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Some good news for all companies as demand is forecast upwards.
US bank GoldmanSachs has raised its forecast for global oil demand this year, driven by a firmer economic outlook in the US and India. It now sees demand averaging 101.8mn b/d in 2023, up around 550k b/d vs its previous forecast and 1.5mn b/d vs its 2022 estimate.
Assume another release from the spr.
Going back to the rns is this adjacent tank to 4s a oil storage tank? and it's vapour from this triggering the alarm in 4s, we don't know and if gas can transfer from one tank to the other is it possible for water to go the other way? badly written communication after stating better communication with pi's is necessary to restore confidence.
The only saving grace here is the upcoming development of the gas project and the increased revenue that will bring, it should be noted if that project didn't exist then the issues with the fpso wouldn't be as big a deal as jse would still be cash rich there is a lot of capex being spent which in time will push Montara importance as a cash generator down the pecking order.
I would laugh if this turned out to be a faulty alarm, with what has gone on here you could never rule it out.
The problem is that until climate change due co2 is revealed to be a hoax which it is, the Greenland ice cores show co2 increases after warming not the other way round, then our politicians will follow the corrupted science and wrongfully target any fuel that goes against their misguided agenda whether gas coal or oil.
All our institutions are corrupted unis, medical, media, climate the list is endless just have a look at were their funding comes from to see this.
All the evidence is out there, the wft is a farce when given thought, if some item was increasing in price to bring it back in line you would normally produce more not ensure by a ridiculous tax regime we would get less.
I don't for one minute think our politicians don't know this so it's all a planned agenda which seems like a conspiracy but I can't come to another conclusion.
Not the best written rns imo, what does the woffle actually mean? that there is a hole in the tank wall with an adjacent tank letting gas seep into ballast water tank 4s and that is why the alarm went off, as it should do.
Communication between tanks? what's that a hole or failed repair? appropriate repairs suggests more welding to a tank that was inspected and repaired by Nov 22 see rns dated 17th Nov 2022.
Is this bad luck, or is the fspo a rust bucket? or the repair crew not having their welds non destructive tested?
All is not well management under severe pressure with this incident which suggests even when this is repaired how long before something else crops up which to my mind means more resources on the fspo to deal with planned maintenance at higher levels than would normally be expected until full confidence in it's operation has been proven.
This is a good example of never putting your eggs all in one basket regardless of how promising the investment case or reputation of the management, like footballers your only as good as your last match.
For reference those who think the World Bank and the IMF have no influence in Nigeria.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-gets-world-bank-funding-social-program-ahead-fuel-subsidy-cut-2023-04-05/
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/580711-imf-urges-nigerian-govt-to-remove-fuel-subsidy-by-mid-2023.html
I think there are a few things to ponder over in those results, the company seems to be well run, keeping an eye on opportunities to refinance or pay off debt early which is good seeing net debt has increased.
$20m costs for the litigation expenses, let's hope we have seen the back of those, and the increase change to capex I see as good.
The overlift is part of jointly run operations so nothing untoward there, i can't see what the non cash adjusted items to EBITDA are, with the reduced operating profit down to lower oil prices and FX losses.
Drilling is a bit behind schedule, with a recovery programme implemented.
Not long to wait for the ANOH gas processing plant now over 93% complete.
The MPNU transaction still ongoing with the board confident.
Guidance maintained, with hedging minimal.
Dividend declared US 3cents.
As I have stated previously my concern is not Sepl the company but Nigeria as a country and that is were I will be be watching.
What I am suggesting is that Nigeria is a very high risk and volatile country right now torn between on one hand the World Bank and IMF driven by US influences which currently has the upper hand, or alternatively a change of direction towards China and the Brics nations which is gathering pace with every passing day as the world splits between the pro West and pro East.
If the population decides enough is enough then destabilisation is heading Nigeria's way.
Top slicing is definitely on my agenda, whereas if this was a stable jurisdiction then I wouldn't consider it, it's ironic as Sepl goes from strength to strength to country certainly isn't.
If Nigerian economy collapses due to this fuel subsidy being stopped then imo it will be reinstated in some form or other out of necessity.
Politically the Brics might seem appealing to many in Nigeria be interesting to see how this plays out.
We have had a fantastic run of late sp wise and long may that continue, however the removal of the petrol/fuel subsidy in Nigeria is having a huge impact on the population I can't help but wonder if it should have been reduced significantly rather than stopped. Seems like a IMF type of stipulation to me.
Can't help but think that this won't be the end, and they need to introduce something to help the population or any growth they were hoping for internally will slump into contraction and recession which ultimately will not be good for Sepl making large profits while the population is struggling.
Link is one idea to assist, if do a search there are plenty of alternative opinions out there about what should be done.
My takeaway is although Sepl is undergoing a revival Nigeria itself is going though a fundamental change, I hope the government will be able to deliver.
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/07/fuel-subsidy-fg-should-encourage-utilisation-of-gas-as-substitute-naee/
Profit down 49% from Q3, in Q4 Rh average $6750 now down around $4k, cash balance very healthy, rebound in Rh prices would be welcome.
Doesn't make sense the Rh price so low demand from ice manufacturers is picking up, suggests over supply which from everything I've read it isn't unless there has been a dump from somewhere to reduce prices, at some point that will be worked through with demand forcing prices higher.
Watching for PGM price movement.
Every confidence in management to sort out all the current issues at Blanket to get us back on track, they have over years encountered every issue you could possibly think of yet still managed to progress and develop the current mine.
Bilboes is where maybe their experience will be tested the most, this is something away from their usual everyday routine, but it is the most interesting, nice to see the sp stable I thought it might be more volatile than it has been due setbacks at Blanket and Bilboes, although as stated the earthworks need to be shifted in any event it's just a shame they couldn't make money doing it.
Can you not read, because if you could you would see that there is huge capex expenditures regarding Akatara, plus the infill drilling campaign, we all know about the Montara disaster and loss of revenue.
So what's the I am so surprised at the situation here reaction.
Capital expenditure: US$110-140 million, with the majority to be spent in the second half of 2023 due to the timing and phasing of spend on the Akatara development project and the East Belumut infill drilling campaign.
I listened the presentation what came across to me was that the gas project is the most significant driver but also the biggest risk, being designed and built from scratch there are numerous things that could throw a spanner in the works thus delaying production, it's rare for a project to hit the ground running without teething problems so that's what I am expecting.
With oil on the move upwards, production now normalised/stable and the shuttle tanker due to end it's charter all should help ease the financial burden on the company even though we are hedged for a fair proportion of production.
Yes, kmr always seem to put a dampener on whatever update they are reporting some caveat as to why the future looks gloomy, we've had all the excuses, prices weak, possible recession, barge in for planned maintenance therefore hitting revenues in quarter, waste of cash when we had the tender offer but also debt, the rps project cost a bob or two but we haven't seen much from it up to now. I will let them off with lightening strike, slimes problems as though it was something unexpected, thus hitting production.
The list is endless for a mine with 100 years of life going forward it's as I have stated before it's almost as though they do it by design, to detract from what superb asset this is.
Experience here has taught me to trade this which is against my usual nature, great asset but there's always something .
A while back I mentioned selling out on a high and wait for the next wcp move to be completed which is what I have done with half my holding I was tempted to buy it back since it's been drifting lower perhaps it's heading a little lower now.
Considering all that's gone on with the mud slinging at Sepl they are now recognised as being an example to others you couldn't make it up, to top it off Roger Brown is personality of the year.
Seplat Energy Plc, a leading Nigerian independent energy company listed on both the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) has emerged as the winner of the ‘Excellence in Energy Leadership Company of the Year 2023’ award at the Excel Africa Excellence in Corporate Enterprise and Leadership Awards.
Its Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Roger Brown was also named the ‘Energy Personality of the Year 2023’.
The company was said to have delivered an excellent performance for the period under review, with strong cash generation enabling significant value creation for its stakeholders.
Great update again, very nice cash position plus hefty position for use with indigenous population, more wells to be drilled, just hope they will be able to sell all they produce.
Amazing how they manage to bob and weave through most of the problems that face them and come out in front never a dull moment here although expect your heart to miss a beat now and again.
i stand corrected on your statement of near break even on current pgm prices just looked at my *** packet calcs and missed a decimal point i had them at £27m for a full year but it is £2.7m, that's a shock old age and all that.
hope i am wrong i'll look again.
Postponing or cancelling the buyback programme is a certainty under current
conditions, when they officially announce that in conjunction with a significant dividend cut i expect the sp to respond accordingly downwards.
That imo is a buying opportunity in a rising inflationary world a company still making money with no debt is a good company to be in.
I note your comments on payments which would be wise to change, I don't however see them at close to break even at current PGM prices they are doing better than that.