Member Info for Resistance1

Why are we raking old coals again. Shore have had a relationship with BATM since their IPO back in 1996. Their reports on this house stock are never overtly bullish and can be more reasonably considered understated. No share price forecasts are ever made, just forward looking guidance. Any commentary given in 2019 looking back from the SP peak of July 2020 would have looked extremely conservative in fact. No analyst would ever be inclined to guild the lily in the interests of one of their non-exec's. IMHO.

With SP stagnation comes frustration and gives oxygen to wronged ex or current investors. There was a lot of unforced errors the company made over the listing and a slower than expected commercialising of the IP. However the H1's due right at the end of the month are the first under new leadership. In the next 6-months we will also see the further implementation of the strategic plan. A further waiting game I know. We've all come thus far so but I am prepared to wait to see how this positively impacts the valuation.

I flagged a short while back that due to my work with data centers I was aware that the market for ethernet switch equipment to fit them out was booming. Both for re-equipment and for new build sites. IDC who are the specialist IT market researchers (I used to work for them in my first job) have reported huge revenue growth for leading carrier ethernet switch suppliers in the last year:

1. Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increased 63.6% year over year in 4Q22 and rose 55.4% for the full year

2. Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue increased 28.6% in 4Q22 and rose 20.0% on the full year

3. Cisco's Ethernet switch revenues increased 18.4% year over year in 4Q22 and rose 13.4% for the full year

In 2022 Telco boosted their product offering for this audience and must be reaping rich awards. It is a sellers market. I'm hoping we will see this reflected in revenues. In H1 results last year BATM reported that 'Network Edge (Carrier Ethernet) delivery on significant backlog from contracts won in previous years and repeat orders won this year.' So hoping this picture has significantly improved further. H1 2022 revenue was stated as 'Revenue from ongoing operations increased by 44% to $13.1m (H1 2021: $9.1m)' This included Cyber has they don't split it out. Will be keeping a close eye on the coming H1's.

Back in Nutmeg?

The growth potential is unlocking more of the US market. Boohoo currently get a tiny slice of this due to long delivery times. The new facility will put them on par with other retailers and offer far shorter delivery times than Shein. Once greater US sales trickle into a trading update, the SP will rocket. We are still a while away though. This October we will probably see positives from cost cutting, dollar weakening, lower shipping costs and tighter inventory -- they will combine to present much more encouraging figures

The big uptick here will be when the US facility opens. The US customer base starts to enjoy fast delivery times and these are reflected in increased sales in the results. So IMO we are looking at 6-9 months hence when real gains in the SP will be reflected.

"head start is running out" -- The 18-month lead in Edge was announced at last months CMD, so your right they now have a 17-month lead.

I done a bit of background research into the field of edge computing, and competitors for Edgility. Looking to see the contracts they have won and their market cap. I must say information is not easy to find -- most operate in specific vertical markets, farming, retail etc etc. Some operate through third party vendors some direct. There are two direct competitors that operate out of Israel and of course plenty in the US. 50% of the companies are backed by private equity. What is very obvious for all of them is the size of the capital injections they have received to get to a 'point of inflection.' Some 10 times more that BATM's investment of $40m in developing Edge. And they are in the same point, ready for full commercialisation. BATM seems a massive bargain... if they can commercialise.

What has held Edgility back is the lack of a top flight sales and marketing structure. Despite the stated 18-month market lead they have sales have been crumbs from the table so far. It would be good to know what they have in the sales pipeline. Everyone is talking about Edge networking I wonder if the competitors (with less developed offerings) are securing major deals or is the whole area (Edge networks) in its infancy from a commercial viewpoint? I will try and do some desk research to find out but wonder if anyone knows of rivals landing big deals…?

Interesting take. The Government Cyber (encryption) division although profitable and would gain a good price, I didn't think was 'on the market.' Surely Government would probably have to approve the potential buyer too?

Correction medical waste: Celitron not Celare

Yes my thoughts are medical waste (Celare) or the medical distribution units. Both highlighted at the CMD as divisions that will receive 'no further investment.' A clear indicator. Only issue is that the distribution units have been the generator of the lions share of profits over recent years -- and a plug to fill.

Bluerill. I'm going to interpret Nutmegs post for you. After selling his initial holding a few months back at just above breakeven. He then took out a small, low level, short on BATM soon afterwards. He posts suddenly turned negative, hoping for and spreading bad vibes. He probably is worried now that he might lose far more than he originally gained.

Lots of buys today. SP trending upwards. News coming?

Interesting stuff, great background research. Several States are going down this Edge route for 911 services including the largest US state California, and I'm sure they all will over the next couple of years.

It is interesting that Comtech have quite similar turnover to BATM but obv just in the telecoms space. Comtech are loss-making though. Comtech market cap on Nasdaq twice that of BATM.

Looking at BATM LinkedIn the room looks fairly packed at the Gherkin. Have you downloaded the slides? Impressive stuff

The retail event is tonight parsnip at 6pm I'm booked in. Is that what you mean?

Maybe he's bought back in?

This being a contract in a 'major US State' assuming the opportunities are to roll out in the other 49 states and of course internationally. Emergency services contracts are awarded very much on proof of concept. Getting the first contract through the door is the very heavy lift. More will follow.