Member Info for regdik

Sorry TSBS I think one of my post spawned the onset of the oggy/ogs

“Coggy, oggy oggy ogg”

Must be this damp weather bringing out the fog and frogs but the only thing damp that will bring Coggy out comes pint size.

Anyhow welcome to the newbies

Coggy is a northerner with ice in his veins. Spent a lifetime combing the beaches for coal dust to keep his family warm (a northern thing anything for free). Saved a fortune but too much radiation from the Sellafield power station dulled the brain and led him to a path of gambling on AIM and in particular a small O&G outfit in Georgia.
Trials and tribulations followed and despite a few follicles and teeth issues he soon became a leader of fellow dullards (FoF) of fellow mentally impaired investors. Made many friend (inc one or two from darn south) and despite a wobble or two (not around the middle) he is the man we know and (I was going to say love but that’s not a northern thing) like a little bit

So all I can say is Coggy...oggy...oggy.....ogg.

I've no need to think about it as long as he keeps his "be my mate" payments up

ODR on this case I agree with TSBS as I think that the outcome would be uncertain.
If he thought he/FRR were in a losing position he would have been more cutting and direct with his comment on the treatment of FRR from GG.as he had nothing left to lose. The open and approachable stance I agree left the door open to a conciliation with GG. He knows politics and has keep the door ajar.

To me he did not want to burn bridges but showed statesmanship in the interview but we all have our own opinions and for once I hope TSBS is correct :-)

Looed keep on posting all you find (et all) it is up to the individual to decide what is (or not) the truth based on as many inputs a they can fined. Truth is the first causality in a propaganda war and this is a political fight over the freedom/control of a region between two/three super powers (don’t forget China). All sides will pump their views as the total truth and all others are telling lies or fooling themselves (sound familiar). What you should never disregard your common sense (very hard for some posters on here) and take everything with a view that they may/will be an alternative agenda.
This is where the BB’s can come into their own as folk can discuss what is found/posted and then decide what they believe or what is more likely based on history and current information.
As some have said many times there is nothing we can do until this current situation is finalised (arbitration or other) and results are officially published.
FRR are front and centre in this propaganda war and although no matter how many issues we find out about GG and their backers the Arbitration judges will base their judgement on law and not political feelings. However, based on ZaZa interview I’m sure Gov interference/support will feature as a reason for any none compliance in the PSA plus I’m sure his friends in high places (GG/US) would have helped with information as FRR success with help damage the Georgian Dream party Government.

HaHa WIFI not wife they I agree are vry expensive to run....

The super sleuth

Who are these keyboard warriors searching the world wide web for news and titbits of information that we mere mortals can only dream of emulating.
Are they human (not sure about Bugsy) or advanced AI beings that never stop pounding away on there key boards or are they directly mind linked to a quantum computer conversing all day in noughts and ones. No firewall would be safe no network secure to these hero’s of the FRR BB’s. Dressed in black these digital super sleuths never sleep but devoted to keeping the BB’s up to date with short slaying news. There only break these hero take strangely linked to pub opening hours (only those with free wife as life as a super sleuth can be expensive).
Their only reward will be the host of free pints bought for them at the 1,2,5, 10p.... party from their adoring BB fans who will only then find out their true identity. Will they be adonises sent from the gods of data or Fred, Bert, Denis (always full of wind) or Doris from the local chip shop (those that remember C5).
I have met some of them they are great people and we are lucky to have them as felloe SH’s.
Just a bit of Sunday fun GLA

It’s always positive to get information that helps fill in the gaps and supports some of the reasons why FRR acted as they did the last few years. However, like all things you have to take what ZaZa said as being ultra supportive of the FRR case (as GG will do the same for theirs). Somewhere between will be the case built on actual facts (not assumptions) around what the Arbitration is looking at. There seems to be a number of point that require a ruling and some will be straightforward (PSA says this you did that (both sides)) and some will be less clear cut. Based on what ZaZa has said I think that we will be looked on favourably on some counts but fail on others. I think the previous Energy minister claims that FRR had nothing will help our case (if the NSA figures are accepted by the arbitration board) as this substantiates FRR claim of no support only interference from GG. The 3.5Bil claim will not have been picked out of the air as a random number and will be based as measurable lost income from restricting drilling operations plus the revenue from a Buy-in/out yet again supported by BH/BP news.
The 80/90mil claim is a strange one as I can’t recall anything in the PSA that would relate to this number (Star here is your chance to point to the wording).
How this will pan out is up to the judges but the support FRR have had then a negative result will reverberate around US political circles and will not be good for Georgia (US hate losing).
If (and a big if) we come out of this with something substantial then I cannot see a future in Georgia while thee Dream party are in power so I think they sell up to a major to develop what they are left with and move on to Moldova. BP are big in Georgia only for the billions spent on the Pipeline and only have small operations otherwise. BP’s Ms Davies appointment (drilling and field operation skill) would not be the round peg in a round hole for this job so I expect BP will be looking do expand in Georgia but will be looking to be squeaky clean (got their fingers burnt with GKN) who they partner with.
I cannot see FRR relisting if they come out of all this with something unless they get a blue chip partner on board that will take away the financial risk.
Happy with the fact FRR have broke their radio silence and I would expect more information to leak out – this could be Game Over soon but in a more positive way than some expect.

Private companies are owned by their shareholders. Even Cayman registered companies have R&R to follow. Which Frontera company owns B12 is under debate and may be challenged by Hope. But ownership will have to be clearly laid out before the Arbitration judges and will have to a direct linkage back to the to the PSA or the case would be thrown out. This linkage ties all SH together so I take comfort that SN/ZaZa could not as indicated by others take the company as their own. They own around 20% of the company and known PI’s about the same so a large % is in other hands and as indicated by previous documents these could be sleeping giants using a front company to establish Georgia’s O&G viability in as we know is a politically sensitive area (front...era)
I doubt a few thousand $ donations would prompt the US political machine into the action we see but if you have big oil in the background that would be a whole different ball game.
Just Friday musing but good to see news coming out now from all sides.

I find this fascinating and intriguing what is playing out now. Hats off to ZaZa for coming out and putting FRR case on Georgian TV. The case on both sides have been presented and unless a settlement is forthcoming then its up to the arbitration board to settle this. To both sides this is a throw of the dice and therefore high risk to both.
US heavily backing Georgian democracy and using FRR as a sledge hammer to crack a nut and knocking back the Dream team but not eliminating them as this would b a step too far for their backers.
Why does ZaZa go public now when nothing can be done to influence the judgement (based on historical fact on performance alighted to PSA ).
Is he setting up ready for an appeal of a judgement or appeasing the Georgian people that FRR is not all bad and the future of Georgia is base on what’s under B12 and that FRR has the backing to deliver (in association with GG 50/50 deal if they will take it)
High stakes game at a global Governmental political level and this will be written up in history.
This is way above our pay grade so sit back and watch it play out.

ERR = FRR fat fingers on the mobile and rushing between golf hole......

Personally I doubted very much oil was produced this year as FRR battered down the hatches and probably had no intensions of making it easy for the GG if they were going to grab the block. With no ancillary workers the volume that could be distributed would have been minimal (probably to keep space in the storage tanks for the old producing wells) which fits with the attempt by the strikers to block and rail distribution.
ERR inherited a lot of old well and their remit was prospecting and collecting data not production (enough evidence of that) and not seek commerciality until all of the seismic work was complete (some seem to forget that). 60mil may not sound much but don’t forget that a lot of this would have been during the oil price depression period.
Some on the BB find it hard not to accept others views and seem to enjoy point to flaws (but forgetting their own)

But a big star and well done looed great find. First FRR statement in a year so the period of silence has been broken I just hope that the fat lady has forgotten the words to her song.

Hi Guys
My objection of setting up a private area will prevent the silent majority who read the board (but do not post) from reading/following what our super detectives unearthing. This LSE board has been a haven foe some and without some of the top posters will become another wasteland inhabited by the unclean just like that other board.
I will continue to comment and post on this board.

I seem to recall that over the last 3 years FRR were sheading staff. Look at the report from Mole on his visit that the Houston office was like a ghost ship and most of the Geologists had left as FRR were moving the back operation to Georgia. At the time were discussing a cost reduction plan and ploughing the money into there drilling programme. I agree with brgmg that the local staff will not have the well head skills but will be used as ancillary staff. Most drilling teams are sub contractors as once a well is drilled the rig is of no vale to ongoing operation. Hence this indicates that these locals were either supporting the drilling teams as subs/contractors or used as oil collection/distribution guys (lower skill). BH guys will be the management and manage and monitor the drilling teams. I would not put to much into their involvement as soon as the block dispute started I’m sure that any BH involvement would be down scaled if not stopped.
So looking at the trending over this period we see FRR deskilling which coincides with the large share sell-offs and the difficulty of raising cash on the market. FRR actively looking for funding/JV support as demonstrated by court papers (BP) and BH involvement. To do this they would need a product to sell – yet again you could see that arbitration action shows that we have a product in the ground (or why spend 6Mil on Lawyers).
What surprised me is that the main focus is the workers (I do hope they eventually get paid) and not the main reason of the arbitration. This workers focus to me is a PR action to damage FRR and deflect the US focus on GG backslidings on their election promises. The fact FRR are being used as an example indicates to me that we have a reasonable case – US are not stupid and would have the relevant information checked prior going to print. I’m sure FRR are not squawky clean in all this but they have battened down the hatches so they are either going for the damages against GG or selling off the licences if arbitration is successfully resolved.
Both sides will soon play their final hand (arbitration final submission) so not long to wait or will a deal be struck prior to this.

Hummm to "sum" up you think that those that post here are not aware of the sate that FRR are in and that a major would not touch FRR with a barge pole
I fully agree as no one knows what is going on in the background (good or bad) and that the majors have no interest in FRR but B12 if a difference matter. What FRR are fighting for is the licence that they can sell or let other develop and receive a % of production/sales. The workers not being paid is putting FRR in the limelight and therefore GG can't just brush this away. It is in the public eye and therefore has highlighted the Arbitration process. If you feel you were being shafted wouldn't you do anything to help you balance the scales such as seeking help from the US Gov, keeping the issue from being swept under the table and ensuring that the actions of others have caused some of todays issues.
No press is bad press in this case as the Arbitration will be judged on all of the facts and not what a reporter posts

Gipps I have to disagree that the Liquidator (Cayman company) would want to set up in a Foreign land with little or no experience of O&S operations and access to market. This would take up many months to set up fill with management they trust. Plus they would need to pay the workers all their back pay first. This goes against their mandate of liquidation (selling asset to pay back creditors. So you are asking a company based on lawyers and bailiffs to run a O&G company!!!! will never happen they wanted the asset to sell but have found most of it has gone with little or no chance of recovery as they would need to win a case in Georgia against a Government that wants it more than they do.

There are a lot of thing w don’t know such as which of the FRR companies were responsible for paying the 84 workers/contractors. I suspect the company in liquidation is accountable and if that is the case the liquidators will see the workers as a creditor and therefore have to wait in line (after OMF and their fees). The liquidators are not administrators and would not be interested in continuing production as they would have to incur additional costs of setting up a group to run the company.
Additionally if you want to blacken (even more) the FRR brand and dry up any access to funds what better way than using the workers as a tool and as a back up use the distribution route as an issue to prevent oil reaching the refinery and therefore starve thee company of funds. Funds that they would need to fight all of the CC and arbitration case.
So we have the optic of a US company hurting the Georgian workers (Liquidated company is seen as a US company) therefore giving the GG a rallying point against the US and their interference in Georgian affairs.
SB mail highlights what the US Gov would already know about who is running the show In Georgia and I’m sure that the CIA would have done their due diligence on the situation regarding the complex FRR situation prior to high powered backing of senior politicians.
What we do know FRR are still defying logic as to not being dead and buried so hats off to the BoD.
They must have a strong case as the Georgian rhetoric is ramping up (as are the number of paid PR funded de-rampers on the BB – in my view now not all of the new posters are holding shorts but are paid to put out a party line on message/facebook boards).
Power and money corrupt and if you have an opportunity to take more they will. So if the a little O&G company have hit the jackpot you would want in (if not take all).
This is political and our future depends on how the US want to play this but I sure that a crumb will be thrown our way as a minimum.

Very reasoned post
As in all things each side will take a polar view and somewhere in-between will be closer to the real solution/answer. the fact that GG did not just take the block and offered FRR the small area they were producing from indicates to me that their case is open to interpretation and not a dead cert. FRR can show that they too offered a 50/50 share indicates that FRR have also a risky case. What will the Arbitrators say (if it gets that far) based on what is going on now will be part of the judgement.
Unfortunately this could go on years if FRR/GG appeal the judgement/s (they will be a number of points that would require a ruling). At this point the escalation from the US will help in my view as sanctions will cause the Georgian people hardship and with an election on the horizon even the Dream party will see this as a nightmare.
One is thing for sure if FRR walk out with something from this they will not be welcome in Georgia and I think they will have to sell their asset.
As some one said we will have to sit and wait and continue to search for clues.

remember that the active sides (gas plant and producing wells) will need constant attention.
Therefore, just on a HSE level GG would have to step in and provide operational support or the gas to several villages would have to be switched off (in winter?). Do not read too much into this.

it seems that the US are raising the anti and not backing down.

I think that some in high places in the US are using FRR as a battering ram. If the GG blink then I think a mutual settlement will be on the cards