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I have visions of blue for tomorrow. I had this dream where colours had been inverted and this enormous bull with SEED branded to its flank was chasing after a big blue cape... (maybe Matador was even there??) and suddenly the cape become a big blue kite and the bull started chasing after it vertically.
But, when it comes to the numbers... what are people's guess at tomorrow's movement? I'll get the ball rolling with a close tomorrow of 14.4p. This is not based on any more information or expertise than Meg had herself.
https://i.redd.it/xzquavkbjyq01.jpg
Yep yep - I'm doing my very best to clear out that pesky seller myself!! I know none of us should express firm views on the future, but with SP appearing to be so far below NAV, the risks are definitely reduced. Of course, thanks to Seaview for the responsibility-reminder, but my buys today have been from consolidating my holdings in mining/excavation companies I've made a profit on. I'll be pretty displeased if SEED falls off a cliff, but I won't be destitute!
And remember, if this all comes off, Mum says she'll take us all to the cinema and we can go to Pizza Hut after!!
Same, Bluhope. 20%. Except I'm skint after topping up some others. I'm now selling long-term positions in stocks I like and want to hang onto, because it seems like the lesser of two evils. Silly not to lower our averages, when there's "almost certainly" a blue light at the end of the tunnel.
Another £2k top up. I sold a few teeny holdings in Zinnwald Lithium and Kodal Minerals that had been doing really well. I'm not sure I did it purely objectively. I think I'm sort of falling in love with SEED. But that's normal, right? And I'm pretty sure it was definitely a good idea... Definitely a good idea.
Thanks for your patience, Prof.
So... if market cap of CCL is ~ $25bn and WorldQuant took a short of 0.88% (i.e. $220m) on 26th July... and the SP has since dropped by 3%, so in theory they'd currently be $66k in the money (if it weren't for sleeving fees etc.)
Whereas, DE Shaw, who took out a short on 21st July, (just before all the announcements about UK re-opening cruise lines), is currently $216k underwater...?
Ah, sorry, now you see that didn't help at ALL! When I say I understand CfDs... I mean I've read John C Hull's tome on how the stock market works - it's the vernacular I don't get. So, when you click on LSE's icon for short positions, and one of them is shown as up, and the other is shown as down... presumably that means someone's in the money and someone isn't. I was just curious as to whether those numbery-bits allow those in the know to see at what SP these people's fortunes change.
Fund % Short Change Date Changed
WorldQuant LLC 0.88 -0.03% 26 Jul 2021
D. E. Shaw & Co. LP 0.72 0.12% 21 Jul 2021
Total 1.60%
I just bloody love this share! I've only got a few grand in it, because it was a bit of a punt. I'd seen someone else on another BB asking about a pure copper play, and they'd been recommended PXC. When I had a quick look, it seemed worthy of a flutter. As things picked up, I looked up more info and threw a few more quid in. I wish I had more, but it's just such a HAPPY little share that there's no complaints. I do think of it as Pixie, not Phoenix, though - because of the ticker. A lovely little pixie.
...well, not good news for those people with massive shorts on, right? Full disclosure, I'm not invested here, I've just watched for the past few weeks as travel restrictions are lifted... and took particular interest as it was on a list of stocks that had short trades of over 0.5% of company stock in place, (I think?!) Maybe it's a bit sadistic, but I was expecting the SP to rise on a stock that had people betting against it. Thought it'd be fun to see what happened, (though not an industry I'd invest in).
Can anyone explain to me which of the two shorts listed on LSE is in the money and which is out... and what the value of that would be if settled today. I understand CfDs in theory, but am not familiar with how they're reported publicly when sizeable.
Wow - neither of you saw SEED...? Good luck, of course, you'll both do well IMHO, although she will beat you!!
(and SEED will still be there, just much more expensive to buy in to)
It's a buy....! (Yep yep, the 8.545 is Halifax Bid.) Thanks all, esp barwickman, for holding back on the bull run until I got some cash in this morning. Just a £1k top up today, but I've got another invoice to raise at month end, so if we can stretch the total lack of SP movement just one more week...? Please...??
Thank you Suarez, I take pride in how often I'm recognised as a puny person. (And Suarez... please don't bite my head off...)
Carry, I am in total ore of your knowledge. My expertise is more around cheap puns, but there are so few Christmas cracker companies listed, these days...
I'm sorry I missed your post and you had to repeat it. (It was on a Sunday, if that's any excuse...!) Thank you for doing so, though. For now, I might keep telling myself the simpler - if less correct - version, "the higher grade stuff is underneath", but that's not to dismiss your logical and logistical tour de force with the detailed operations... which many, including myself, will find enlightening and reassuring. If I had a big pit of mud, metal and minerals that needed mining, you'd have first refusal for sure!
Very quiet on here today, and it's been a little while since I've irritated everyone with irrelevant posts, so I had a quick look for poems about us, and - personally - think I came up trumps. Link below to the full heroic ode, but I felt the pertinent part was this:
And shall the boastful Chief maintain his word,
Though Heaven hath heard the wailings of the land,
Though Lusitania whet her vengeful sword,
Though Britons arm, and Wellington command!
No! grim Busaco's IRON RIDGE shall stand
An adamantine barrier to his force!
And from its base shall wheel his shattered band,
As from the unshaken rock the torrent hoarse
Bears off its broken waves and seeks a devious course.
Seemed fitting, right? (Please don't kick me out!)
http://spenserians.cath.vt.edu/TextRecord.php?&action=GET&textsid=35779
Thank you Carry! Superb answer. I'm pleased that I wasn't too far out with the c. $90m towards end of 2022, but I had not considered the areas they would be mining and that we do have an idea of the grade. (I obviously know that copious studies are carried out, but for some reason when I see the results in the financial statements, I think "ooh, that was a lucky bit of digging", which is totally irrational of me...! Noted for the future.
I also hadn't clocked that the 15% on mezzanine drops to 7% after senior debt is paid off, (and quite bloody right too!) hence my comment about WACC increasing as we clear down debts. I mentioned it because it seemed so counter intuitive - thanks for clearing that one up. So, with a bit of luck on gold prices as well, this is pretty manageable. (Ahem! And, of course, a bit of luck with what grade of areas we excavate... which isn't luck.)
I'm sure there's an obvious answer to this, but if the mezzanine interest rate drops once senior debt is settled, shouldn't we be hitting the highest grade areas first - so as to minimise accrued interest. (I suspect the answer involves geology such as "the higher grade stuff is underneath"... which is probably apparent to any minor, let alone miner.) Thank you for great info.
David - I only looked quickly at the last full accounts, and the notes on debt. To be honest, I didn't fully get it, but at a glance I thought (and this isn't to contradict what you've just said) -
- senior debt gets paid first; there was c. £60m senior debt at beginning of 2021, with £30m principal to be paid in 2021.
- it is the senior debt at 7%, the mezzanine at 15%... so our WACC will actually go up as we pay down our debts (!)
- our current free cash flows allow for repayment of c. £30m pa (with buffer of £5m)
- non-current debt is about £100m, with £30m of that being the senior debt at 7% (paid first, hence gone by end of 2022)
- we'll irritatingly accrue about £22m of interest on the mezzanine debt during 2021 and 2022 before we can pay it down
- if cash flows remained the same, we'd then have £90m of mezzanine debt at 15% at beginning of 2023, paying off c. £30m pa, so... call it four years from then (too lazy to do the maths precisely)
- BUT THE SAVING GRACE is that our cash flows will improve with the price of gold, and the reduction of extraordinary overheads.
Apologies if I've made major gaffes there, or misunderstood. This was at a glance.
Mr Stork, I don't like to see the abuse you seem to get on this BB, so don't take this as my jumping on a bullying bandwagon, but... you've posted that report twice now. I can read - just. I can do some of the numbers (I'm better with the odd ones than the even ones), and I liked the minimalist pictures. But... I can't see how some self-acknowledged scant and dated data from South Africa is hugely relevant to a discount that should be applied to EUA's superior quality product, ideally located near processing facilities and run by a team of absolute pro's, who have even ensured the Russian government have agreed their "share" in advance, rather than dipping in later.
From pages 33-35, as recommended:
"Finally, although there is anecdotal visual evidence of the equity markets discounting future
exploration success, given the number of data points in the population, this could not be said to be
statistically significant), although, in the case of PGMs, it may be that the relationship is linear (as in
2017), rather than the more commonly observed inverted relationship. However, the consolation of
this is that it may then be possible for managements to add value to junior PGM exploration
companies by increasing their resources if conducted at an appropriate cost.
No multiple regression analysis was performed for PGM juniors in 2018 – not least owing to the
paucity of available data. Nevertheless, we hope to add this in future years. "
Dunno - but I wouldn't set a huge amount of store in that. I do generally like Storks, though. GLA.
I feel like SEED is going to take off at any damned minute, and I'm maxed out on my overdraft and get paid tomorrow.
So just as a personal favour, please could nobody buy any shares today. We can all get in tomorrow, then fly higher than a rocket containing Musk, McDermott and Howard Marks... but I may cry if the market cottons on today to the potential here!!