Member Info for richam

Devonwolf, reported shipments to GTP during Q2 sum up to 138t so far. At the same time during Q1 shipments stood at 214t. I 100% share your view it would take a stellar 2nd half of the current quarter to at least match the disappointing Q1 numbers (unless shipments to WBH exploded). The latter is clutching at straws though.

has occurred. This looks like it was going absolutely nowhere.

So my hunch was right on the mark as production was down vs. the preceding quarter as were deliveries to GTP. To add insult to injury deliveries to GTP during the June quarter as reported as of today amount to nil. That's right, folks. Zero! To put it mildly, this does not bode well for Q2 results. I find it astounding how a few days of frost and snow can completely derail a business like this. Now we hear nobody could have expected an event like this. But it has happened before: https://www.sendspace.com/file/2b0zzp so for the better part it is another lame excuse for yet another shortfall.

Yes, these hiccups happen quite frequently. Regarding outlook I'm not optimistic. I believe this plant will never reach nameplate without massive additional capex. In the end (if they did) they probably would have exceeded the original budget by more than 100%. In other words they could have built the plant TWICE for that kind of money. It's impossible to make a reliable revenue prediction as long as production falls way short of nameplate and deliveries can swing wildely from one customer to the other. We've been hinted Wolf delivered below spec product in the past so I accounted for that in my model. Quarter - MTUs producted at Drakelands - MTUs delivered to GTP - MTUs delivered to WBH: [pre] Q4-2016 - 24.390 - 15.612 - 8.778 Q1-2017 - 26.903 - 15.600 - 11.303 Q2-2017 - 30.996 - 16.854 - 14.142 Q3-2017 - 35.601 - 26.908 - 8.693 Q4-2017 - 43.498 - 38.458 - 5.040 Q1-2018 - ??.??? - 25.673 - ??.??? [/pre]17825 Remember it's a model. It's intended to give an idea of what is going on. As one can see, deliveries to WBH need to have increased by 254% to 17.825 MTU in order to make up for the sharp decline in deliveries to GTP just to be on par with Q4. Impossible? Not at all. But how likely is it considering the many unplanned shutdowns during Q1?

It appears LSE is suffering from similar operational difficulties, LOL. After hitting the SEND button an error message is shown. So the user hits the send button again only to see his message being posted twice.

"Longer term there may be a processing tie up with Wolf if the Redmoor Tin/Tungsten mine achieves approval to become operational." ...should Wolf still existent as a going concern at that time.

"Longer term there may be a processing tie up with Wolf if the Redmoor Tin/Tungsten mine achieves approval to become operational." ...should Wolf still existent as a going concern at that time.

As reported, tonnes shipped to GTP are down -33,2% vs. Q4. The Dollar value of the shipments is down -25,9%. Either shipments to WBH have increased by several hundred percent or we are in for another surprise to the downside. From an already dismal level.

As reported, tonnes shipped to GTP are down -33,2% vs. Q4. The Dollar value of the shipments is down -25,9%. Either shipments to WBH have increased by several hundred percent or we are in for another surprise to the downside. From an already dismal level.

No further shipmens occurred. Total tonnes shipped to GTP remain at 389 in Q1 vs. 583 in Q4.

Goodness me, it should have been tonnes.

kt should have been kg.

Shipments to gtp reported as of 15/04/18 sum up to 389kt. Last quarter, shipments reported at the same time (15/01/18) did sum up to 583kt. I'm going to provide end-of-quarter numbers once they become available.

You're going to fall out of your buble bed when numbers are reported and 24/7 output is below your fake 5/7 output. I know that doesn't fit in your head. Like you can't know the 7 day per week nameplate when you know the 5,5 day one. Ask your neighbours 12 year old boy, he can figure it out for you.

That's exactly what it does not mean. The tungsten producing part of the plant has been running 24/7. How do you run production longer than 24/7?

"The increased kiln throughput has fully consumed the previous bagged pre-concentrate inventories ON WEEKENDS." http://www.wolfminerals.com.au/irm/PDF/2367_0/QuarterlyActivitiesReport3MonthsEnded31Dec2017

In fact, this is one of the worst plant startup performances I have ever witnessed, only topped by Icon's tungsten tailings project and the great Windimurra debacle.

Well, even that was too generous. A corrected chart can be found here: https://www.sendspace.com/file/n3mpd1

ProcessgGuy, thank you very much for the links. Very interesting read. To answer your question, it's Type 5! Have a look at Wolf's actual results here: https://www.sendspace.com/file/zly52f

What I gather from your postings is there is no "rabbit" (where did that nonsense come from anyway?) that would save the company unless it succeeds in fixing its primary business, the production of tungsten and tin concentrates. We had a first turnaround attempt named "work plan" that took roughly a year to complete and yielded next to nothing in terms recovery, throughput, and output improvements. We then witnessed a second turnaround attempt named "operating turnaround plan" that has increased these figures to some extent but until now can not be considered a real breakthrough. I understand they are now trialling additional things like "pre-processing" (which I suppose includes ore sorting?) but I don't expect these to result in a breakthrough either. From your experience, Southwesterner, how many projects do you recall that after 30 months of operation produced less than half of what was intended and then got close to nameplate in a rather short period of time (or at all)? I may be wrong but I deem this rather unlikely. Many knowledgeable people were involved in the development of this project yet it keeps performing way below expectations for a prolonged period of time already.