Member Info for redwineday

shorters

I don’t see the manipulation. Sure could be shifters below the disclosure threshold but enough? I doubt it. Plain fact here is there are no buyers. Probably only the PIs on this board. The market isn’t interested and doesn’t see the value. Even the BOD aren’t buyers!

FTSE is up 2.5% and this dog 1.5. For a small cap on a day like today it’s miserable.

BOD really to need make a signal in the FY results statement to get some movement here to reflect the underlying value in this company. If it passes with nothing said or some drivel about looking after all all stakeholders yadda yadda then Ill be taking that as a signal. As a shareholder here i feel more unloved than the frog they have on their website. WTF..

You could take pin and stick it into a list of the FTSE all share index and get the same or better result. Today we have companies where they have zero revenue and are still outperforming GEMD.

Something is wrong here.

At time of writing there has been 6k trades in GEMD and 56k in the basket case that is PDL. Look the cash, asset stability etc etc between the 2 of them and sleepy GEMD snoozes on.

Dave, with all due respect mate, you have been saying this for months. Time to open the eyes. Zero interest and share price simply marooned. No buyers equal nothing happening.

I have to admit I am starting to think I got this wrong. This is marooned with a complete lack of interest for the market. Cant see what can shake to other than cap total returns which as others have said seems unlikely.

why would any II invest in this? answers on a postcard

1. Upside diamond price is recovering. Long term outlook is positive for prices/demand.
2. Post completion it will have a healthier although still with a debt heavy BS. But presumably the institutions who signed up to this believe it can pay the debt interest from FCF.

Downside.

1. Very complex and dilutive restructuring. No one on here can possibly say what the SP will be on completion. One can speculate it's already in the price. Maybe. But the truth is no one knows and if it's not then the price drop could be savage.
2. On top of the dilution the volatility on completion will be high. Some of the debt investors forced in to the swap will dump the stock either immediately or over a period of time. Selling could go on for some time or worse the new debt investors will sell the debt and or short the stock (a la PMO) to cover themselves on the risk to the debt
3. Shareholder returns will be way down the list of priorities for the BOD. Keeping the wolves from the door will be the priority.
4. Human rights abusues - this is not a concern as far as I can see. Worst case the mine gets nationalised. Given they have already it on a care and maintained status because it doesn't make money it would be an impairment but not impact on profit. Petra already wrote off the money owed. Any compensation would be relatively small. Reputation could be a risk but it would pass quickly.

So IMO odds here are not good and really if you put money in here before the completion admit its its an out and out punt.

Wait till late tomorrow . MMs are playing with this, for whatever reason. I think its back to sleep here until a few more rocks are pulled out or FY results commit to Shareholder returns.

Sustainable, Aberforth and Lansdowne all averaging in the 80's

And I agree someone is buggering around here

Sustainable average price is 80 odd. Can't see them bailing at this price when the future looks better than for a while.

More likely explanation is the one mentioned by a few people including me is the doubt or disbelief based on history that shareholders will have cash returned. However I am still a holder as eventually assuming the market continues to recover the cash on the balance sheet will cause a re-rate or a bid will come .

On cash returns I think they have no option now. II’s will be pressing for sure. With this amount of cash on the BS they will become a target unless they can get the SP up.

One third of the cash allocated to shareholders should not be unreasonable. On a PE of 20 gives you £1 SP.

Great result. Cash in hand now equivalent to 34% of yesterday’s market cap.

Sounds like Total have given TLW until June to p or get off the pot

One of those big rocks returned to shareholders as a divi payment would see this at £1 on a reasonable P/E. Could happen this year IMO

spread....

MMs are holding it back. 10% speed on HL now. Could be a real squeeze tomorrow if they need to buy stock sharpish.

Finally the breakout?

Any significant news tomorrow could see this move up markedly.