Member Info for RayPointer

Referring to your 15:10, the 3rd variable is the attitude of big pharma to cancer vaccines.

If you are a student of this BB you will know that Ira Mellman once tried to persuade his superiors (by superior I mean executives paid more than him) that Genentech should develop cancer vaccines only to be told "develop cancer vaccines over my dead body". This was the attitude towards cancer vaccines displayed by big Phama.
They were much more interested in TCR and Car-T.

Only now is he working towards a trail based on personalised vaccines. These require the help of a CI and each vaccine has to manufactured separately at great expense after a patient's target are determined. This is a joint Genentech/ Biontech project.

And we also have the situation where BionTech have a sophisticated TCR technology but no targets to use it on.

Will they do a deal with Scancell now or in 6 months time or 12 months time. Impossible to say.
But no doubt you can work out the probability

Now the pendulum is swinging back towards vaccines, or so we are told by James Allison (Nobel prize winner).

Sure there is a %age chance of a capital raise.
If there was no chance of a BionTech deal then the equation is much easier.
But what I am saying is that it is impossible to work out the probability of this deal happening before a cash raise is necessary. We haven't a clue when that event will take place.
Do you?

100 lines I'm afraid

"I must not misuse probability theory"

and see me after school.

But seriously, you cannot use probability in this situation.
Too many factors and too much we do not know.

I would certainly like to see your working and how you arrive at a figure of 85%.

I prefer to consult the Oracle at Delphi.

https://www.historyanswers.co.uk/ancient/oracle-of-delphi/

or failing that we could get researcher1 to consult the Lindy at Nottingham

No, Karolinska did not sit on it for a year. They worked on it and decided to extend the collaboration.

Who knows if BionTech are waiting for trial data.

And, if they are, the particular data they are looking for maybe ready quite quickly. Remember, that if moditope works, it works very quickly. Days rather than years.

Plus in the past they had a TCR collaboration with Lilley which appears to have petered out. They have not yet run their own TCR trial despite having spent a fortune developing a TCR platform.

Unlike you, I make no attempt to predict sequence of events.

you beat me to it crumbs

Knowlesi

Would you deal before trials or after?
I would suggest after if you are confident.

You yourself stated quite emphatically that it is trial data that is required echoing exactly what CH has always stated.
The exception, we hope, is a TCR deal with BionTech. That collaboration we are told by Lindy is going well. As Crumbs has pointed out many times Scancell have recently recruited a TCR expert. Scancell wouldn't be doing that if the BionTech and Karolinska collaborations were petering out.

I've bought extra garlic

I bit like doing the pools with your eyes closed

Be careful and don't catch your finger In the door when closing It.

Very well actually
They have set a new world record for share dilution.
Sorry, I couldn't resist.

I'm content with the comparisons that CH made in the Feb 18 presentation (Kite and Juno as Crumbs mentioned)

Research in the 2 companies and a comparison of their science against Scancell's means, for me, there is no elephant in my room.

If the elephant still exists in your room then think of ways of budging it.

It's not a question that particularly bothers me but it seems to worry you.
So I suggest you do the research and post it here,

But it does look good if you have a CSO with an ambition to cure all cancers.
She made a cracking start with the SCIB1 trial.
What do you think about Scancell's science Dracula?

That sounds like the SCIB1 trial to me, Rats.
I think Dracula is talking about the upcoming Modi1 trial.
Am I right Dracula?

But the 9 patients for the Modi1 trial are for the phase 1. To attempt to find the correct dose and make sure there is no likelyhood of toxic side effects.
Then for phase 2 the trial is expanded.
The regulators would always insist on a small number of patients for phase 1.

I think I was heading towards that view about 18 months ago.
"Have I made a mistake in investing in SCLP?". Instead of selling, I decided to learn more about Scancell's science and how it compares to other companies. It was an eye opener for me so I decided to hold and wait and buy more on weakness.
I don't claim to be an oncologist but if you stick at it, it begins to make sense. You get to a stage when you can compare one company's science against another.
I am a lot more comfortable with my investment now, but still not without risk for me.

The timescales of developing products and getting them through trials are frustrating but that's just par for the course. The current hold up in the SCIB1 combo trial is a prime example of this and the delay is not down to Scancell.

No easy answers I'm afraid.

ATB

How would you categorise Scancell's news and Scancell's products?

Well, I'm one to talk about good weather.
Mind you, on a clear day at Turf Moor you can just make out the other end of the ground LOL

Never underestimate what it's like to be a Hartlepool supporter.
At least in Torquay there is decent weather.