Tipped8 Oct 2012 13:44
Today comes news from AIM listed tech stock 1Spatial (LSE:SPA) that it has secured a major new contract win and the shares have raced ahead to 4p on the news. But the gains are not over yet and here is why.
© Image copyright n0ssc
As it happens I wrote that shares in this company were a “compelling buy” HERE just three weeks ago at 2p after a chat with CEO Marcus Hanke. At the time my BB tormentor Bob (still licking his wounds after going long of JJB when I said it was going bust as it duly did) noted:
Tom you have consistently called this wrong in terms of profits and net cash. Is this time likely to be any different?
Having tipped the shares at 3.625p in August 2010 on a site whose name we do not mention and here at 2p three weeks ago I would suggest to Bob that a) consistently wrong is not quite accurate and that b) let’s hope folks followed my call not his on both 1Sparial and JJB and that c) he is a still a deranged and obsessive old coot with an addiction to factual inaccuracy. I digress…
Today’s brief statement reads:
The board of 1Spatial plc the AIM quoted business technology and profit improvement specialist, is pleased to announce a five year contract has been entered into to provide a US Government Bureau with software and related services. The board believes the contract is likely to have a positive material impact on the group’s results to January 2013 and beyond.
Marcus Hanke, CEO of 1Spatial plc, commented:
“We are delighted with this latest contract win. Not only does it enhance our presence and credentials in the US, but the length of the contract provides strong visibility as the Group focuses on organic growth and operating cash flow generation.”
I am not altering my forecasts on the back of this. I am still looking for EBITDA of c£2 million this year and closer to £3 million next. The company has net cash of c£4 million but if it sold Storage Fusion (the noncore unit which makes a trivial contribution of sod all to EBITDA) then I reckon net cash would be anything between £7 million and £14 million.
And so at 4p the market cap is £12 million. At the bottom end of the SF sale valuation the EV is £5 million – a one year out multiple of less than 2. At the top end of the SF range the EV is MINUS £2 million.
So what is my target price? I will go for a mid range SF valuation of £7 million. And valuing core 1 Spatial on 5 times next years’ EBITDA I get a s-o-p valuation of £24 million or 8p a share and with upside risk. The shares have doubled in 3 weeks. They can double again. Still a very strong buy.