Thoughts on IES14 Dec 2022 20:49
For those of us who have been here since before the recent rise in the sp, you may recall a discussion about cash flow. It went something along the lines of 'the company burnt through 11 million between Jan and end of June this year and has 10 mill in the bank: how is it going to be funded after December?'
If you read deeper into the trading statement released on 29th Sep you will find this:
'Whilst the Group continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of ongoing global challenges, as with many operations at this stage of development, it remains reliant on timely receipts and closely managed costs. Should existing contracts be delivered more than three-months late or the Group fail to win LODES, or an equivalent contract, early next year then, assuming the Group maintains its current operational capacity, it will be necessary to raise further funding within the next 12-months in order to continue trading and delivering on the current strategic objectives.'
It would appear we have reached that point. Why? We don't know, but in order to keep the company as a going concern it has clearly become necessary to borrow and have 2.5 million of that right now. Possibly just to keep things ticking over?
On the plus side:
'Over the next 12-months the Group expects to receive approximately £7.7m of milestone payments under existing contracts. As these payments become due on the successful delivery of future milestones, they have not yet been recognised in the balance sheet as receivable. Over 80% of the balance relates to two contracts, being Yadlamalka and Elemental.'
And there are considerable contracts which have been signed recently which in turn will bring money in. There is also this from the same statement:
Corporate & Strategic Initiatives
There are three architectonic trends that will drive Invinity's success over the next years:
1) Growing recognition of the central role of battery energy storage in successful deployment of renewable energy;
2) The inability of lithium batteries to meet demand, not only because of concerns about safety and longevity, but because the global transition to EVs will demand more lithium batteries than can be produced, leaving few for stationary energy storage, and those few will be more expensive and take longer to ship; and
3) Proven alternatives to lithium batteries supported by credible companies will be in great demand and Invinity is well-positioned to be such an alternative.
None of this has changed. The loan RNS'd today merely allows the company to keep going, rather than panicking at the last minute. Don't get me wrong, needing debt isn't great. But the catalysts driving this company are still intact, and this loan keeps the lights on so that Invinity can achieve the potential we believe it can.
To would-be long term investors, welcome to what will hopefully be a great investment.
To traders, well, you bent down in front of a bulldozer to pick up a quid and it moved. Quickly.