RE: dsfat12 Jul 2018 22:14
Hi Daramuda,
Ultimately everyone has different analytical approaches, different views, risk and reward profiles and ALBA is one of the more risky choices no doubt. However i’m taking a view that across its portfolio but mainly HH and TBS focused that the value will be higher in the future than it is today and will be driven by incremental development of those assets via JORC, positive EWT results etc etc. Currently the majority of the ALBA SP is based on HH and I believe that any initial JORC from TBS will add further value, how much is TBC.
ALBA is like a remora fish. It is tracking Bluejays progress to further it’s own goals but fully acknowledge JAY has first mover advantage in that they choose their preferred license, have a JORC, are better financed, have better shareholder backing in terms of institutional support and are closer to making production a reality.
To your points about ‘far inferior purity and consistency’. The previous ALBA samples have shown high grades although the sampling was limited. I would accept that consistency is simply unknown at the moment due to the very small field season they did last year. Please share any details of inferior purity tests as I have not come across these?
Marine protected sites – Remember they hunt whales etc in that part of the world at certain times of the year so protected areas might apply to fishing for example or certain times of year etc. There are a large variety of areas that have been confirmed as important sites for breeding and the habitation of various land and water species in the area. There are areas in and around JAY license as well but both these license areas are dozens of km long so I think it is fair to say both companies need to provide more visibility around these such potential issues. EIS in due course should help here.
Mountains – The whole area lacks basic accessibility and therefore I believe most transportation will be done by boat and in the field seasons. I don’t expect the mountains near either JAY or ALBA licenses to be a game changing issue when they are using boats to transport most kit now anyway and the proposed settlement will be on the raised beach etc with basically nowhere to go.
As for the future of TBS for Alba well I think it is unlikely that 30-50km of coast line is going to be turned into a site of two giant mining operations in competition, possible but I think unlikely. One of the biggest issues will be the ice melt and how much time of the year mining can actually take place. However, that does not mean ALBA cannot increase their TBS value by doing a maiden JORC etc.If they do that and it is positive that should be reflected in the SP. Additionally I believe JAY will be taken out once the project is de-risked further and the feasibility study demonstrates the project is viable and they get an exploitation license. This is for several reasons, they have the largest resource deposit in the world apparently (more of the license st