Member Info for RichTheNewbie

It's more dilution at a low price that they don't need to do. They only had to agree to that price to the big financiers to get them to agree to hand over billions ;)

Hope has been removed at Frontera? Been replaced by despair?

Andy - just remember:
- if the shorts are rising, along with the price, that's selling pressure that is being outweighed by buying
- those shorts either have the shares already that they'll need to close OR have them coming OR will need to buy on the market
- if they've got them already the market impact of their selling has already been nullified by current buying and them closing will have no effect
- if they've got them coming then the market impact of their selling has already been nullified by current buying and them closing will have no effect
- if they've not got them already and got none coming then the market impact of their selling has already been nullified by current buying and on top of that they'll need to buy more to close their shorts later (supporting or pushing up the price)

I'd say it's more likely to be one of the first two options and people shorting who've already got shares (or got them coming). Basically hedging their bets temporarily. The fact the price has risen anyway is a good sign of strength.

If they don't have any shares yet or coming.....then that's great and there's more strength to come in future when they try to close ;)

I think you're looking at the wrong share then.

If I had been listening to RuSirius, and sold, I'd probably be praying for that too. Woops!

They really won't give a monkeys whether people take the open offer or not jango (let alone "pumping" to make people take it)!
If many of us who weren't holders until recently, whether that's two-bit PI's like me, or major institutions/funds/family-offices/etc, are now buying in because we believe the funding is now likely to be a done deal, then who can we buy the shares from cheaply?
If we say it's just from sellers of the open offer shares (in advance) of 4.8bn divided by 22 (roughly) = that's 218m.
You look at the volumes since 30th Apr/1st May......it's far more than that.
Let's assume there was no open offer.....where would all the sellers come from down at 15/16/17p? I don't imagine most PIs would be selling lots (ignoring some of this OO churn).
I think you're simply seeing the PI selling running out and the price naturally rising on account of the fundamental improvement in the outlook for the company (higher chance of the project coming to fruition, less funding risk, at the expense of a slightly lower long-term return to get it there).

It's why I kept (boringly) warning that there seemed to be a collective mindset of holders they could just sell everything, take a tiny proportion in the open offer, and then buy back more cheaply, either on-market or as extras in the open offer.

Instead of looking at the bigger picture of funding being largely sorted for the first time, unlike previous financing events, and for the first time bigger players being in with bigger chunks, who benefit from the price rising.

That being the case there was the danger that longer term holders would sell out on the lows, focusing on the open-offer price, and neglect the fact the price is low and interests of increasingly bigger players wanting the price up, and potentially still buying in now the funding looks like it's sorted.

Now there's always the chance the price will fall back but the trading does seem to suggest the market is happy to take advantage and hoover up any shares anyone wants to sell down here.....

ffcmember - my point isn't related to what any individual buys (or doesn't) so don't take it as derogatory as it sounds like you have slightly. It's that the entire volume of the offer really isn't massive in the wider context (as well as time-limited) and therefore I think people are in danger of being caught up in placing undue emphasis on its importance to the SP going forwards.

It's worth re-iterating yet again.....that the open offer is really for a piddly proportion of the shares in issue in the grand scheme of things. People continue to obsess over the perceived giant impact of it when in reality it's just a short term factor that will quickly pass and is essentially a token gift to existing holders. Imo ;)

The price has reached Kronenbourg levels.
(couldn't pass up the opportunity to make a crap joke like that now could I)

You've seen that for days.......but it's a finite supply (of shares, and people who wish to) that will dry up.

There really needs to be a sticky-note placed at the top of this board saying "you can apply for extra shares in the open offer but you're not guaranteed to get any and most likely would only get a very small amount if you do". ;)

I think we should have an "open offer amnesty" rather than talking endlessly about what is essentially a trivial amount of shares in the grand scheme of things......

one that I follow (not one that spouts guff) just in case that wasn't completely clear ;)

He might not be Warren Buffett, but of all the Twitter lot who talk about shares, he does make a lot of remarkably good calls, and isn't trading in chicken feed amounts I'm sure. I only follow a grand total of 17 people on Twitter (as most spout total guff). He's one of them.

Whilst everyone worries about tiny batches of shares in the open offer.....this is rising back nicely as expected ;)

Personally I'd recommend anyone ditch the big-banks for investing/trading.
I think they're generally all awful.
I'd be amazed if you didn't find someone like IG much better.

Obviously true, and I would if I didn't have enough already really, just hoping to nick a few more cheaply :p (it's more difficult on the spreads which are priced on the top of the ask plus a premium)

Looks like we're lining up for another fun day of RuSirius endlessly moaning because he invested at the wrong time, some other cretins and their multiple accounts trying to badly scaremonger saying it's going to be 1p/5/10p tomorrow with no real justification, and a few sensible messages in between. ;)

This is where I think people may miss a trick Vin (and fractionally disagree with you).
The open-offer is only for a limited amount of shares (only 1 for 22 people already have).
Some will have just flipped for a tiny guaranteed profit and some will want to hold long term regardless leaving only a further subset of that 1 in 22 shares as "float" that might be converted. There's also a limited period of time this can be done.
Hence that point where there's no longer any cheap shares on offer (via the open offer) could dry up quicker than people expect.
When they do, it's down to the remaining PI's whether they want to sell sub-20p, or any of the bigger financiers.
I don't imagine there'll be masses of PI's rushing to sell sub-20p if they've not already done it recently (would be weird to hold longer just to do that)!
This is the reason I think you've got the usual suspects around claiming it'll be 1p tomorrow or something silly. They know this is their best chance to get in at the lows.