Member Info for Rich62

Just remember that AGM is next Tuesday 20th Pinocchio, so you are running out of time...
You may get in at 85p, I doubt it though.
Perhaps best to buy now at around 100p, rather than hoping to get in lower, then missing a 40% jump on update / contract renewal / new contracts etc.

Quck recap and summary on Shearwater - cyber security and software company

FY results to 31/3/22:
+ Revenue (organic) up 13% to group record of £35.9m
+ Adj. EBITDA up 19% to £4.4m
+ Margin maintained at 12%
+ Adj. profit before tax up 24% to £3.0m
+ No debt
+ Cash £5.6m

For this year:
RNS 13/4/22 - Brookcourt (part of SWG) announced a new contract win with a telecommunications company worth potentially £21.0m. Made up of initial 3 year deal worth £12.9m with option to extend for another 2 years for extra £8.0m,.
On this news the share price rose 30% to 145p.

So how do I feel that share is currently available to buy at 101.5p?
Well disappointed, but it also shows that sentiment rather than value has led to a high proportion of AIM stocks including SWG being battered down by nervous PIs exiting as they are worried about recession, inflation etc.

I've taken the opposite view which is this stock is an absolute bargain and continued to add, including yesterday at 101.5p
SWG (with only 23.8m shares in circulation) is currently valued at £24.16m with cash at end of March of £5.6m and 0 debt). To me this is a p/e of around 6.2x which is ludicrously low for a growing business in cyber security.

However others no doubt such as Pinocchio will hang in the wings making negative comments and try and get in at a lower price. Fair play if you do, but we all see the potential here of a very undervalued stock, that could easily jump another 30-40% in one morning on another big contract win or just decent update on latest performance.

Sometimes you've got to play the long game - if they keep pushing prices up at Primark, the media will crucify them.
However if they absorb as many costs as possible, whilst keeping prices affordable they will be lauded by the media and this will ensure long term customer retention.
Many will also trade down to Primark clothes as the cost of living squeezes discretionary spending.

I've added this morning. Yes, all businesses are in for a rocky 18 months, but I bet my bottom dollar that global food corporation can weather the storm better than most. Put shares away in bottom drawer and come back in 18months.

RNS confirms AGM on Tues 20th Sept at 11am
Hopefully get an AGM statement RNS out first thing.

Pinocchio - more twaddle from you. Its not a badly managed company; just delivered record results with no debt and with approx £5m cash.
The share price just reflects today's market where all AIM share are hammered due to sentiment - private investors cashing in assets to pay for bills etc. Clearly if this was taken over tomorrow it would be worth 200p+
And the reason you hang around here is simply to buy cheap shares, then sell into more good news i.e.contract wins etc.
So stop playing the "disastrous company / poor management" twaddle, it gets very tedious.

Price fairly stable first thing until the algo trades started driving it down again.
No doubt later large buys will appear (posted after the time of buy.....) as the IIs pick up cheap shares from worried private investors. Share price is now at nearly 50% discount to the market price, just a few weeks ago when excellent results were announced. Bargain for the brave. Going to add more if they drive below 80p.

RNS Reach - a major telecoms business have renewed contract worth over £980k with Shearwater for the coming year.

Unfortunately can't read the link without a subscription.
I listened to the Shearwater Investor presentation a few weeks ago and the ex GCHQ Director explained very clearly the threats of cyber security and particularly how this has ramped up with the Russian war on Ukraine. SWG also made it clear that they are recruiting MORE people due to demand for their services in recovering IT systems following cyber attacks. I guess there's lots of similar businesses in this field, all competing against each other - but its a massively growing market and companies, corporations, public service providers will happily pay a high price to keep their IT systems safe and use specialist outfits like SWG to recover their systems after attack.

Share down over 10% at one point this morning - it looks like an II is dumping 25k blocks.
Not seen as news why this is falling?? - I know it was ex special dividend, but seems a bit overdone after recent excellent results and still a 2.9p dividend to come in October.

Down 10% in one day for no apparent reason, until the MMs dropped in a large sell (272k at 82p from around lunchtime) later in the day. Whoever did this must be desperate for cash. Share was around 95-98p prior to sell.
Anyone sensible would have sold in blocks and got a decent price.
Still happy to take advantage and have added more at 85.5p

From Q1 RNS
"The Group intends to publish its Half Year results for six months ended 31 August 2022 on 28 September 2022"
I'd expect to see the shorts reducing prior to the HY results; purely to reduce their risk of being blind sided (and they like to stick together as well for safety, so if a few start to reduce - others will as well)

Its better off managing your own shares rather than buying in a fund - the problem with funds is they can't sell their blocks of shares in a falling market and unfortunately many have paid too much for IPOs,
At least as a PI with smaller holdings, you can get out of poorly performing stocks fairly easily, even AIM.
As to CUBE - obviously with a large short here, all the articles they produce will be propoganda to support their position ie driving fear and panic to get PIs to sell at rock bottom prices so they can scoop them up

We will have to wait for an RNS major holdings declaration to see if there is a large seller.
Some of the IIs are pretty tardy getting these out, so may take a few days.
In the meantime, bargain basement shares for the masses - I'll be amazed if BOO isn't double this price in a years time.

Someone's just dumped 1.27m shares at 45.7p (or conversely you could say that the MMs have been happy to take these at the market price not at a large discount)
Having been watching this like a hawk for a couple of days, its clear that there is a big seller (25k blocks regularly) and until this ceases, the shorters will continue to drive price down hard, despite many decent sized buys.
However I reckon as soon as the big seller finishes, this will move back above 50p again,
Its just a waiting game and the game will turn shortly, in my view.

RFX goes ex dividend on 1st September - pays 2.70p.
Just adds to reasons to buy here - I note the MMs have virtually no shares available this morning at 202p

Yeah, I'm hoping he will buy in small tranches as share price rises - just to keep pushing the price upwards to fair value

CFO buys 5000 shares at 120.45p. Hopefully he is buying in small tranches and this will be the first of many!!

SWG not at 110p yet Pinocchio.
No one knows where this will go next week - one decent contract win at it will shoot back to over 130p.
- Would you feel daft if you waited for 110p and it never came?

469,661 share trade just gone through at 430p (over £2m)
Hopefully share price will start breaking north soon...