RE: Will tomorrow's drop be greater than the dividend18 Dec 2022 20:10
There is a cycle price movement every year. The top is somewhere in between the end of December and the first week in January. Bottom is around end of January, I am waiting for that point.
I think this cycle is because next two dividend are 50% smaller.
(First date is from previous year, % is my estimate from closing dates for possible short position over this period)
2000: 9 JAN - 30 JAN : -30%
2001: 26 DEC - 21 JAN: - 11%
2002: 6 JAN - 26 MAY: +50%
2003: 29 DEC - 2 FEB: -10%
2004: 4 JAN - 18 JAN: -4,7%
2005: 26 DEC - 16 JAN: -3,5%
2006: 25 DEC - 22 JAN: -4,9%
2007: 7 JAN - 14 JAN: -6,0%
2008: 6 JAN - 20 JAN: -10%
2009: 4 JAN - 4 MAY: -19%
2010: 27 DEC - 7 FEB: +6%
2011: 19 DEC - 23 JAN: -12%
2012: 25 DEC - 15 JAN: -7%
2013: 6 JAN - 27 JAN: -3%
2014: 22 DEC - 12 JAN: -5%
2015: 21 DEC - 28 DEC: -2,5%
2016: 27 DEC - 10 JAN: 0%
2017: 25 DEC - 15 JAN: +4%
2018: 30 DEC - 4 FEB: -16%
2019: 23 DEC - 20 JAN: 0%
2020: 22 DEC - APR: -30%
2021: 27 DEC - 21 FEB: -13%
2022: 26 DEC - 6 FEB: +12%