The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Very difficult to make a realistic prediction I’m afraid. This is a non-profitable biotech on AIM after all. I would say though, that if break even happens, and the current double digit revenue growth continues and sustainably TRX grows double-digits every year then it will be worth substantially more. The company needs to achieve these milestones to overcome a certain amount of baggage which is also weighing down the sp. I am encouraged that the recent big moves by investors appears to have been interpreted positively by the market.
You do start to wonder if someone knows something we don’t!
There does seem to be some sizeable movement of ownership going on. Just he run up to results in Sep? As some are increasing and some selling I’m not concerned. If they were all dumping en masse I’d be more bothered.
Given the low impact on the sp someone must have been snapping them up. They’ve held for years, not a good sign such a large reduction. Anybody any thoughts?
Sounds reasonable BodRuncie. Either way, it will put TRX onto more investor's radar and increase interest hopefully.
Just out of interest, how does someone put a £1 million trade through without causing the sp to jump?? Surely there should have been some reaction? Is there someway of organising these things under the radar?? I mean, I know Warren Buffet gets to buy things en masse before it becomes public but I don't think he's interested in small biotechs. Unfortunately!
Very impressive, shows some real interest in the company! We will wait and see what happens next!
Given how the major share holders have stuck with this company for so long, it would appear to be against their investment philosophy/mindset to take a quick bounce and sell. it's obviously difficult to predict another investors actions but sticking with TRX despite several opportunities to bail would suggest they're in this for the long haul.
I think there’s limited evidence to support the idea that a further fundraiser will be necessary for TRX. Management did say at the last call they believed they were funded through to profitability (but increased their debt facility just in case). I don’t think they would have said that unless they were confident. Given the absence of any news in the US regarding elective surgery rates falling, covid surging causing probs etc would suggest that no news is good news and we will have to wait for the next trading update for specifics.
Afternoon MrTibs, historically we get an update early in Sep as the half year results. We have no reason I am aware of that this timetable has changed.
There is a general consensus that the results should be good and that the long awaited breakeven may be announced, or at least we will be very close! Certainly the latest Hardman report intimated that everything was trundling in the right direction.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-62040946
Invinity doesn’t get a mention directly unfortunately but those who know, know!
You’re right of course Mikemine, we have been saying it for a long time. But momentum is building behind Invinity as the sales and pipeline show. At the moment an overwhelming collection of macro factors are crushing the stock (but not the company itself it would seem?). If they can stay afloat until the sales increase enough to take us to a profit then everything should be plain sailing. I get the impression that Larry is more comfortable (perhaps as an American?) to be unprofitable and is frustrated by the more conservative investment forces in the UK panicking about a lack of profitability. But it’s just a hunch.
Good article Mikemine, several things come across for me:
- Energy storage is becoming increasingly mainstream and accepted as necessary and possible.
- If California can pull it off, the state will be a case study and proof on a massive scale as to what energy storage can do.
- Hopefully, where California leads others will follow. Especially if other states continue to have power outages and they don’t! We just need Invinity to establish it’s US presence and factory asap.
Management do seem to be delivering on their promises. I was thinking whilst watching, that VRFBs are most suitable in the US and Oz where space to build them is less of an issue given their footprint. In the UK land tends to be much harder to find and more expensive I would imagine. Also, solar panels must be more efficient in these countries than in the UK meaning storage will be more useful (?) As adoption of this tech continues and more working case studies can be highlighted to new customers, then there should be a snowball effect. The company will need to stay afloat in the meantime and this could well be the challenge for the next twelve months. Hopefully supply chain issues will begin to resolve soon.
An excellent series of posts Agricore. This is exactly what these boards should be like and it is a refreshing change from some of the things you read at times on here (not often on the IES board to be fair).
As you say, not all the sales will convert onto the bottom line, but interest in what IES can offer is clearly gaining traction, and as the manufacturing capacity increases and production begins to scale up then things will certainly improve. The sales figures seen yesterday show what can be accomplished with covid, China lockdowns, supply chain nightmares and goodness knows what else. There are many reasons to believe that things will improve even further as the team continues to execute.
This bit at the end of the RNS may have some spooked:
The Group's need to secure receipts from the exercise of the warrants or through winning new contracts, customers or additional funding creates a material uncertainty that casts significant doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern. The financial statements do not include the adjustments that would result if the Group were unable to continue as a going concern.
There are no page numbers on there but it is towards the end of the CFO’s section. Now these ‘going concern’ bits are always there and usually doom laden but this does show an underlying uncertainty for these early stage companies. IES is in a strong position though, growing sales, increasing backlog, several projects around the world and a steady increase in size for these, massive increase in production capacity coming up, all underwritten by the slow and certain push for renewables.
Hi SimonV,
It's from this bit at the end of the commercial section:
· Between January 2021 and June 2022, Invinity sold 9.34 MWh of products contributing to a closed sales backlog of £13.8m, the majority of which, if not all, is expected to be delivered during the remainder of 2022.
It's a rudimentary calculation, but the best I can estimate at their income vs sales.