Member Info for Ribeye

Nice thread resurrection there Heid.

I like my initial post post back in October....I think its aged like a fine wine that's exceeded expectations, even if I do say so myself.

It puts the gas-to-power figures into context too - forward UK electricity generation is now DOUBLE the £80/MWh I used for calculations at the minimum!

Just seen the swampy post on Facebook about 3-4 tankers per day. That buggers my maths as I have gone for 666 average.

However, if equipment is going in, that might mean temporary well shut in or two to let the plumbers do their thing (I presume its a gas handling issue rather than a well bore workover. The well head is on a restricted choke so that doesn't need upgrading. That might cost a few days production. So somewhere between my guess and Heid's is par I reckon now.

OK, I've run the numbers. I nailed my last guess (21st Feb as the date for the bank balance in the RNS).

I'm going for Friday 1st April as the date of the next bank balance report with the RNS out Monday 4th April. I've accounted for mid price in the high $90s, a small premium to Brent and average production from the well at 666bpd.

The USD is also about 5% stronger against the GBP compared with this time last year as well, so the GBP balance will look even more pretty.

What's your guess?

Has anyone given the Dinantian interval a bit of a frack and prop squeeze?

I suspect that it would prove a damn site more productive than a shale well, and last a bit longer too. We know it 'skins', which for a carbonate formation, isn't that inexplicable.

Avergae baseload in December was £175/MHh....

Average of £100 per hour is £2400 per day.....

The maximum output from the current gas production I've calculated at 3MW with 50% engine efficency.

Just been offerred 22.122p - that's a foot in the door.

Second time at the 22p door......will it open this time.

That's the break even price for anyone still in after the placing who was expecting a quick spivvy buck.

In order to make a material difference in volumes in place (or recoverabilty), comapred with the old CPR, then the more data the better.

The ongoing well data will make the CPR more accurate as time goes on. 5 months without a water cut or noticeable drop in reservoir performance is obviosuly a lot more significant that 3 months. The more oil you can account for as 3P in the Ashover, the greater the book value attributable to the asset n'est pas?

The previous 500bpd aspiration was based on the old CPR wasn't it? If so, it was obviously conservative to a fault.

UJO would probably be interesting in chatting about a rearrangement of interests precentages at Wressle.

I'd be surprised if EDR wanted to get rid of their entirel holding under circumstances and seeing as the income allows them to use some of their tax credits. The income also gives them options in terms of borrowing in the future as well I imagine, which means that placings aren't the only game in town.

Speaking of placings, UJO bought £100,000 worht of EDR at 2p in 2020......now in profit.

LAW over on ADVFN has remebered that UJO bought £100,000 of EDR shares in a place in 2020. It's now in profit....here's the details in the last UJO annual report~:

"The Company is the beneficial owner of 5,000,000 (2019: nil) ordinary shares in Egdon Resources plc (“Egdon”) which
represents a 1.52% (2019: nil) interest in that company at year end. Payment for the new shares acquired was by means
of a subscription at a price of 2 pence per Subscription Share for a total consideration of £100,000. The principal activity
of Egdon is the production and exploration of hydrocarbons onshore UK.
The investment in Egdon was revalued at the year end to the value of £82,500 (1.65 pence per share) with the loss being
recorded in the Statement of Comprehensive Income on page 42."

I was assuming that the electrical grid connection would be required...I've just looked on Google Maps.....and there's what looks like a National Grid pylon.....50m due north of the Wressle site which is itself 2 miles East of the S****horpe Steel works.

It could be a lot worse for distance and infrastructure in that area.

If a gas grid connection is in place, them a site can IMPORT gas from the grid to max the engines at peak price times. Everyone wins because the pay prices can be immense but the grid is stabilised with extra peak power.

That's what Alkane had going at some of the coal mine methane sites.

I doubt Wressle will be connected to the gas grid though.

Hi RNST

The average day ahead baseload price in December was £241.83 per MWh according to Ofgem:

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators

The data the show the price above £100 since last August and 2021 average WELL over £100, which was the conservative figure I used in my example calculations.

I'm confident that a 3MW engine is ballpark, and would still mean some flaring of gas if they open the choke to produce much more than 800bpd.

I haven't looked at the the Pennystone flags discovery RNS results yet.

How about dressing it up with a simple concept of 'the ratio' - when 2 things are in equilibrium occurring in a fixed proportion, more of one means more of the other. Less of one means less of the other.

Could it be any more simple or complicated than that?

How do you explain it?

If 'another flare stack' is going on that pad, then they have more gas to dispose of because they have produced more oil because if they are limited by how much gas they can incinerate, then they are listed in how much oil they can produce.

Or, they are installing gas to power to monetise the otherwise flared gas, which also allows them to produce more oil.

**** me, you're a paranoid idiot aren't you.

I normally post on ADVFN under a different name, which is also my Twitter handle. I used to post on iii as pseudopolylageraemia during the good old Falklands days.

I posted my working out in the hope that someone would explain to me why I'm wrong, because it looks almost too good to be true. However, you don't seem to have anything to say on the maths I laid out. Is that because you don't have any understanding of petroleum geology or engineering or even simple physics?

The key to understanding this is the concept of the 'phase separator'. The fluids in the reservoir are very deep under ground, and at the higher temperature and much higher pressure a mile underground they are a mixture of oil, gas (and water potentially). When the fluid passes the choke the pressure starts to drop and the gas comes out of solution......a bit like when you unscrew the cap on a coke bottle, the pressure crops and CO2 separates into bubbles.......the phase separator sends the liquids (oil+water) and gas in different directions. There is no water in the Wressle fluids yet, the oil/crude is stored in tanks after it is settled to remove particulates, and the gas is being incinerated (aka 'burned') in the flare stacks.

Therefore is you increase the amount of oil you produce at the wellhead through a wider choke, you will increase the amount of gas produced because the phases are in equilibrium in the reservoir. This can change with time as reservoir pressure drops, but all the gas isn't sitting on top of the oil. The 'cap gas' there is is a useful 'pressure drive' for the fluids up the well bore.

Ever heard of a ‘gas to oil ratio’ nine tails, or you a clueless ****wit too?

Look it up. The gas come out of solution as the pressure drops after the wellhead. More oil means more gas.

GCSE physics anyone?

Jesus

Ask your doctor if ‘Not being a ********’ is right for you..

I’m a UJO holder since after the Wressle discovery, and I have in interest in small scale power production and storage having held Alkane plc shares for years until it was bought out and currently hold GSF.

You sound very desperate at the though if anything positive being said about UJO to the point of either pathology or an ulterior motive.

I laid out some simple maths from freely available sources starting with an RNS figure. The pad construction is clearly visible on drone shots doing the rounds. Either critique my maths (if I’m out by a factor of 2 then the numbers are still incredible) or sod off.

"Might be a bigger flare coming in."

If that's true, then the well is producing a massive amount of oil more than you are assuming, because the gas and oil are in proportion and more gas means more oil.

Or, they are doing the obvious (previously announced thing) and monetising an otherwise wasted resource with a small capex that will be recovered from income in a few months.

Which is it? It's probably BOTH in my opinion.

I've just put this on ADVFN. It looks like they are currently laying a concrete pad next to the incinerators at Wressle, which is the logical place to put the gas engine to generate electricity for sale:

If you go back to the RNS of 21st September it states 480,000 cu ft of gas produced per day. If you stick that into this calculator hTTps://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/energy-conversion-calculators.php you can extrapolate to monetisation potential....

480,000cuft = 525,168 MJ = 145.8 MWHr equivalent

Assume 50% gas engine efficiency = 72.9 MWHr per day = 3MWhr per hour

That is well within the normal range for containerised (modular) gas engine instalations: hTTps://www.edina.eu/gas-engines-mwm

Currently forward weekly wholesale electricity proces are £175 per MWh: hTTps://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators
(Obviously you can do clever things with response and tolling too, potentially to capture peak prices)

So (conservatively at a reduced average sale price) 3MW x £100 X 24 = £7200 per day = £2880 net to UJO per day

£20,160 per week

£86,500 per month

£1,051,200 per year

Obviously if the well is producing more than 800 barrels oil per day, it will produce more gas proportionately, so there's upside not accounted for. There will be capital costs for the eqipment (or lease), but the capital value of the engine will remain high for resale if needed, and some operating/marketing costs but these shouldn't be big.

To be honest, I'm a both excited by this, and a little disappointed by the lack of information made available to shareholders about this by the JV. This is potentially highly material near term upside that could be supporting the SP, and could have supported the SP prior to the last disastrous placing.

EDIT: I've just found a quote for a containerised 800kW gas engine delivered for £21k from gogopower.co.uk, so the installation even it costs a few hundred grand will be paid back in weeks/months not years at current sky-high Electricity prices.

If it is, she predicted this Ukraine situation 12 months ago.

So either she's a just worked out the basic principles of supply and demand of oil as a price discovery mechanism, or she's a clairvoyant genius that we should worship.

Which is it mate?