Member Info for Raydio

I went in again today. I thought my last buy at 37p was capitulation by most and was the bottom. Percentage short is not that bad compared to other companies most shorted and we only need a spark of good news on trading, divisions split, premium listing or losing golden share and not forgetting a bid of course for sentiment to change. I think this is basically a good company with headwinds like many in this economic environment. There is risk but we know that when we click on that "buy" button with any company.

I must admit that I had not considered the possibility of an approach to buy part of the business. My first thought is that it would be better for the parts to be kept altogether but that is only an immediate thought on you mentioning it. Need to think more on that. I do not have an issue with a bid from a foreign company and it going private but I would
still expect Ofcom to ensure continued regulatory involvement as with all broadcasters. I would not expect a new owner to radically change ITV's offering and risk losing its audience and possibly advertisers. You may be right in terrestrial tv coming to an end. I am aware terrestrial tv has been dropped completely in some countries but I do not see this happening for some time here. The UK does not yet have good broadband coverage in all areas though this is getting better and 5G is being rolled out. And not everyone has home broadband or access to it, but the numbers of those people is diminishing and new generations accept broadband
as essential as electricity is. Once the older generation (of which I include myself) passes on most, if not all, will have broadband at home or via cellular means. (I just have a large tablet with sim card so get connectivity whenever and wherever I am and have an ordinary TV). I do not see see terrestrial tv going for many years but that is just my opinion. We agree ITV studio is good at producing good content. With its library content and and ITV's large audience, with the current low SP and week pound I feel some are at least casting an eye over ITV.
I am 70 and have embraced technology when I have to or see the need/benefits. One day I may get a smart tv and home broadband and possibly wonder why I relied on terrestrial tv! Welcomed your response to my post. Good posts and responses stimulate debates during which we can review our thoughts and opinions and make us aware of points we had not even thought about.

ITV is the biggest and most popular commercial TV channel in the UK. ITV and its predecessor regional channels, have contended with BBC for the status of the most watched TV channel since the 50's. However in line with other terrestrial channels, ITV's audience share has fallen as a result of availability of multi channel TV in the UK. Still stats show 79% of all viewers watch traditional TV at least once a week. There will always be a need for scheduled main stream traditional TV service by many and ITV is well positioned with its studio production facility providing content that sells all over the world for decades to come. Let us not forget that huge library of programme content that ITV owns that must be worth a lot. Repeat dramas and popular comedy programmes are timeless and though older people view as watchable repeats, for younger viewers it will be their first time viewing. Figures show programmes are watched on streaming 34.8% of the time, 34% on cable and 21% on traditional terrestrial TV. So though there has been a shift terrestrial is no where near anything terminal. I have held ( and traded in ITV) for years. I like dramas produced by ITV and watch on freeview. I am convinced (well,optimistic shall we say) a bid will come or the true value of ITV will materialise over time. The dividend expectations should keep the SP around the present price and I do not see any downside much from here. If there is a general market crash I shall buy more ITV to add to my holdings. Been buying recently to add at 68/66/57. ITV is among my top 3 holdings in each of the 3 portfolios I have for different reasons. I have never wavered in my belief this will be profitable, it's just a question of when!
I have invested/traded since the 1980's and fully aware through hard learned experience nothing is guaranteed and optimism is swept away by events sometimes. Hope springs eternal but not all hopes and dreams come to fruition. Do not invest money you are not prepared to lose if the worst happens. Always keep some cash or for emergencies and expected life events away from investments so you are not a forced seller if the market turns against your investments. Longer term markets usually bounce back though some company shares will not.

The fall today following results must have been capitulation for many that were holding on for better results. I did not view the results in the current climate as bad. If today was the final capitulation then, unless the shorters see any reason to see worse things at Boohoo they will have to close by buying in the market. If they choose to buy and close they may have to act quickly as the SP is moving up and not down. There must be many who see Boohoo around for many years and sensing we are really at the bottom for the SP and bought in or bought more today as I did at 33+p

I recently said we would never see 37p again. Well the market turmoil today saw it go under 37p. Though I am getting a little twitchy about the relentless fall I am putting the fall today down to the general market situation. I bought more. I do feel a bit twitchy though and need stability to be seen (if not a swift turnaround) both in THG business and the market generally to negate an erosion in my optimism which is being buffeted. I am sure I am in good company! Let us hope this really is capitulation time.

After the fall on March when ITV share price was circa 73p ITV had a mkt cap of circa £2.95 billion. At the then exchange rate of circa $1.3 dollars to the pound the market value was $3.83 billion dollars. At today's circa 60p share price the market cap is £2.43 billion. (Circa half a billion £ less). At todays exchange rate of $1.07 to the pound the market cap is circa $3.28 billion. Someone on the other side of the pond must at least be looking at ITV which is profitable with a low P/E. I also believe those directors who bought after the fall believing in the long term strategic plan would think ITV could be in the frame for a takeover so investment loss risk would not be too great, if at all.
I have held for years in the belief ITV would fall to a predator and now it really does seem the right time for a pounce. We shall see. Hope so! Last bought at 61p.

According to Simply Wall Street article this morning analysts target prices have been reduced since reporting. Range is 340p down to 45p. Included in the report is THG has a cash runway of just 1 year on current spending but 3 years if current spend is reduced in line with % reduction in spend in recent years. Despite noting Investors Chronicle advising Sell (from Hold) I see THG still around at a much higher price in years to come (or sooner on any positive developments with golden share going in 2023, a possible upgrade to main market index, governance issues fading into the background and possible bid interests, separate listing of division(s) and further deals) If the lows of this week last week are not the "capitulation" by investors I will be surprised. Unless there is a dramatic worsening of the economy from here and/or some "black swan" event hitting THG I expect to see a rising share price in the medium/longer term. Although there will be swings up and down I do not expect to see the low of circa 37p again.

Further to my comment at 10.01am todayI have just noted Jon Smith of Motley Fool has made some fair comments about THG which reinforces the viewpoint I have about THG. Jon says it is basically a good business with temporary headwinds, albeit that won't be resolved soon. He says he will invest at some point but not now. I personally doubt he will get much of a better price than today. And which member sold at 38.01 this morning in the hope of buying back later? In the words heard in the film "Pretty Woman" ........ "Big Mistake" in my opinion...... but we shall see. In hindsight though I think we all wish we sold on the bid news earlier this year.

I can hardly believe it was less than a year ago when I made my first THG purchase at 328p on 21/10/21. This was
followed with purchases at 275, 244, 222, 204, 179, 166, 156, 130, 136, (95 then sold at 157 after bid interest), (89 then sold at 144 after bid interest), 88, (70 then sold at 80), then a long gap till I bought yesterday at 51, then 42 today. (Prices shown ignore the decimal point bits).
I always sell part of my holdings on news of a bid or bid interest talk as they do not always come to fruition. Gains made cushion any losses but despite my sales during bid interest I am well down like many. But my optimism for the longer term health of THG has not wavered despite governance, golden share, PR issues and being way down on my investment in THG. Once we have the golden share out of the way, going into the premium FTSE listing and the cost of living and energy crisis pass and inflation having peaked/subsiding I think we shall see THG fortunes changing. This is a medium/long term view which is the best view to have. Yes, the company could fail but we know that could happen with any company whose shares we buy in the market. The statement "remains on track to becoming free cash flow neutral 2023 and significant free cash flow positive in FY 2024 I regard as showing the Board know where they are heading despite the headwinds. Yes it can get blown off track with external influences but it's not off the rails in my opinion. Being 70 I have seen share prices collapse only to see that dramatically rise up from the seemingly endless falls (though some do not of course - Polly Peck over 30 years ago and Debenhams more recently were two that affected me). Going private has no fears for me so long as I can retain my shares whilst privately operating. Means my money is tied up and more difficult to realise for a long time but on coming back to the market it is more often than not favourable. I have experienced this to advantage. Happy to stay in THG and buy more but can hardly believe my note book shows comments like "fall overdone" "surely this is the bottom" and similar comments with each purchase at much higher prices over 11 months. I have seen 328 SP drop to 42p earlier today when I bought again. Not good, but I am pretty sure, well at least optimistic, we will be a lot higher eventually. Today's fall is surely the "capitulation" another member said earlier this morning. Well let's all hope so!

I tend to agree with member Pomegranate. Something will (I hope) send the ITV share price up. I believe the decision to pump so much money into a new streaming service was ill timed with so many streaming services seeking more eyeballs/subscriptions, more so now considering the cost of living increases depleting many disposable incomes now. However the cost of living crisis hopefully is transitory hopefully. I have been in ITV for years, always had a large holding for long term and other holdings for trading on volatility. I find usually trading profits cushion falls until the market moves in favour of the longer term holdings (hopefully! does not always happen). What I like about ITV is that it has a profitable production facility and has a library of TV content the likes which many must envy (hopefully). I thought ITV would receive takeover bids when the price crashed during the pandemic crash of 2020 and thought if it did not happen then it never would. But now I think ITV is in a better place then then and it is only the decision to pump money into a new streaming service that has put off investors (understandably). But I will be only too happy to be proved wrong if the new streaming service is a success. However if a bid came the bidder would not only have access to all that library content and if the bidder is a company that already offers streaming they could terminate ITV's new streaming funding and redirect into their bottom line. If ITV was well over £1 before the decision to set up the new streaming service I see no reason why media companies should not see value in making an approach. That is my take on ITV and remain optimistic. I am 70, don't stream but have been thinking of trialling Britbox, so I am not a youngster who regularly streams rather than watch live ITV. But ITV makes its own content which sells all over the world, is profitable, watched by millions live still by young and old with popular programme winners and going nowhere, except perhaps into the lair of of a predator at some point. I guess that will happen if they fight off the other predators which will come out to play once someone makes a move. Been optimistic and in wait mode for so long now and not giving up now. Big buys by insiders after the fall to the 70's I saw as a positive as well and we are not that much down considering market falls recently.

Re my last post. I notice I put 70 THG shares. I was thinking of my last purchase of shares at 70p. I have substantially more than 70 shares.

Not being knowledgeable or interested in Status Quo I was curious what song was being referred to. Looking up on the internet I see "down down" as a song. Very apt. I trade shares in companies I have long term holdings in as well. I find in most cases trading profits on volatility cushions falls. I sold some on the bid news but still find myself well down on original investment like most. I still am optimistic. There was (and hopefully still is) interest in this company from potential buyers and those that walked away can come back after the regulatory time period when they cannot (unless a another suitor bids, then they can re-enter). We do need updates on trading, cash, the golden share and listing upgrading. My retained 12 purchases of 70 THG shares have been bought at levels from 328p down to 70p. I am reluctant to buy more without news but believe catalysts will come at some point, possibly not in days or weeks but look forward to seeing THG share price surge on that news and then I can sing the song "up up and away" by 5th Dimension. We all hope and dream but if "you don't have a dream, how you going to have a dream come true"

I agree that it was nice to see DLG being proactive with an update. Further to my purchase last week at 214.44 I have added this morning. The confirmation that the 7.6p interim dividend is reassuring and it seems DLG has already been taking steps proactively to address the inflationary trends affecting the motor claims side. Though nothing is guaranteed I still like this diversified company and am happy to include it in my portfolio. At 186 now I regard this as an overdone fall.

Many years ago I was confidently fully invested until the inevitable happened....the market fell and there was nothing I could do but watch all those opportunities appear whilst my stock valuations fell overall. Hard lesson to learn but in hindsight it was a turning point in my strategy. I always have a cash pile to hand for "opportunities" (or what I perceive as wonderful opportunities! Some still turn out to be duds!). I buy stocks for the long term but buy some for short term trading which I sell to provide/maintain cash for "opportunities" (or what I perceive as opportunities". I suggest also that the investment cash pile is separate to cash savings for "unexpected life events" so you don't have to use the investment cash pile or sell investments at a loss if they are not doing well at the time of the unexpected life event. In 40 years of investing I have learnt many things the hard way. I stuck at investing, find it fun and absorbing, try to be be diversified (not always successful!) and work towards taking emotion out investing. (Pretty good at that now. The 1987 crash was dreadful for me but that experience and other events that made me rethink strategy held me in good stead when the pandemic crash in early 2020 came. I bought as much as I could using my cash pile in the belief a vaccine would be found. It was found and the started a massive rebound. Regarding Direct Line I went and bought today at 214.44. Never bought Direct Line before and been on my watchlist for a year. If the results coming up in the near future are not as good as expected I cannot see DLG cutting its dividend significantly. Even if a cut came I guess the resulting dividend will still be above the market average and with today's fall in the SP bad news is priced in.

I concur with the sentiments here. I have considerably more than 18 company stocks. I buy a core holding of shares in a company for the longer term but also buy a holding specifically for trading. Sell them for modest/even small profits and buy back if the share price falls. Don't always get it right but it works more times than the failures. Has not worked with THG with its relentless fall but on the other hand I have more shares to take advantage of the eventual rise that I believe will come. I did sell some of my trading block of shares at 111p last week in the bounce for a modest profit (may buy back) but overall, like most LTH's in THG am underwater. But the THG share price is undervalued in my opinion and will go up when a split of the businesses comes, an entry to the premium market takes place or a sensible bid comes. I hold tightly. On the other side of the coin if global markets collapse, THG will fall as well but being in the stock market we know the risks, but long term holders ride out storms and don't sell at the worst time. Time in the market is what works and not timing the market. THG share price has had a torrid time, comparing it to submarine with power difficulties and dropping towards to the sea bed. Well I believe things are getting sorted, we hit the sea bed and having bounced along the sea bed are about to rise up again.

Like most people I was surprised and perplexed when the share price fell back to circa £2 after the result of the tender offer. I have always had an interest in Cairn/Capricorn for some years and did not offer any of my shares in the tender offer. In hindsight it may have been wise as I could buy them back cheaper. But at the time of the offer I only saw positiveness beyond the offer result. Well we saw a fall in the share price instead. I am reassured longer term after I read the article from Proactive issued at 14.38 on Thursday 7th April. In it, they say Barclays analysts give an overweight rating and a price target of 315p, explains how 40,000 barrels of oil per day are in the valuation for free. It also mentions how some investors saw the tender offer as an opportunity to "exit" and because of the oversubscription there is likely to be an overhang of shares to be sold. Once this overhang is out of the way, along with the buy back the share price I believe will find the higher value it deserves to be. Otherwise it could be a takeover target? Obviously if the oil price collapses or there is bad news on exploration the reverse could happen, but we all know that could happen if we invest in an oil/gas exploration company. Hanging in for the ride up. I would put the Proactive news item link in if I knew how to do it (I am 70 and not tech savvy) but if you search Proactive Capricorn, then under the "News" heading you should find the article "Capricorn tipped for 52% upside" that I found reassuring.

My first post. Been buying small blocks of THG shares regularly during the falls since £3+.
Have bought again at 95+. I think THG will be around for a long time. We know MM is relinquishing his right to block a takeover and intends to appoint a chairman (who hopefully will have good communication skills with the City and Shareholders. Unless we have any bad news I expect we are at or near the bottom. Any positive news on the Chairman appointment/trading/interest in the company or taking it private can only result in a dramatic turn around in the shareprice enhanced more so as short sellers buy to close their positions. I note the comment made about inflation and retailers generally falling. I have shares in M & S which have fallen a lot from recent highs and some of the fall in THG may be due to inflation concerns and pressure on people's incomes but I just feel it is a company that is going to be around for a long time and is currently severely oversold and it is only a matter of time before it swings positively up a lot (unless a low ball offer to take it private is made). I am also in Boohoo which I think, like THG is going through selling pressure but the tide will turn if it gets through its short term headwinds. Hope springs eternal is my current motto. Let me see my hope rewarded please! Fortunately I moved cash into the market in April 2020 and sold in the months after November 2020 and still remain 50% in cash, so can take advantage of falling prices, I just hope it is not a falling knife or an open drain I am putting my money into. Best of luck to fellow holders of THG.