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No I don’t think it drops off the share price, fully . so I’d expect 60-90p dividend , plus maybe some share buy back.

For the share to move to c £2.50 off the back of the announcement then to drop to c £1.7 after it is ex div.

£1.7 conservative, depending on the royalities noted . A £1.7 ex dividend, it means prtc has cash to 2028 plus , royality income of several hundred million, £300m cash on b/s (even after div), and potential ipo of founding entity. Vs a market cap of £475m or so …

Seems very fair, you could argue there will be a limited drop after the ex dividend date, easily I suppose

Absolutely, a special dividend. They have cash to 2026 excluding the share payment and excluding the milestones - so would expect a good chunk of the 300 to be paid out.

I’d be looking for 60-90p a share , conservatively.

Much more if bms want to buy out the royalities.

That’s big news and soon, doubled up here now

Are you ok budddy 😂😂

Thanks golf, I agree. Also the listed market cap is $12bn currently, capturing the uncertainty there too.

Having said that, in either scenario it’s only a matter of time for prtc

Not really useful linking or posting … outdated without links

If it wasn’t for the fee; this would be very good news.

With the fee it’s not ideal. But helps present results on a proforma basis now.

Potentially more attractive to an acquirer as well.

But on the whole negative I think

What an odd exit and fee.

Why not just wait until it is sold to terminate, on transfer.

Perhaps there were performance guarantees they were failing on in their contract. Stiles me as very odd to pay away £50m… how much is the us business even worth when sold ?

Me thinks they’re waiting on Pwc to come up with a run rate EBITDA, which will be the valuation multiple.

That report will take 6-8 weeks from start to finish plus review.

Thank you.

These are very informative posts , thank you.

Do the small shareholders that have launched the suit in the us have any chance of stopping the deal ? Even if shareholder approval is granted company side ? I tried accessing the legal submission but could not , I can see if they aren’t successful they want compensation. It seems they must think they have a case , as the documents show clear inadequacies in the company disclosure eg the value of the other bidder, the conditions of management employment ?

You would think the company had their announcements reviewed by legal counsel pre circulation though .

Any thoughts ?

What’s the rationale for the short interest here ? 2.5%, is there some potential company, trading or regulatory risk in the market ?

The auditors will need an opinion on revenue recognition. The only way you can have future data impact current quarter like this is if you’re recognising future revenue … which would be either an obvious debtor on the balance sheet or some very risky recognition of the repeat revenue.

This would be a really good case for a mp to look at and understand the lack of confidence in the aim market.

If I was the debt holder, brought in I q3, with security over the patents , I would be feeling really happy right now, as clearly the covenants are at risk (see their conditions)

Love it - accidentally lied about prescription numbers to get a fund raise away, now telling the truth.

There should be a law suit here.

You can’t make it up.

It’s pretty obvious horris was trying to get people to buy to help his own position. He was saying £5 just 3 days ago.

Sorry this has fallen so far for the holders and recent value seekers

I will say the message on underlying profitability is very good. The issue will be funds that need a dividend for their portfolio policies needing to go elsewhere …

Nearly in line with my guesses as per prior posts. 2024 no dividend and 2025 dividend at risk

Horris thought you said that yesterday and back to £5?

Also what institutions are buying ? I can see one that’s selling a million a day…

Get a grip , you could hurt people

Thanks for the analysis. Devils advocate:

1) risk weighted assets is going to change, given the higher impairment environment

2) yes there is headroom, I don’t think there is a going concern risk here given your analysis . However there is a reason why banks always have far more than the minimum in reserves , look at the peer group. As such they would likely want to raise to get their headroom back or risk being below peers or even a credit risk rating change - which will again have big impacts on reserves.

Ultimately I agree, going concern isn’t a risk unles the press go wide and spook people to moving their money.

This has to settle where it would be if paying no dividend for the next 5 years for me …

If it’s abdrn plc , given the last major holdings update, they had 14m shares, probably have removed 1m since that update … 13m left to go