Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thats a relief! Should limit any further down side from here. Looking forward to a better 2024....
*points not pints, although as an S4 holder some alcohol might be required
This is a 3 yr turnaround minimum, Global Economy needs to pass through the current geo political volatility and US elections, SMS needs to get the act together on margins, which it looks like he is doing via the headcount cuts and forecasting needs to become far more reliable. On the last 2 pints if they can demonstrate this over then it only leaves the macro picture to improve.
Not looking forward to Monday but whatever, there is no point for anyone in here at a much higher price (me!) to bail out now on one days news or price action. A lot of patience is required...
I agree. It's a risky punt until the Q3 statement. I would expect some forecast kitchen sinking to come.
The fact that we have to make an assumption isn't great comms, however that would be my reading although there is also n mention of the level of debt or net debt/cash. I know AA likes to minimise the blah blah but nevertheless either say something or say nothing!
Fascinating insight
Starting to look scary again!
Couldn't watch it to the end. Blah blah...She should have asked what he is doing about the disaster that is this SP.
How much of the selling price will end up going to shareholders? Look at past years when the market and run of finds and see the results. The cash seems to disappear into the ether. The market knows this, hence no SP movement...
I noticed the STX major shareholder listing has been updated today. If I am not wrong then it's the same level of holdings as last month and Jupiter unchanged. V strange...
I can't see him stepping back. Ego and legacy and lets face it the amount he has invested here, Maybe he can move to non exec chair at some point when the business is back in growth mode and the SP/ market cap is at a level where he can say I did it.
The second point is who would succeed him. I'd wager whoever that person is we haven't seen him or her yet. My bet would be an outsider with the right corporate pedigree and not client side like Ter Haar. This position is about the city, investors, strategy/capital allocation and P&L management.
He has always been the globetrotting Davos man type so I don't think that in itself is a change of behaviour. Don't disagree with your last sentence though.
Yep, the market has already written this year off so if they can sound even cautiously optimistic then we can hope for a positive impact on the SP.
I have come to terms with the fact that I'm here until 2025 or 2026 before seeing a profit...
In the Times article he did say this....
"However the good news is that clients are less cautious: this time last year, most were worried about interest rates going up; now they’re focused on them coming down"
Another way to look at it is WPP down 20% YoY. SFOR down 77%. So market effect 20% ish. S4 effect 55% ish.
Poncing!!
Indeed if he would rather be pouncing about in Davos then he should move over and let someone else manage it.
Exactly. Even if you take worst case view of 2024 or 2025 earning you get a valuation that is twice this level. According to the FT the median analyst 12 monthforecast is 90p. The gap is IMHO down to shooting themselves in the foot or put another way people issues. And thats down to SMS. Less time spent poncing about in Davos and more time managing his business would be a start.
Clearspot
IMO the co is un-investable of that reason alone (and there are others). GEM doesn't have the cashflow to support future investment therefore debt will be used and then you are into the hell that PDL got themselves into over the past years.
They need a great deal of luck in terms of a run of finding stones like this mornings and a recovery in prices and demand.
In the lap of the gods in other words and all of that before one questions the management incentives and non controlling interests at this company.
IMHO the reason this company is sill listed is to use the listing as a means to fund capital requirements at the expense of shareholders.
I hope all the Co CEO’s, EVP’’s, SVP’s in charge of whatever are earning their no doubt significant salary’s. For a 9k employee heading count there seems to be an awful lot of them.