Member Info for RichGreenwood

Tnbird - that is correct, and Tamboran has 1.9 million net prospective acres.

Https://www.tamboran.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Beetaloo-commerciality-proven-with-SS-1H-well_260224.pdf

There are certainly a lot of interesting parallels to the Marcellus and other US shales. Maybe the biggest issues keeping values down is investors desire for cash flow and certainty. However, I am with most of the group here that this play is looking promising. THe first HZ well in the Marcellus was drilled by Range in 2006. There are a few interesting stats on the Marcellus at https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/marcellus-shale-10547#:~:text=The%20Renz%20Unit%20%231%2C%20the,horizontal%20Marcellus%20well%20in%20Pennsylvania.

By the close of 2007, Range had drilled 44 vertical and 15 horizontal wells in the Marcellus play and invested about $200 million. The Marcellus was real, although it took some in the industry another year to fully appreciate the black shale’s potential.

and at https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2022/01_27/, including:

The initial production rate of natural gas from a new well drilled in the Marcellus Formation in the Appalachia Basin increased from about 5.6 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2014 to approximately 15.8 MMcf/d in 2020, based on well-level data from Enverus.

GLA!!!

By adjusting, or normalizing, for these longer lateral lengths, we can assess increased well productivity from improved completion designs. Improved completion designs can include different proppant sizes and types, larger or varied water and gel mixes to carry the proppant throughout the induced fractures, and improved hydraulic fracturing techniques that allow better fracture propagation. Based on the normalized well productivity data, we calculate that the initial production rate from the average Marcellus natural gas well has been increasing by approximately 27% to 31% biyearly over the past six years for which complete data are available to build the decline profiles.

There are certainly a lot of interesting parallels to the Marcellus and other US shales. Maybe the biggest issues keeping values down is investors desire for cash flow and certainty. However, I am with most of the group here that this play is looking promising. THe first HZ well in the Marcellus was drilled by Range in 2006. There are a few interesting stats on the Marcellus at https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/marcellus-shale-10547#:~:text=The%20Renz%20Unit%20%231%2C%20the,horizontal%20Marcellus%20well%20in%20Pennsylvania.

By the close of 2007, Range had drilled 44 vertical and 15 horizontal wells in the Marcellus play and invested about $200 million. The Marcellus was real, although it took some in the industry another year to fully appreciate the black shale’s potential.

and at https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2022/01_27/, including:

The initial production rate of natural gas from a new well drilled in the Marcellus Formation in the Appalachia Basin increased from about 5.6 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2014 to approximately 15.8 MMcf/d in 2020, based on well-level data from Enverus.

GLA!!!

By adjusting, or normalizing, for these longer lateral lengths, we can assess increased well productivity from improved completion designs. Improved completion designs can include different proppant sizes and types, larger or varied water and gel mixes to carry the proppant throughout the induced fractures, and improved hydraulic fracturing techniques that allow better fracture propagation. Based on the normalized well productivity data, we calculate that the initial production rate from the average Marcellus natural gas well has been increasing by approximately 27% to 31% biyearly over the past six years for which complete data are available to build the decline profiles.

This was posted on Tambo's Hot Copper chat this morning:

From a nameless Broker

Note that market acquisition values have been around A$1.00-1.50/Gj with some over A$2/Gj.

TBN’s share of 17TCF would be 6.6TCF (7062Pj).

NPV basis at A$1.33/Gj = A$9.4bn.

Should SS1H IP30 give 20 BCF EUR then the NPV6 is 20% higher at A$1.59/Gj @ A$10/Gj.

This is only a simple yardstick since it will take many many decades to flow this volume of gas and this is only a small part of the Mid Velkerri B Formation and there is much much more in Mid Velkerri A and C. As well as other productive formation s in the stratigraphy.

TBN’s share of 27TCF would be 10.46TCF (11,192Pj).

These are of course long term projections but 2024 will be a truly transformative year for TBN.

SS1H IP30 followed by SN1V to confirm upgrade to 27 TCF and the commitment to the Shenandoah Pilot Development should change market perceptions of TBN and the Beetaloo.

TBN Major rerating coming here

TBN Price at posting: 21.5¢ Sent

This is a tough one to call. I think Biden's decsiion to put a moratorium on new LNG plant permits in the U.S. is a potential positive factor for Ausiie LNG. However, on a large wildcat play and lower values oil and gas investments have garnered for the last few years, it is really hard to say when we will see values rise. As a long time holder, I am still betting on an increase in value over time. I think we need to see this start cash flowing before we see any big uptick.

The below meeting is being held at 11:30 am Mountan Time today. It is sold out.

From Matt SilvermanMatt Silverman • 1st • 1st Senior Geoscience Advisor at Robert L. Bayless, ProducerSenior Geoscience Advisor at Robert L. Bayless, Producer

I'll be presenting at the Explorer's Club November 16 luncheon with Donny Loughry from Tamboran Resources. Our talk will be "Pioneering a Highly Unconventional, Multi-TCF Gas Play in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia." We'll describe the history of the play and the ongoing drilling activities which have revealed a world-class gas province.

The key reservoir, the thick, high-TOC Mesoproterozoic Velkerri Shale, could be one of the world's oldest productive petroleum systems. It shares geological similarities with the Marcellus formation over a vast area. Appraisal efforts are well underway, with the aim of achieving first gas sales by 2026 and a 2 BCFD gas supply by 2030.

It's happening at the Hotel Monaco in downtown Denver on Thursday, November 16, 2023, starting at 11:30 AM.

The luncheon fee is $50 per person and can be settled upon your arrival via Venmo, cash, or check. The venue will be in the basement meeting rooms, and please be aware that they can only accommodate the first 50 RSVPs. To attend, email Jacinda Brown at jacinda@roxyenergy.com by NOON on Monday, November 13, 2023.

WetWater - as I said, veryone has different thoughts on this issue. IMHO, a rollup into Tambo now would eliminate the G&A burn and woudl still offer upside in Tambo. Of course, it all depends on what the exchange rate would be as to whether or not it makes sense. Given BS's investment in Tambo, I would feel much more comfortable with my investment under that team that what we have at FOG. Every shale play is one huge learning curve. It is going to take time. I do not think that current management will last unless they quit fumbling the ball.

Did anyone listen to the call and hear any updates on the well with the skin issue?

Given the amonot Falcon is spending on G&A, maybe it is time to roll up Falcon into Tambo. I understand there is always a tough bid/ask on these types of deals, and everyone has different thoughts, but it makes no sense for FOG to continue burning cash on G&A when it has ansolutely no activity.

The RaaS report is interesting, but not exactly unbiased. "This report has been commissioned by Empire Energy Group Ltd prepared and issued by RaaS Advisory Pty Ltd. RaaS Advisory has been paid a fee to prepare this report." It would be nice to see some independent analyst reports on the companies.

Yep. not many positves but Tambo's trading volume has been quite a bit higher recently and Baupost and TIAA CREF have built significant positions in Tambo. Hopefully that translates into something for FOG one of these days.

LOG - I believe this will occur at 22nd Jun 2023 at 4:30pm BST, which I believe will be 11:30 am Eastern Time.

I signed up and received an email that said to contact support@investormeetcompany.com.

FOG news release

31 March 2022 - Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, AIM: FOG) is pleased to announce that it has received a subscription from Sheffield Holdings LP (“Sheffield”) for a US$10 million private placement through the issue of 62,500,000 Common Shares (“the Placing Shares”) at a price of CAD$0.20 per share (“the Placing”). Following the placement Sheffield will hold a total of 90,443,607 Common Shares of Falcon, representing 8.66% of Falcon’s issued and outstanding Common Shares.

BB - agree wtih that. Having HP invest in Tamboran and move one of its newer rigs from the US is one of the biggest votes of confidence on the reservoirs that we have. The political risk is probably the most significant weight on share prices. Hopefully we get good intial flow test results later this month and the NT and federal governments get their acts together.

I bought in around 2006 and sold a few years later for a small profit. I started buying back in around 2013 and am averaging USD $0.14.

Newt - I am certain they will flow test the well as soon as they set the production tubing. When they flow test, will need to flare. Otherwise, they would be venting all of that gas to the atmosphere, which is not an okay practice. In the U.S., many of the larger public companies will not flow back a well until they are pipeline connected because they have anti-flaring policies.

On slide 11 in the March 22 investor deck (https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/5a346b5d-647.pdf), they state:
- Rig currently enroute to Australia from the US.
- Targeting spud at EP 98 location in mid-2023.

Dprussky - I believe the gas would still need to be flared until there is a pipeline to deliver the gas.

Appears someone may be building a position. There has been a nice uptick in volumes on the LSE over the last 8 trading sessions:
Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Mar 29, 2023 9.04 9.20 8.82 9.15 9.15 3,164,965
Mar 28, 2023 9.30 9.20 8.92 9.15 9.15 2,305,073
Mar 27, 2023 9.30 9.40 9.20 9.30 9.30 713,276
Mar 24, 2023 9.25 9.40 8.92 9.30 9.30 1,482,658
Mar 23, 2023 9.05 9.20 9.00 9.25 9.25 352,303
Mar 22, 2023 8.75 9.07 8.26 9.05 9.05 892,826
Mar 21, 2023 8.60 8.65 8.20 8.30 8.30 214,760
Mar 20, 2023 8.60 8.60 8.10 8.50 8.50 1,072,055

2 new directors elected to board.

https://investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/8e960ac4-2c5.pdf