Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Cathal suggested yesterday that the current cash would be used to grow the value of the company.
With all companies in life sciences currently at ridiculously low valuations, could it be that we’re in the process of acquiring a company that will support us increasing our Phase 1 and 2 testing capabilities as these were suggested yesterday as being new services which we wish to expand upon?
You have a fair point and based on the current financials the expected net income for 2021 which will be (c£1m), OO is over priced even at 12p. Therefore, anyone selling is because they are focused on 2021 financials and are not aware/do not believe that the £50m for 2022 are already booked and profitability will increase as a result.
Once fixed costs are covered, profit increases rapidly in the case of OO, therefore, £50m will IMO easily result in £5m net income which will value the company north of c30p.
In summary, shareholders who do not believe Cathals estimates on projected 2022 revenue should sell as this is overpriced at current profit, otherwise I suggest you hold and will be rewarded if OO has a revenue of c£50m in 2022 and increases its profits.
Re Spin-offs, why would any OO shareholders want Disease in Motion to IPO in a bear market when the overall AIM Index is already down 15% YTD?
Let the worthless COVID stocks disappear so that investors can see the wood for the trees and the market returns to fair valuations before we IPO anything or this will have a negative impact on OO SP if Disease in Motion is a failure IMO.
RF
Save this message ;)
The share price will significantly increase (x2) in the weeks prior to the 2021 full year results being released (mid-June) as these will confirm that EBITDA for 2022 will be c£7m and net income will be c£5m which will push the share price north to consolidate around 30p which will result in a PE ratio of c45x (ERGO currently trading at a PE 45x and so are other CROs). Furthermore, some of the macro uncertainty will be over and Cathal will ramp up the PR.
Any news on Malaria or COVID19 challenge studies will drive the SP significantly higher than 30p.
Hold on to your shares until the results are announced and thank me later :)
RF
Good interview by Adrian Wildfire on proactive.
He is highly regarded by the scientific community and has good industry experience coming from SGS. Would certainly be more respected amongst IIs than Cathal as he has more credibility and experience in the CRO sector.
Maybe the new org structure will include Adrian as the CEO, Cathal as the Chairman and Andrew Catchpole as Chief Scientific Officer. A strong well-rounded team.
“As part of the deal, Mubadala, one of Abu Dhabi’s most active state funds, will pump £800m into the life sciences sector over five years alongside £200m from a British government fund.”
https://on.ft.com/3rjruRH
Did anyone manage to get a ticket for today’s workshop? If so, can you please provide an update after the session as I’m keen to understand whether the US are looking to enter the CHIM business and whether ORPH/ hVIVO is mentioned.
Thanks
RF
I also imagine it’ll be the latter. However, I can’t see how attracting institutional investors to fund the Phase 3 trials will decrease the share price. Whilst it might decrease our ownership, without the funding the spin-off would be worthless.
Does anyone know how the Special Dividend in shares would impact investors from a tax perspective as I’m not sure whether it’d be treated in the same way as scrip dividends are (e.g. in exactly the same way as if the dividend was paid as cash) which would be a big tax bill or whether it’s just treated as Capital Gains once these are sold??
Assuming that you’re maxed out on the £20k that you can invest in a Stocks & Shares ISA, does anyone know whether if you receive shares through a Special Dividend (as it might in the case of Disease in Motion) whether these shares will be tax free assuming that you sold them?
Thanks in advance
RF
Cathal mentioned that the intention was to start an RSV study in the new facility by end of Jan. I don’t think you could convert this into an air tight facility without spending millions...
It’s the original thread from when the new screening facilities were announced. I was questioning whether the new screening facilities would add any value or just increase operational costs. However, seems like these could enable Open Orphan to offer COVID tests directly to retail customers.
I think I spoke to soon here... I imagine that we might be offering COVID-19 tests directly to retail customers through our new screening facilities and not just to corporates ;)
Northseatiger1,
It’s Maurice’s LinkedIn not Twitter.
Hi Sportstrader,
Where did you get the cost per test from as it’s not in Maurice’s original post on LinkedIn?
Sorry submitted twice by mistake.
Seen your response - makes sense thanks.
Sportstrader - it’d be great if you could share the response you received. Thanks.
Sportstrader - it’d be great if you could share the response from Open Orphan.
Looks like an expensive way of screening volunteers. Any thoughts on how this going to increase revenue in a fully booked quarantine unit?
PadRock,
That wouldn’t make sense as hVIVO (Woodford) invested millions in further developing these assets after acquiring part of them.
Also, ConserVBio will at present not hold any ORPH assets as Shareholders would need to be notified via an RNS prior to putting part of its assets into another company. I imagine ConserVBio is currently a shell company without any assets despite whatever their website says, until this is notified to shareholders ofc.
Great research all.
Some have suggested on ADVFN that Seek may just have re-branded their assets under this new company as it seems to be fully owned by Seek and this will remain private. However:
1) Seek's business strategy is: "...to spin out companies when they reach a certain stage of development allowing them to access EXTERNAL funding for growth." which aligns to Open Orphan's strategy to monetise these assets.
2) Whilst ConserVBio have listed Seek's address on their website (The Walbrook Building, 25 Walbrook, London EC4N 8AF), their LinkedIn has a new address (77 Heyford Park, Bicester, GB) which suggests that they are renting new lab space in order to expand.
Finally, the following article highlights how keen the US are to obtain a universal flu vaccine which proves that FLU-V alone may be worth billions listed on NASDAQ as the world prepares for the next pandemic. GLA.
https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/218/3/347/4904047