has come up with a confession. You can see this on ADVFN. He needed some cash, but Tuesday morning and with a large hangover, he missed the decimal point on the shares he wanted to sell, releasing ten times more than intended. With the large number of PI's holding onto their shares, and a bundle becoming available, this most likely was a major contributor to the change in our sp. The good news is that he wants to get back in, so the sp should be moving up now, if he can get his hands on free shares!
Now for my review to follow in the next couple of messages.

I think that all holders here are disappointed and surprised by the way that the sp has reacted after the RNS, me very much included. As a consequence, I have chatted around, and wanted to share what I have learned.

First, I wanted to point out something many people may have missed, and it says this right at the start of the RNS. The company are totally confident that the pre-production capex can be paid back in under 2 years, and so can be financed primarily from debt. Let me make this clear. The economic model says this starter project can pay-back in under 2 years. Who would not want to finance that? It's a no brainer to finance.

Now onto the issue of PR. The company is indeed organising a PR campaign, and analyst notes are being written even as I post. I understand that there will be an interview with Ryan, and all being well, this should out before the end of the week. It would have been earlier but for matters beyond the company’s control.

We’re planning the first webinar for next week, and I'm involved with that, to discuss the economic model and the immediate plans on site, and more on this later. Then there will be another webinar in early March to follow up on further plans, including the financing strategy.

I want to emphasise that PXC is planning a major exploration programme in the summer, which should see major advances in each of the projects. These are the projects which will move us from being small copper and gold producer up to another level. With this steady news flow, and the projects moving forward, I feel myself this company is a safe bet for a steady, even dramatic increase in value, and in sp. But that’s a personal opinion. My money is staying here, and I may well put some more in at the present level.

reappear it did! How strange.

Hi ODR, I wrote a message earlier, which I posted, and which has disappeared into the ether for me. I do hope this does not come up as another duplication, as I’m starting this one from scratch. Apologies if it reappears.

You are of course entitled to buy and sell freely, but I am not so sure you will be able to come back into this company at such a bargain price if you wander off in the hope of short term better returns. You overlook for example, that they are going out to raise finance, which will surely be announced sometime soon, and then there are the analysts reports which should give large boosts to the company value. Plus there are a number of other unexpected twists along the way, I am sure.

The market is made up of people seeking instant gratification, and long term holders. The short term traders, are free to do what they want, but I believe that this is the wrong share for them. This company has a strong BoD, with a determined plan, and with the EM out today, it looks eminently financeable and doable. Yes, there will be ups and downs, but I feel we will steadily carry on up. How can those traders guarantee that their new investment will not fall. Just look at Greatland, and the journey that has had, up and now down. Then how do you know you’ll be able to pull your money out without a loss? This takes me back to the old adage, gain in this share not by your timing, but by your long time invested.

HI ODR. I'm not so sure I would be so confident that the sp will not move up, and that you will be able to come back in.

We were always well aware that production would not start till year end, and when you look at it, this is following a normal project trajectory, which will always be in climbs and plateaus, with hopefully a steady but slow climb in between. Many punters seek instant gratification, jumping around between stocks, but frankly, as I have always said, I doubt this is the share for that sort of person, for it will move up, and perhaps unexpectedly, whilst those who moved their funds elsewhere may find they are down but locked in, and thereby missing out. We are 2 sorts pf people buying here, long term holders and traders, and there is no rule saying one is right, and the other wrong. But I would apply the old maxim here, it is not the timing in ownership which is key, but the time in ownership. Plus in the short term, there may well be analyst reports, corporates coming in, any of which are unexpected and could offer a major boost to the sp.

Today we had a load of short term sellers, and in that case there was nothing we could do in terms of PR. I think the price would have gone down anyway. Look at the CEO of GGP who seems to get great plaudits for his PR, but whose share has also taken a tumble. I am just not sure what has to be done, when the short termers want to sell.