Member Info for RichTheNewbie

13p. Not amazing but certainly not bad. So price just dipped to placing level on dodgy old AIM as it was probably forward sold.

No worries. Not sure you can call it research. Just a few musings about the things to come ;)

I think the whole placing debacle has been blown out of proportion and frankly is totally distracting from all the exciting things that are very likely to happen.

Most placings on AIM go to be wasted on running costs of companies struggling to make money or pay fat-cat BoD's whereas this company spends virtually nothing on that and they're well incentivised to get the SP up via options (which are at a much higher price than now).

Instead, if they do a placing here, it's to invest in something else, so it's not money that disappears like in lots of AIM companies. £5m raised is generally £5m invested in something worth £5m. Or in actual fact, usually every pound they invest is usually in something that turns out to be worth a lot more than what they paid!

Their investments look to be doing very well so far, and if this £5m raised is used as well as they have so far, then it just means the company is going to grow bigger, faster.

That may be true but I disagree about it being easy to trace unless someone was particularly stupid ;)
(anyway let's move on and not give the scumbags more airtime than they deserve - which is none)

Ah, well that makes sense, if they had more then I'd question my thinking, and the placing.

However that's a sensible level of cash to retain and therefore I think the suggestion(s) I posted below may therefore be the rough plan.

To slightly refine the Intensity thinking.....

If they describe the warrants as "of interest to UK based institutional investors", then perhaps this implies they will simply sell the warrants to these IIs, in order to get some more cash in a quick win, and leave their existing stake intact.

They've got the rights to take up to $9m more of Factom.....
$9m = £6.88m
If the raising is for £5m then that's £1.88m more they need for the full $9m.

Perhaps those Intensity warrants will be flogged for a tidy profit, make up this difference, and allow FFWD to take up the full $9m.

What would people estimate the current cash situation is at FFWD? (being lazy and don't have the time to dig through the data right now)

Frankly it looks like a period of aggressive growth where they'll be raising stakes in the things they think are most promising (Factom) and leveraging other things to do it (Intensity) coupled with some placing cash. Then again.....that's always been the case hasn't it!

On a different investment I think this is the paragraph that's not been talked about enough:
"The results from Intensity Therapeutics' work continues to be so positive we had no hesitation taking up FFWD's pro rata entitlement in the Series B funding round. In addition, the Warrant granted to FFWD locks in a right for the Company to invest further funds at US$5.00 per share should results over the Summer continue to impress. We believe the Warrant will be of interest to UK based institutional investors and the Company plans to present, with Intensity management, the results of the IT-01 study to date to interested parties over the Summer."

I think that's the biggest heads-up you can get they think there's some serious value to be made from this.

The prelude to this being....."In addition to the Subscription, the Company has been granted a warrant by Intensity to subscribe for up to either (a) a further 1,111,111 Series B shares at a price of $4.50 per share or (b) 1,000,000 new common shares of Intensity at a price of US$5 per share (total value US$5 million) at any time prior to 30 September 2018 (the "Warrant"). Any allocation under (i) is conditional on Intensity having sold fewer than 2,000,000 Series B shares (raising US$9 million) with the balance available under the Warrant to be subscribed as common shares. The Subscription will be funded from existing cash resources whilst exercise of the Warrant will be reliant on further funding being available at that time."

So......FFWD looking to raise £5m eh? I think Factom is not the first mover event.

I think they'll take their option in Intensity higher, then tout round to the institutional investors, and with the proceeds of their efforts (whether that's by placing to them at a premium or selling some of the stake), then plough that back into the Factom option. Or something like this.

Pleasantly surprised by all the rational posts on here.This alone bodes well.
I always like to think as if I was a bear/shorter (which I do on certain stocks...but very rarely).
If I was bearish or going to go short, I wouldn't want to go anywhere near 10p, I'd definitely close out around 11p, if being super aggresive.
However if I was being "average", I would be closing now, expecting the placing, at worst, to be 12p, in a pretty bearish case, and if the raising was for an investment I thought wouldn't be good.
Therefore downside to me from now is pretty limited unless the short term scaremongers can convince people all the existing investments are worth less than anyone impartial would really think.
You never know on AIM though (punters are irrational)!
My gamble is the bounce has already started, and if it hasn't, it won't go much lower.
Bonsoir mes amis.

In a way I should thank you, or those that sold shortly before you, as it's let me increase my position cheaper than I expected to be able to, and if I'm right, will mean I profit more soon enough.
Fingers crossed!

Fair enough.
Each to their own.
I've done the same myself in the past.
Although obviously I disagree about the merit now.
I wouldn't expect you to get in much lower now but you never know.
I certainly don't expect the placing price to be much lower than now (in fact I think there's a good chance it'll be at 15p or above).

Good price considering the trading I should probably be clear - rather than being a good price to sell!
As I don't think it's a good idea to be selling over the current fuss over nothing.

Well you got a very good price. Even if I think people are making a mistake over this placing ;)
Strange for you to be offered that high unless they're trying hard to get the shares.

pomander - not sure why you don't believe it - you just listed potential people they could tout around to :p

That's very fishy.
I either don't believe that for a second or there must be a huge amount of background buy orders for you to have got that price to sell based on the trading.

I don't think it works like that.
I think it's more a case of them looking to raise money (could be at 15p/20p for all we know).
The broker then touts around to gauge interest.
Unfortunately, in that process of touting around, it only takes one person, not necessarily at Optiva, to then spill the beans, and nefarious people use it to their advantage.
Any news of a placing generally hurts any AIM stock....even if this could potentially be at a premium to the SP here (especially now).

As I say, I think they could just manage the comms a bit better, and say "we're not interested raising funds at under 15p/17p/20p".....and you'd probably see an even quicker bounce back.

If they were raising at a good price - people would probably be fine with it - or in potentially excited if it was a very good price.

Added a few myself. Be rude not to take advantage of the situation I suppose.

Worst thing is, some people will get paniced by the scaremongers and sell, whilst the scaremongers close their shorts and buy, so it bounces back, leaving the scaremongers with a nice profit, and the worried PIs having sold out at the lows.

Manifesto - that's why I ask about a floor price.
It's madness if they don't have a price below which they won't raise.
Frankly I think stating the price they'd not raise below would have reassured the market.
As it stands all people see is placing and assume it's bad.

It would have been helpful if they'd actually said something like "we will not be raising funds below 15p" for example.
As it stands it just helps the scaremongers.

I've Tweeted to ask Ed McDermott about it.
Looks like he occasionally replies to people so might get a response might not.

If you use history as an example..... in two weeks the share went from 6.5p mid December to 16.5p in January 2016.

They then raised funds at 15p. Prior to that the share price had been averaging about 7p.

So they effectively raised funds at double the price that the stock had been trading at prior to the placing rise.

Following the placing the share price traded generally between 10 and 20p.

There's no reason they should be placing for anything less than the 15p they previously did and in fact this time I imagine they could demand more from investors who want a sizeable stake.

Let's not forget it could turn out the placing is done at a premium. Say 20p.
People might pay that to get a sizeable stake which they couldn't on the open market.
Remember a few months ago Abony sold his shares to a mate for 17.6p to give him a sizeable stake.
That's mates rates.
Non mates rates could easily be higher.