WW - I agree. It has only been 6 days since both Origin and Falcon provided updates, and the same updated info appears on Origin's website. Being a large public companies, I would think that Origin would make an announcement and change info on the website if it receives any information that would be material to investors, especially if it decides that it will not drill one or both wells this year.
I think that a 2,000 meter lateral could provide a pretty good indication. Depending on results in this play, they may decide that 2,000 meters is the most economic. Just as important is the cost of drilling and completing a 2,000 or 3,000 meter lateral compared to how productive it is (EOG calls this the "Profitability Ratio = Revenue / Well Cost",), including the number of stages and the proppant (e.g., sand) per stage. See EOG's recent presentation at http://investors.eogresources.com/Cache/1500119996.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1500119996&iid=4075407.
We have seen lateral lengths in U.S. shale plays trend form 1 mile to 2 mile (1600 to 3200 meters) over the last few years. I found an interesting paper that discusses lateral length, number of stages of fracks, and amount of proppant per stage. For lateral length productivity, see Figure 11 in Permian Basin Horizontal Well Productivity by Lateral Length Segment at https://eprinc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Final-Shale-Well-Productivity.pdf
RE: Both EMP's being held up - why?16 Jul 2019 21:47
According to a June 3 online article in the Katherine Times, there were over 6,000 submissions filed by interested persons opposing the Origin EMP. It appears that most were submitted by the anti-fracking activists . In an attempt to be objective about what is transpiring, it is very possible that the NY government is trying to give due consideration to all complaints in order that they can withstand any judicial review of this process. This may be the best thing for all of us FOG shareholders.
Does anyone know if the PH shares are registered? I am guessing (not sure) that they are not. If not, I would think (a) without a registration statement being filed by FOV, they would need to be sold in a private placement (in which case we will not know until the buyer filed a schedule 13 d or 13g or, if it is sold in smaller pieces, we will not know because it will be under the schedule 13 limits) and (b) It is possible PH had registration rights, in which case we should see a registration statement filed.
If I recall correctly, Origin did not do a very big frack. I think they had to stop after 11 stages. If they use a modern frack design, I suspect it will be 2 or 3 times as many stages and a lot more proppant.
bigones - not sure where you got 1000 feet hz leg. section 3.2 of the EMP states that the hz leg will be up to 3000 m:
The final hole section (referred as the ‘production hole section’) covers the target hydrocarbon reservoir section and is drilled to the well Total Depth (TD). TD is likely to be reached at approximately 2000-3000m below the surface, depending on the stratigraphic depth and thickness of the zone of interest and may extend up to 3000m laterally within the reservoir. This hole section is again cased and cemented in place. The design of the various casing strings is illustrated in Figure 5. It should be noted that the production casing in this diagram is vertical, whereas the actual production casing orientation is horizontal. :
" A number of countries, including China,1 Mexico,2 Argentina,3 Poland,4 India,5 and Australia 6 are considering or are in the process of developing their own shale gas resources.7 Naturally, scholars, policymakers, and many other stakeholders who are interested in the development of shale gas outside of the United States are asking about the important factors for successfully developing shale gas resources. One way to shed light on this issue is to learn from the US experience."
Value per acre of Beetaloo interest12 Feb 2019 15:29
Given the level of activity and the data from the wells so far (including Origin's discovery well), the stock seems pretty cheap based on a dollar per acre metric. FOG has an enterprise value (about $6 million cash on hand, no debt) of USD $235 MM with 1.4 MM acres in the Beetaloo, which is USD $168 per acre. It is contiguous, which is a big plus for development, but it is a non-op interest. In other resource plays, especially shale plays in the U.S., many times the price of oil and gas leases exceed $5,000 to $20,000 per acre when when a resource starts being proven.